Week 2 DFS: Rankings vs Value

If you missed this post in Week 1, the goal here is very simple. We’re taking the entire industry ranks from Fantasy Pros from the scoring systems that apply to each of the major daily sites (FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo) and using those ranks against DFS pricing to find the best values in pricing and on which sites those players have the most monetary influence in lineups. We also can use the industry ranks as a gauge on where we can leverage, which is where our personal ranks here at Sharp Football in the rankings hub come into play. 

Pick out your own values. I don’t have enough space to talk about every player here, so make sure you check out the Week 2 Worksheet to see my full thoughts on the players.  These won’t be the only players that make your DFS pool and I’ll also be mixing in the players that I have ranked as fantasy starters that the industry doesn’t.

QB1 Plays

The pros and I have Patrick Mahomes ($9,000/$7,500/$41) as the QB1 overall this week. With the values we’ll discuss here, it’s not hard to get the necessary funds to pay up for Mahomes on the road at Oakland. Mahomes threw 31 touchdowns passes on the road last season as opposed to 19 at home and once again scorched on the road last week when he threw for 378 yards and three scores against the Jaguars.

Once again, if you want to play Lamar Jackson ($8,200/$6,700/$31), the place to do it is on Yahoo. Last week, Jackson was just the fourth ever game with 300+ passing yards and 5 TD passes on 20 or fewer pass attempts. It was the first since Steve Grogan in 1979. Sure, it was against the Dolphins, but we want our players to crush soft matchups. Jackson hasn’t even used his legs yet and now he’s at home against a defense that just allowed a QB4 scoring week to Matthew Stafford.

I’m much higher than the industry on the quarterbacks involved in the Saints versus Rams game this week. Hopefully, that is an indication that we’ll be able to get leverage on the field in ownership on both Jared Goff ($7,600/$5,900/$35) and Drew Brees ($8,000/$6,200/$33) in a game with a 52-point game total. 

One player I have in my top-12 week that isn’t in the industry ranks is Derek Carr ($6,600/$5,100/$26). That game has the highest game total of the week at 53.5 points. Carr has been the QB4 and the QB2 in overall weekly scoring in his past two home games versus the Chiefs, throwing for 417 and 285 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in each of those games. Considering how popular the other Oakland players are going to be — we’re getting there — Carr’s ownership is going to be far lower.

RB1 Plays

The top-four backs here are universal in ranks regardless of scoring system and pricing. Pour one out for Christian McCaffrey and those who played him on Thursday-Sunday slates.

The first player who sticks out as underpriced compared to the ranks is Nick Chubb ($7,300/$6,200/$26) but you have to play on slates that include the Monday Night Football game to get him into the fold. Chubb had 20 touches (three receptions) in a game the Browns lost by 30 points while getting vultured on the goal line by Dontrell Hilliard. Hilliard suffered a concussion in the game and is in jeopardy of missing Monday night, leaving Chubb to once again shoulder a heavy workload.

I’m lower than the field on going back to Chris Carson ($7,400/$6,400/$21) this week, but he’s underpriced compared to industry rankings on all three sites. This is a spot to have some concern as a road dog, but if Carson’s newfound receiving work is sticky, then his weekly floor becomes much higher. He ran 17 pass routes Week 1 after averaging 9.8 per game in 2018 and was targeted on 41.2 percent of his pass routes, the highest rate for any back in Week 1.

RB2 Plays

I am much higher than the field on Derrick Henry ($7,500/$6,000/$28) and have him as an RB1 in all formats this week. Over his past five games played, dating back to last season, Henry has 159, 106, 92, 170, and 238 yards from scrimmage. He also has 10 total touchdowns over his past six games played with at least one rushing touchdown in five of his past six games played. 

Mark Ingram still has a lot of value on both Yahoo ($23) and DraftKings ($6,000). Ingram led the Ravens’ backfield with 107 yards and two touchdowns and is a 13.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals in Week 2.

Because pricing comes out on Sunday night, Josh Jacobs ($6,500/$4,700/$21) was priced in prior to his Monday night debut when he had 24 touches for 113 total yards and two touchdowns. Only two backs had more touches than Jacobs in Week 1. The Raiders led wire-to-wire and set the game up ride Jacobs on Monday, but he’s objectively priced far too low in a game that has the highest game total on the slate.

Matt Breida ($5,600/$5,200/$18) gets a boost from the mid-week news that Tevin Coleman will miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury. Breida has reached 15 touches in a game just four times through two seasons, but when he has, he’s averaged 102.5 yards from scrimmage and 16.0 fantasy points per game.

Gio Bernard ($5,700/$5,300/$14) would be higher than Breida this week should Joe Mixon be inactive due to his own foot injury. As the home favorite in that same game, In the four games that Mixon has missed over the past two seasons, Bernard has averaged 17.5 touches for 88.8 yards from scrimmage, 19.4 fantasy points per game and has been a top-20 scoring back in all four games.

WR1 Plays

Julio Jones is the consensus ranking WR1 this week, but you can still get some value on him on both FanDuel ($8,300) and DraftKings ($7,300) if you’re are playing slates that have him. Jones has lines of 10-169-0, 9-101-0 and 10-135-0 his past three games versus the Eagles and Jones himself has a receiving touchdown in five consecutive games dating back to last season.

Keenan Allen is the last man standing in the Chargers passing game now that Hunter Henry is out indefinitely and Mike Williams is looking doubtful for Sunday. Allen’s best pricing comes on Yahoo ($24) and FanDuel ($7,700). 

Sammy Watkins ($7,400/$7,200/$27) received a price hike after a monster Week 1 in which he caught nine passes for 198 yards and three touchdowns. He also gets a spike due to being elevated as the Chiefs’ WR1 now that Tyreek Hill is on the shelf. Watkins had 32.5% of the team targets in Week 1 and the Raiders allowed both Courtland Sutton (7-120) and Emmanuel Sanders (5-86-1) to have strong games in Week 1.

WR2 Plays

The industry likes Robert Woods ($7,300/$6,400/$23) as the best Rams wideout this week, while I have Woods a little behind both Brandin Cooks ($7,000/$6,300/$21) and Cooper Kupp ($6,800/$6,000/$22).  We do all agree, however, that Cooks is universally underpriced on three sites. Cooks posted lines of 7-107-0 and 6-114-1 in the two meetings between these teams a year ago. The Saints allowed a 14-216-3 line to Houston wideouts in Week 1, so all of the Rams are strong options to mix into your exposure.

Yahoo is extremely under the field on Julian Edelman ($19) this week compared to the ranks and other sites. A week ago, the Dolphins allowed six touchdown passes to the Ravens and four of those went to their wide receivers. We still have no idea how much Antonio Brown plays or how he fits into this New England offense, but Edelman is still a safe fantasy commodity.

WR3 Plays

As was the case with Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams ($5,900/$4,400/$19) was priced in prior to his 6-105-1 performance on Monday. Williams had 26.9% of the team targets in Week 1. The Chiefs surrendered 15 receptions for 273 yards and three touchdowns to Jacksonville wideouts in Week 1 and repeatedly struggled to defend the deep ball.

If you like Josh Gordon in your Patriots’ stacks, you’re not going to play him on Yahoo ($26) and squeeze value, but you can on both FanDuel ($6,300) and DraftKings ($5,800). Gordon had just four targets in Week 1, but turned them into three catches for 73 yards and a score.

On the other end of the spectrum, nobody knows what to expect from Antonio Brown ($7,800/$7,000/$27) and if you want to find out, you’re going to have to pay up for it. 

Larry Fitzgerald ($5,500/$4,600/$17) reminded everyone that he’s not quite dead yet with an 8-113-1 line on 13 targets in Week 1. We also got to see Fitz used more downfield. Fitzgerald's average depth of target in Week 1 was a team-leading 12.0 yards. The matchup isn’t as strong, but we can count on Arizona throwing the football a ton and Fitzgerald a price play on projected volume. 

TE1 Plays

Travis Kelce ($8,000/$7,300/$30) is a clean sweep at TE1 in everything. While you can’t beat the system with him, that doesn’t mean that he isn’t worth it. Kelce put up a 12-168-2 line in Oakland a year ago.

Evan Engram ($6,400/$5,200/$21) is also flat as a value play, but still an objectively good one. He has at least five receptions in four straight games dating back to last season, the longest such streak for a tight end in the league. It might be hard for him to match the 14 targets he had a week ago, but with Sterling Shepard ruled out, the Giants could be down to just jamming their passing game through Engram once again.

Darren Waller ($5,400/$3,300/$13) completes the Oakland sweep in this post (what could go wrong?).  The preseason hype matched his usage as Waller played 100 percent of the Oakland snaps and accrued 30.8 percent of the team target share. He didn’t waste the targets, either, catching 7-of-8 looks for 70 yards.

DST1 Plays

Of the top defenses, everyone will be targeting the Patriots and you’ll have to pay a top-three price to do so. The Bears are ranked as a top-three defense, but check-in as DST7 on FanDuel ($4,500).

The Texans are ranked highly and priced highly everywhere except for DraftKings ($2,800) at home in Gardner Minshew’s first career NFL start. 

One defense not listed here that I have ranked as a top-12 play on the site is the Bengals ($3,900/$2,600/$13), who posted the highest sack rate in Week 1 and get a 49ers team at home that is playing their second consecutive Eastern Time zone game in a row to start the season.