Dolphins vs. Ravens Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Dolphins and Ravens on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: We thought we were going to see Jackson last week, but he was ultimately held out.

There were whispers that this Thursday night turnaround was part of the giving Jackson one more week off, but John Harbaugh said on Monday that he “expects Jackson to be out there Thursday.”

We will take him at his word to open the week and then adjust if the rug gets pulled on us again.

Jackson’s return is a significant boost for the offense.

Baltimore was averaging a robust 6.5 yards per play on the 191 snaps Jackson was on the field to open the year, compared to 5.1 yards per play on the 193 snaps he has missed.

That is the difference between being first in the NFL in yards per play and 24th.

If Jackson is back on the field, he climbs right back to the top of the QB1 options.

Jackson scored over 25 fantasy points in his three complete games.

We may not see Jackson cut things loose as a runner returning from a hamstring injury, but he can get over as a passer in this matchup.

Miami is 22nd in pressure rate (33.7%) despite blitzing at the fifth-highest rate (33.1%).

40% of their blitzes generate pressure, which is 22nd in the league.

When Miami has failed to get pressure, they have allowed a 79.3% completion rate (31st), 7.6 yards per pass attempt (19th), and a 5.5% touchdown rate (18th).

Even when the Dolphins have gotten pressure, they have allowed a 58.3% completion rate (30th), 7.5 Y/A (31st), with a 3.3% touchdown rate (16th).

The Dolphins have had a reprieve of late, facing Bryce Young, Dillon Gabriel, and Kirk Cousins in three of their past four games.

This will be a larger test, even if Jackson has some rust to shake off.

If Jackson has no restrictions with his legs, the Dolphins have allowed a league-high 5.3 rushing points per game to quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa bounced back from a nightmare outing in Week 7, connecting on 20 of 26 passes (76.9%) for 205 yards (7.9 Y/A) and a season-high 4 touchdowns Sunday in Atlanta.

That was his best fantasy game of the year, following a week in which he scored negative fantasy points.

That was only his second QB1 scoring week of the season, so we will still enter this week handling Tua as a QB2.

We just saw this passing offense do next to nothing the previous two weeks, so Tua will have to mount some consistency before he is a trustworthy streamer.

But last Sunday did provide a short-term boost in confidence for 2QB gamers.

As bad as the vibes are surrounding Maimi in bulk, they have found a way to score 21-plus points in six of their past seven games, with that performance in the rain in Cleveland being the exception.

With Tua, it always comes down to moving him off his first read.

Tagovailoa is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt on his first-read throws compared to 6.4 Y/A when he is moved off his first look per Fantasy Points Data.

We have been talking about Baltimore’s season-long defensive metrics not accurately reflecting what they may be moving forward, given the number of early-season injuries they have endured.

We are still trying to figure out where this defense will settle.

In the past two games, they have gotten key pieces back and have looked improved, limiting Matthew Stafford (QB24) and Caleb Williams (QB19) to back-end QB2 scoring weeks.

They allowed 11.2 and 9.4 passing points in the past two games after allowing 20.8 prior.

They are still struggling to generate pressure, ranking 29th in pressure rate over those weeks (27.1%), but we saw something similar from this unit a year ago when they started the season terribly and then found their footing as things progressed.

A key change they have made over the past two weeks is deploying three safeties as part of their base defense, using Kyle Hamilton as a Swiss Army knife alongside Alohi Gilman and rookie Malaki Starks.

Hamilton has been everywhere.

He played 18 snaps in the box on Sunday, playing linebacker on 19 snaps.

He played another 24 snaps at slot corner and 2 snaps out wide.

Hamilton rushed the passer on a season-high 8 snaps.

Running Back

Derrick Henry (TRUST): Henry is coming off 21 touches for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday.

It was the second consecutive game in which Henry reached 20 touches.

With Jackson returning from a four-week absence, Henry should be the focal point of things if Baltimore plays from ahead.

Henry handled 80.8% of the backfield touches on Sunday, his highest rate since Week 3.

When Baltimore has been ahead on the scoreboard, Henry has played 56.3% of the snaps compared to 48.4% when trailing.

When Henry is on the field, he is getting the football.

The Ravens have run the ball on 59.9% of Henry’s snaps this season, the highest rate for any running back.

Henry was not overly efficient last week, but Jackson’s return could help improve that.

Henry has rushed for 5.9 yards per carry with Jackson on the field this season compared to 3.7 YPC with him absent.

Miami has played the run better in recent weeks to keep us honest, limiting Bijan Robinson to 2.8 yards per rush on Sunday and Quinshon Judkins to 3.4 YPC in Week 7.

We will see if they can hold up again here against another run-heavy offense.

Even with the past two weeks of efficiency factored in, Miami has allowed 5.0 YPC to running backs on the season (27th) and 117.6 rushing yards per game (30th) to backfields.

De’Von Achane: Achane remained a steady RB1 scorer on Sunday, turning a season-high 23 touches into 91 total yards and a touchdown.

Achane rushed 18 times for 67 yards (3.7 YPC), catching 5 of 7 targets for 24 yards and a touchdown.

Achane can hit long plays, but even when his rushing efficiency is limited, his receiving role keeps him afloat as a weekly RB1.

Achane has 20.7% of Miami's targets, which only trails Christian McCaffrey (25.8%).

His 4.6 receptions per game are fourth among running backs, while he leads the position with 4 receiving scores.

That red zone role has been steady throughout his career.

That score on Sunday was his 13th receiving touchdown over 36 career games.

We have seen Baltimore get players back in its secondary to help turn the tide in recent weeks.

The Ravens have allowed 3.9 YPC to running backs these past two games against the Bears and Rams after allowing 4.8 YPC to backfields over the opening five weeks (26th).

They still have been shaky to backs out of the backfield, which is Achane’s strength.

Baltimore is allowing 10.2 receiving points per game (24th) to running backs.

Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle (TRUST): After a 1-catch outing in Week 7, Waddle rebounded on Sunday, catching 5 of 6 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown, a 43-yard catch and run to the end zone.

Since Tyreek Hill was lost for the season, Waddle has had at least 95 yards in three of those four games.

Over those four weeks, Waddle is WR23 in target share (22.3%) but leads all wide receivers in share of air yards (53%).

His 2.85 yards per route run are WR4 over that stretch.

Waddle has had receptions of 46, 45, and 43 yards in those games.

Despite the improvements we have seen in Baltimore in recent weeks, they are still giving up production to their lead receivers.

Coming off allowing 7 catches and 114 yards to Rome Odunze on Sunday, the Ravens are 23rd in points allowed per game to WR1 targets (15.8), allowing 9.0 yards per target (24th) to lead receivers.

Zay Flowers: Flowers caught 7 of 9 targets for 63 yards on Sunday.

He has found a stable floor this season, catching at least 5 passes in every game but one this season.

Flowers is averaging a career-high 7.9 targets per game.

He has 30.7% of Baltimore's targets (WR4) and 35.6% of the air yards (WR15).

Getting Lamar Jackson back can open up his ceiling as an upside WR2 who can reach WR1 output if Baltimore increases his usage near the end zone.

Flowers has 31.9% of the team’s targets outside of the red zone (WR4) but only 18.8% in the red zone (WR34).

Flowers only has 1 end zone target.

Miami has allowed an 8.0% touchdown rate to WR1 targets, 25th in the league.

The Dolphins run a mix of coverages, leading the league in Cover 2 rate (23.4%) but also playing man coverage on 26.4% (11th).

Flowers only has 21.4% of the targets and 0.51 yards per route against Cover 2 looks, but 33.3% of the targets and 3.09 yards per route run against man coverage.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman is a touchdown-dependent option for single-game DFS.

He has more than 2 receptions in just one game this season.

Going back to last season, he has had one top-40 scoring week without a touchdown.

Malik Washington: Washington grabbed 4 of 5 targets for 36 yards and his first touchdown on Sunday.

Those 36 yards were a season high, so Washington is still a FLEX option for deeper formats.

Washington has been targeted on at least 20% of his routes in all four games since Hill’s injury, with at least 4 receptions in three straight games.

There is some floor here in full-PPR formats, but not much ceiling.

Washington has been on the field for fewer than two-thirds of the dropbacks in three of those four games since he does not play in one or two receiver sets.

Washington has been on the field for 29 total routes this season in 1-2WR sets (25.7% of the team total).

Tight End

Ravens TEs: For the second straight game, Isaiah Likely ran more pass routes (60% of the dropbacks) than Mark Andrews (56%).

Both of these tight ends are touchdown-dependent TE2 options since they are eating opportunities from each other as full-time players.

Likely has only 5 receptions for 26 yards since returning to the lineup, but has not played much with Jackson.

Andrews has had only one TE1-scoring week this season.

After averaging 39.6 yards per game last season, Andrews is down to 29.7 yards per game this season.

Jackson’s return does add a spark for those chasing a touchdown here.

Andrews leads Baltimore with 25% of the targets in the red zone.

This is a strong matchup for the tight end position as a group.

Miami has allowed 8.5 yards per target (26th) and an 83.3% completion rate (30th) to tight ends.

Tight ends have 30.3% of the receptions allowed by the Dolphins, the third-highest rate in the league.

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