Guest Post – Under Pressure: Four Quarterbacks Bound to Outperform or Underperform Their 2016 Season

Defensive pressure affects every quarterback differently. Players like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson hardly break a sweat, while Ryan Tannehill becomes an entirely different player. Scott Barrett of PFF produced a chart that looked at every quarterback and their passer rating when under pressure compared to when they have a clean pocket in 2016. Combining this with Warren Sharp’s projected strength of schedule tool led to finding four quarterbacks who should perform better or worse than they did in 2016.

Cam Newton had a tough 2016. After being crowned the MVP in 2015, the expectations had never been higher for the former first overall pick. He was getting his top receiver in Kelvin Benjamin back from injury and had just led the Panthers to the Super Bowl.  Unfortunately as most of us know, he went on to have a career worst in completion percentage, passing touchdown percentage, yards per pass attempt, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. Beyond assuming a natural regression to his career average, Cam Newton should rebound closer to his MVP season than most think.

Throughout his career Cam Newton has been significantly worse when under pressure and that continued last year as he was the 5^th most pressure affected quarterback in the NFL. He was under pressure a whopping 38% of the time in 2016 posting a 90.9 passer rating with a clean pocket but only a 44.4 passer rating when under pressure. However in 2017, I expect him to have a cleaner pocket much more often. Using Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule tools you can see that the Panthers opposing schedule should make Cam Newton very excited.

Their schedule gets easier in terms of opposing pass rushes (17^th to 24^th hardest) which is big for Cam because he should be under pressure less often. It also gets easier in pass defense efficiency (6^th hardest to 30^th hardest), and yards per pass allowed (21^st hardest to 32^nd).

Looking at a mixture of all these factors including explosive pass defense that Warren Sharp calls “Pass Blend”, you can see not only is Carolina’s schedule the easiest, but the easiest by a wide margin:

Essentially, Cam Newton should have more time to throw, have an easier time completing passes, and throw deep more often. This is also assuming the run game remains stagnant. The Panthers just drafted Christian McCaffrey 8^th overall and should get him heavily involved in their game plan. McCaffrey should be a huge asset to Cam because he is a great pass-catcher and is bound to improve the Panthers running back rushing success rate which was 27^th in the league last year. Beyond helping the running game, the threat of screens to McCaffrey and delayed routes out of the backfield should keep opposing linebackers from blitzing as often. The Panthers also added Curtis Samuel in the 2nd round, a slot wide receiver that will help take pressure off Cam giving him a second explosive option underneath.

Another quarterback who should rebound from a poor 2016 is Blake Bortles. Bortles is affected heavily by pressure; he had a passer rating of 90 with a clean pocket, and a 40.97 passer rating under pressure.  Similarly to Cam, his schedule of opposing pass defenses also gets significantly easier in 2017. Bortles saw pressure 33% of the time in 2016 but goes from facing the 7^th toughest pass rushes last year to the 21^st this next year. This significant drop in strength of schedule should help him see pressure less often.

Beside pressure Bortles schedule gets easier in terms of; pass efficiency defense (17^th to 24^th hardest), Yards per pass attempt (16^th-17^th), and explosive pass defense (8^th-19^th). This combination gives him the 13^th easiest pass defense blend in 2017.

Looking at the roster, Bortles still has a very talented receiving corps with Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee that could support his ascension. The Jaguars addressed some of their biggest needs in the draft this year as well. They drafted Leonard Fournette with the 4^th overall pick which should help their 28^th ranked RB rushing success rate from 2016. In the second round they drafted Cam Robinson who some made the case for as the top offensive tackle in the draft. Robinson should be able to slide into left tackle and be an improvement over Branden Albert who received a PFF grade of 42.2 last season. The Jaguars are going to try and make Bortles into more of a game manager with a run-heavy, ball-control scheme, and for Bortles that should help his efficiency immensely. While I don’t expect Bortles to become a top 5 quarterback anytime soon, an emergence into the top 15 wouldn’t surprise me.

Shifting our attention to two quarterbacks who may struggle in 2017, Andy Dalton leads the way. Dalton had a passer rating of 102.5 with a clean pocket, and a 57.1 passer rating when under pressure. He was only under pressure 29% of the time last year, but I expect this to change for a lot of reasons.

For starters, the Bengals lost two elite offensive linemen. Andrew Whitworth, their starting LT, was graded as the 26^th best player in the league by PFF. You read that right, PLAYER, not just offensive lineman. They also lost Kevin Zietler, PFF’s 7^th best guard in the NFL.

To make matters worse, the Bengals have the biggest increase in the NFL in difficulty of pass rushes they will face from 2016 to 2017 (24^th to 5^th hardest). To wrap up the terror that could be 2017, the Bengals also play against the 8^th hardest blend of pass defenses.
Trying to find a bright spot, opposing pass defense efficiency gets easier, from 8^th hardest to 19^th. Unfortunately for Dalton and the Bengals offense this hasn’t mattered as Dalton’s splits in games against pass defenses in the bottom half of the league are relatively small. In fact, in his career he has actually thrown for more yards against teams with better pass defenses.

The Bengals drafted John Ross 9^th overall which would be a great asset if Dalton had time to throw deep, but with the losses on the line and tougher strength of schedule it may not happen as often as he’d like. They continued attempting to add playmakers in Joe Mixon and Josh Reynolds in the 2nd and 4th rounds but somehow didn’t address the offensive line at all. Dalton still has A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert which should help, but without time to throw Andy Dalton has shown that he will struggle.
Philly was ready to crown Carson Wentz their savior after the first three weeks of the season as the Eagles dominated the Browns, Bears, and Steelers.  A media member even claimed, “(Wentz) is Peyton Manning pre-snap, he’s Aaron Rodgers post-snap.” After finishing the season 4-9 those kinds of comparisons aren’t being thrown around anymore. Part of the reason is because Wentz was awful under pressure, posting the second biggest difference between pressure and no pressure QBR in the league. He was pressured on 30% of his pass attempts last year posting a woeful passer rating of 32.8. Comparing this to when he had a clean pocket he had a respectable passer rating of 94.4.

This is bad news for the “Wentz Wagon” as he plays the 7^th hardest schedule of opposing pass-rushers, 3 spots harder than last year. But beyond being under pressure more next year, Wentz has a huge jump in the strength of opposing pass defenses. In 2016 he played against the 20^th hardest opposing pass defenses, in 2017 he has to face the 6^th hardest. Contrary to Andy Dalton, the toughness of opposing secondary’s greatly mattered to Wentz last season.

The key to me in these splits is the touchdown and interception categories. Against teams ranked in the top 13 in pass defense he averaged 1.5 Interceptions and only half a touchdown per game. Compare this to every other team where he averaged 1.3 touchdowns per game and only half an interception.

Unfortunately for Wentz he has to play half of his games in 2017 against secondary’s ranked in the top 13. The first six weeks he has to play five teams in the top 3^rd of the league in defensive pass efficiency. It could be a slow start for Wentz and the Eagles in 2017 and if their passing offense loses confidence they may not be able to rebound. A key addition of Alshon Jeffery should help Wentz giving him a true #1, but one Wide Receiver may struggle to carry a pass offense.

SUMMARY

In summary, I expect Cam Newton to have a bounce-back year. He’s proven that he’s a great quarterback before, especially without pressure and against bad defenses. Blake Bortles is looked at as a bust currently but the perception should change this year. With the Jaguars coaching change, team mentality, addressing their needs through the draft, and playing a much easier schedule, Bortles should play better. People will be raving about Andy Dalton’s weapons all offseason and forget the Bengals lost their two star offensive lineman. Yet Dalton isn’t a good quarterback under pressure, something he is bound to see more of. Carson Wentz isn’t Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers at any point during a play and that will be definitive this year. Eagles fans may be jumping out of the “Wentz Wagon” after the first six weeks of the season.

About the author:  Connor Allen was crowned co-winner of the Sharp Football Stats 2017 Writing Contest.  He will share articles featuring his analysis throughout the 2017 NFL season.