Vikings vs Commanders Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders Sunday afternoon game.

• The Vikings are allowing 11.9 yards per completed pass (26th) while the Commanders are allowing 12.4 yards per completion (29th).
• Washington has scored on 26.0% of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
• Minnesota has turned 27.5% of their first down plays into a new first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
• The Vikings are second in the NFL in the rate of runs to gain five or more yards (44.7%).
• Washington is allowing a 29.9% success rate to opposing running backs, the lowest rate in the league.
• 30.4% of the red zone plays run against Minnesota have resulted in a touchdown, the highest rate in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (TRUST): Cousins has been a unique player this season, turning in one of his lower-end statistical seasons but still churning out QB1 scoring weeks for fantasy.

Cousins is averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 9.9 yards per completion, which would be career lows for him as a starter. He has a 4.2% touchdown rate, which is his lowest rate since 2016. 

Even with all of that, Cousins has been a QB1 in fantasy in three consecutive games and in 5-of-7 games this season. 

Cousins has run into some optimal matchups to open the year and that doesn’t change here. Washington is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt (25th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (30th) to opposing passers, surrendering 0.510 passing points per attempt (30th) for fantasy.

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke has turned in QB14 (14.4 points) and QB8 (22.1 points) scoring weeks in his two starts against the Packers and Colts. 

Heinicke is 15th in EPA per dropback (-0.07) over the past two weeks. He and Terry McLaurin have connected on big plays downfield the past two weeks that have swung games, but Heinicke has been far more reserved than assumed. His 6.3% deep target rate is 29th over the past two weeks while his average depth of target (5.6 yards) is 34th. 

The one area where he has really struggled is his split versus man and zone coverage. Against zone coverage the past two weeks, Heinicke is ahead of only Brett Rypien and Malik Willis in EPA per dropback. Against man coverage, he is 12th. Versus zone looks, Heinicke is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt against zone (26th) compared to 9.8 Y/A versus man (fifth).

Minnesota plays zone 83.0% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. 

That will keep Heinicke as a 2QB option, but overall Minnesota has not been overly daunting versus quarterback play if forced to chase in those formats. They are 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.424) while allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt (31st). Minnesota finally had some regression to the mean in touchdown rate allowed last week versus Kyler Murray, but still sits 12th in that department (3.6%) for the season.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook: Cook stayed hot this past week, turning 25 touches into 141 yards and a touchdown. Cook has now found the end zone in three straight games and in four of his past five games played. Over the past three weeks, Cook has rushed for over 5.0 yards per carry in each game. He also has handled 87.5% and 83.3% of the backfield touches the past two weeks, his two highest rates on the season. 

All of that said, the most important thing that happened last week was that Cook caught 5-of-6 targets out of the backfield after having just five receptions over the previous four games. 

We want those targets to be sticky here for Cook as an RB1 because Washington has played the run well, allowing 11.9 rushing points per game to backfields (ninth), but they are allowing 10.5 receiving points per game to backs (23rd). 

Brian Robinson: Robinson rushed eight times for 20 yards Sunday. While not catching a pass, the fragility of his floor was exposed. 

Robinson has been one of the better stories this season in terms of cheering for a comeback, but production has been tough to come by for Robinson on the ground. Since returning to the field, Robinson is 43rd in rushing success rate (29.6%) and 45th in rate of explosive carries (3.7%) among 46 backs with 50 or more carries. 

Since he has just two receptions on the season, Robinson’s archetype for fantasy depends on him being efficient with his carries or finding the end zone. When neither happen, the bottom falls out like a week ago. That leaves him only as a touchdown-dependent FLEX since we have not seen any efficiency from this run game, even prior to Robinson getting work. 

Minnesota is allowing just 3.83 YPC to backs (third) so we cannot count on that efficiency here.

Antonio Gibson: Gibson has found a bit of pulse here transitioning to a change of pace role. Since Robinson returned to action, Gibson has reeled off three straight top-24 scoring weeks. 

Now, he has a receiving touchdown in each of the past two games anchoring his production for fantasy while his route participation has not grown extremely high. Over the past three weeks, Gibson has route rates of 28.0%, 34.3%, and 33.3% of the dropbacks. This is extremely fragile despite recent results and targets finding him. 

We need Gibson to either continue to raise his route participation or start pulling more work away from the ineffective Robinson on the ground. The Vikings are 18th in receiving points allowed per game to backs (9.4) if Gibson does see the targets, putting him in play as a volatile RB3/FLEX.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson (TRUST): Jefferson caught 6-of-8 targets for 98 yards Sunday, giving him 506 yards receiving over his past four games with those 98 yards being the fewest in an individual game over that span. 

Jefferson saw another 25.8% of the targets, giving him 25% or more in every game but one this season.

This week, Jefferson draws a Washington defense allowing 18.0 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1 options (27th). 

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin came up big again this past week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 113 yards, He had grabs of 42 and 33 yards, the latter of which set up the game-winning touchdown. 

McLaurin has been at his best this season against man coverage. On 78 routes run against man coverage, McLaurin is averaging 2.56 yards per route run, 26.1% of the team targets, and has been targeted on 23.1% of his routes. On 229 routes against zone looks, McLaurin is averaging 1.54 yards per route run, 16.7% of the team targets, and has been targeted on 15.3% of his routes. 

As noted, only one team plays more zone coverage than Minnesota, which makes McLaurin a boom-or-bust option on the WR2/WR3 line. 

Adam Thielen: Thielen caught 6-of-7 targets for 67 yards this past week against Arizona. He picked up a knee injury that he was able to return from, but it is something to keep an eye on throughout the week. 

Thielen has been a WR3 or better in four of his past five games, but he has added viability in full-PPR formats since he has yet to hit 70 yards receiving in a game this season. 

Curtis Samuel: Samuel caught 3-of-4 targets for 50 yards Sunday, adding 29 yards on four carries rushing. Those opening two weeks for Samuel feel like another season, but we have long been highlighting how his ceiling was tied to finding the end zone given his actual role in the offense. 

The good news here for Samuel as a WR3/FLEX in PPR and WR4/FLEX in non-PPR formats is that he leads the team with 20.5% of the targets against zone coverage with a 20.7% target rate per route. 

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson: Joining the Vikings is likely a neutral move for his fantasy stock but has the potential to help his weekly floor.

The Vikings are throwing more than the Lions were and specifically targeting the shallow area of the field. With no clear WR3 and lack of usage of the running backs in the passing game, Hockenson should at worst be the third option in the passing game once acclimated to the offense. 

That said, it is still hard to buy Hockenson vaulting out of that mid-tier TE1 group and start competing weekly with the elite tier of tight ends, which is why I suggest not much changes overall from a top-down fantasy dynamic.

Hockenson had five or fewer targets in four of the past five games with the Lions, so any target increase can aid his floor in that mid-TE1 tier. Hockenson is going to draw more targets than Irv Smith and Johnny Mundt, so the fact that Cousins has targeted tight ends 20.5% of the time (21st) isn’t overly concerning, but we have struggled to find consistent targets for anyone in this offense beyond Justin Jefferson. Adam Theilen is averaging 7.1 targets per game while Smith was third on the team with 33 targets. K.J. Osborn has played a ton of snaps and drew just 31 targets. That said, even if Hockenson doesn’t overly improve his target count, he will still be getting targets from a better quarterback. 

We should not anticipate Hockenson to hit the ground running in his first week with the team based on what we have seen the past weeks from Robbie Anderson, Christian McCaffrey, and James Robinson. 

Hockenson will surely dress and have a package for him Sunday but moves into touchdown or bust territory just for this week joining the team five days before the game. 

Washington is also allowing 5.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends, fourth in the league.

Washington TEs: Logan Thomas returned to the field this week, playing 34 snaps (55.7%) while Armani Rogers played 22 and John Bates 20. The trio combined for two catches and 19 yards. 

Washington tight ends have combined for one TE1 scoring week this season with a game-high of 45 yards in a week this season. Both of those belong to Thomas if you have to chase him as a TE2.

Minnesota has been a solid target for tight end production, allowing 8.8 yards per target (28th) and a 9.9% touchdown rate (27th) to the position.

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

PHI at HOU | BUF at NYJ | CAR at CIN | IND at NE | GB at DET | MIA at CHI | MIN at WAS | LVR at JAX | LAC at ATL | SEA at ARI | LAR at TB | TEN at KC | BAL at NO