The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Bears and Saints.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 18.5 | 28 | Points/Gm | 25.2 | 10 |
| 26.7 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 28.2 | 27 |
| 64.0 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 15 |
| 61.3 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 57.2 | 8 |
| 4.8 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 15 |
| 5.3 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.5 | 32 |
| 43.23% | 20 | Rush% | 43.97% | 17 |
| 56.77% | 13 | Pass% | 56.03% | 16 |
| 48.37% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 48.25% | 27 |
| 51.63% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 51.75% | 6 |
- New Orleans has trailed for a league-high 87.5% of their offensive snaps.
- The Saints have been outscored 65-16 (-49 points) in the first quarter this season, the worst margin in the league.
- The Bears average 2.47 points per drive in the first quarter (4th) compared to 2.05 points per drive afterwards (19th).
- The Saints are allowing 2.51 points per drive (27th).
- 39.1% (9 of 23) of New Orleans' scoring plays have been touchdowns, ahead of only the Titans (26.3%).
- Chicago has a takeaway on 21.4% of opponent drives, the highest rate in the league.
- On drives without a takeaway, the Bears are allowing 3.20 points per drive, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Caleb Williams (TRUST): Out of the bye, Chicago used pre-snap motion on a season-high 63.6% of dropbacks with a season-high 44.8% play-action rate.
If the run game can be as good as it was in Week 6 moving forward, Williams will be put in successful spots.
Williams has not been perfect by any means, but he has found himself to three QB1 scoring weeks over the opening five games this season.
Accuracy concerns and handling pressure have been looming issues for Williams.
His 61.6% completion rate ranks 29th in the league, and it is 9.9% below expectations, the worst differential in the league.
His 16.4% inaccurate throw rate is the highest in the league.
Williams is completing 47.8% of his passes (21st) when pressured for 4.8 yards per pass attempt.
When kept clean, his 113.5 rating is 11th in the NFL.
From a clean pocket, Williams has still had accuracy issues (his 67.3% completion rate is 30th), but his 8.5 yards per attempt are sixth, while he has thrown 8 touchdowns to only 1 interception from a clean pocket.
That is relevant here as the Saints are 27th in pressure rate (31.1%).
When the Saints have not pressured the opposing passer, they have allowed a 75% completion rate (22nd) and an 8.8% touchdown rate (30th).
If those motion and play-action rates from Week 6 are static for Williams, that is a plus here.
The Saints are allowing 8.7 yards per attempt on play-action passes (24th) with an 8% touchdown rate (20th).
They are allowing 8.8 Y/A on plays with motion (29th) with a league-high 11.3% touchdown rate.
New Orleans has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in all six games this season, allowing 17.3 passing points per game (30th).
The Saints are also 29th in rushing points allowed per game (29.0) to quarterbacks, allowing Kyler Murray (38), Josh Allen (45), Jaxson Dart (55), and Drake Maye (28) to tack on rushing production with their touchdowns.
Williams has a flop on his resume this year against the Raiders to keep us honest and remind us that he is still volatile, but his status as a home favorite here with a 26-point team total offers a strong game environment to chase a ceiling outcome.
Spencer Rattler: Rattler has shown some floor ability this season.
He is completing 68.5% of his passes (13th) and has set season highs in yards per pass attempt in each of the past two weeks.
He only has 1 interception, and 13.8% of his dropbacks have resulted in a loss of -1.0 EPA or worse (QB10).
He also has rushed for 20 or more yards in three straight games.
What has held Rattler back from a fantasy stance is that he has 1 or fewer touchdown passes in every game but one.
The Bears have been a turnover machine over their past three games, but when they have not been able to generate takeaways, the true underbelly of this defense has been exploitable.
Chicago is allowing a 73.6% completion rate (31st), 7.8 Y/A (27th), and a league-high 9.3% touchdown rate.
Rattler has protected the football, giving him runway to be a matchup-based QB2 here.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Bengals | Thursday Night Football |
| Rams @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Lions | Monday Night Football |
| Texans @ Seahawks | Monday Night Football |