The AFC South is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.
Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.
AFC South Prediction: 2026 Winner
The Texans (+160) are predicted to win the AFC South for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 38.5%.
» Bet the Texans to win the AFC South
2026 AFC South Division Winner Odds
| Team | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|
| Texans | +160 | +160 |
| Jaguars | +180 | +175 |
| Colts | +350 | +350 |
| Titans | +750 | +800 |
AFC South Best Bet for 2026
Best Favorite Bet to win the AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (+180)
Jacksonville won the division last year but is being priced as the #2 team this year. I don’t know how much better C.J. Stroud and the Texans can get, but I believe the Jaguars can get a lot better in Year 2 with Liam Coen. Trevor Lawrence came on massively towards the end of the season. From Week 11 on, Lawrence ranked top five in both EPA and success rate, throwing 19 touchdowns (#2) with the #1 TD rate in the entire NFL while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. Jacksonville can clean things up even more in 2026 after ranking #28 in net penalty EPA in 2025.
» Bet the Jaguars to win the AFC South
Best Sleeper Bet to win the AFC South: Tennessee Titans (+750)
Lined as a massive sleeper for a reason, the Titans have a few things going for them. Tennessee will play a fourth-place schedule, and they will do so with an entirely new coaching staff. One of the worst defenses in the NFL will be coached by one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL, Robert Saleh. Cam Ward will be coached by a play caller who helped develop Josh Allen at an early age, Brian Daboll. This was a team that went 0-10 against playoff teams last year and 2-5 in one-score games. Tennessee recorded only 6 opponent interceptions (#29) while recording 130 penalties (#31). They also were #30 in EPA on third downs in field goal range and ranked #28 in red zone TD rate allowed. These are variables that could swing massively from one year to the next.
» Bet the Titans to win the AFC South
Historical AFC South Trends
- The Texans have won the AFC South in 8 of the last 15 seasons
- The Colts have the longest AFC South drought, last winning the division in 2014
- The Jaguars have only won the division three times, but those three wins have all come since the 2017 season