This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into a showdown between two programs looking to bounce back from disappointing years to varying degrees, as Alabama pays a visit to Florida State.
Alabama vs Florida State, current line:
Alabama at Florida State Best Bet Prediction:
Florida State is trying to overhaul an absolute mess, but that probably can’t be accomplished in one offseason 一 lay the points and take Alabama against the spread.
- Alabama vs Florida State, current line: Alabama -13.5
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When Alabama is on Offense
Despite the electrifying athletic talent of quarterback Jalen Milroe, Alabama’s offense sputtered last year.
Perhaps it was Milroe’s inability to develop as a pocket passer, or maybe it was Kalen DeBoer missing his longtime offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Either way, both issues appear to have been fixed as Milroe took his talents to the NFL, while Grubb left the NFL to rejoin DeBoer in Tuscaloosa.
Based on route-adjusted data, Milroe’s on-target rate was 2.2% above expected last season, ranked 31st out of 70 power-conference quarterbacks per Sports Info Solutions.
However, when throwing to explosive routes (routes which produced an average of 20 or more yards per reception), Milroe dropped to 5.0% below expected, ranked 53rd.
Due to those struggles as a downfield passer, Milroe wasn’t an ideal fit for DeBoer’s offense.
Take a look at the average throws per game at 15 or more yards downfield for DeBoer’s offense in 2023 with Michael Penix Jr. at Washington compared to Alabama’s 2024 numbers:
- 2023: 9.4 attempts per game, ranked fourth
- 2024: 5.9 attempts per game, ranked 87th
Ty Simpson takes over for Milroe after serving as a backup at Alabama for the last three seasons.
Simpson should benefit from the return of receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, but Williams must improve upon his wildly inconsistent freshman year.
You undoubtedly saw Williams’ many highlight-reel catches, but unless you were diligently watching Alabama all year, you may have missed all the drops.
Williams finished the year with a 14.3% drop rate, the ninth-highest rate out of 177 qualified power-conference receivers, per Sports Info Solutions.
Taking that analysis a step further, Williams’ route-adjusted data was 13.2% below expected, the fourth-worst rate.
Fortunately for Simpson, he has Bernard back for another year after posting a catch rate 10.3% above expected, ranked 18th.
For DeBoer’s offense to get back to what it was in 2023 at Washington, however, Williams likely needs to elevate his game and live up to the hype on a more consistent basis.
If Florida State’s defense can gain an edge somewhere, it will likely be with its pass rush, which would have held an advantage last season based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 76th in pressure rate allowed
- Florida State: ranked eighth in pressure rate generated
Alabama’s offensive line might be vulnerable, but it remains to be seen if FSU can replicate last year’s pass rush success after losing its top three rushers.
Florida State was particularly hit hard on the edge, where the Seminoles do not return a single player who lined up outside for more than 25 snaps last season.
The Noles did make a critical portal addition in the form of Nebraska transfer James Williams, who generated a strong 19.6% pressure rate last year, but that’s just one notable addition.
Leading pass rushers Joshua Farmer (NFL), Patrick Payton (LSU), and Marvin Jones Jr. (Oklahoma) are all out the door.
In the run game, Alabama suffered a setback recently due to an injury to starting running back Jam Miller.
The Tide are also replacing backup Justice Haynes, who transferred to Michigan.
Alabama likely uses a committee approach to the backfield in this contest, with Richard Young, Daniel Hill, and Dre Washington sharing the load.
Young and Hill were both reserves at Alabama last year 一 neither had more than 27 carries 一 while Washington is more experienced, having over 1,000 career rushing yards during his time at Louisiana.
The run game could be an area where Grubb’s game plan makes a difference.
Alabama running backs faced a stacked box 62% of the time last year, the 20th-highest rate outside of the triple-option teams.
In 2023 at Washington, however, Grubb's and DeBoer’s running backs only saw a stacked box at a 46% rate.
If Grubb leans on more spread formations, it should open things up in the run game, making it easier for Alabama to overcome mediocre talent in the backfield.
As for Florida State, the Seminoles have tasked new coordinator Tony White (former coordinator at West Virginia) with overhauling a defense that could not defend the run a season ago.
Check out FSU’s opponent-adjusted numbers against the run last year:
- Ranked 97th in yards before contact allowed
- Ranked 90th in yards after contact allowed
This likely won’t be a quick fix for White, especially with limited support coming from the portal.
The Noles will likely start four transfers on defense, only three of whom have prior starting experience.
So this unit will still primarily be members of last year’s 87th-ranked scoring defense.
When Florida State is on Offense
When Florida State’s offense takes the field, there will likely be 11 new starters and possibly as many as nine players who weren’t even on the roster a season ago.
Technically, one starter does return (tight end Landen Thomas), though he is expected to play a backup role this season.
Tommy Castellanos will be taking over at quarterback after transferring in from Boston College, where he was benched last year in favor of Grayson James, who didn’t even hang on to the job this season for the Eagles.
After getting benched, Castellanos controversially left the program immediately and eventually landed with the Seminoles.
Castellanos’ benching was justified. He struggled as a downfield passer and took too many sacks.
However, Castellanos did have one strong game last year, and it came against Florida State.
Check out his stats from Boston College’s win over the Seminoles last September:
- 10-16, 106 yards
- 2 touchdowns
- 77 yards on 11 carries, excluding sacks.
- 84.7 Total QBR (via ESPN)
The previous season, Castellanos posted a 90.1 QBR against Florida State in a game in which Boston College took the eventual ACC Champions to the wire in a 31-29 FSU victory.
Those two games against Florida State represent two of just three games during his Boston College career in which he topped 80 QBR against an FBS opponent (out of 18 starts).
So it’s hard not to wonder if Mike Norvell did his due diligence on this portal addition or if he was swayed by two outliers on Castellanos’ resume that just happened to come against his own defense.
The biggest concern in Castellanos’ game is his tendency to take sacks.
Castellanos took a sack on 29.6% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 133rd out of 138 qualified FBS quarterbacks, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Maybe Florida State can protect him with a better offensive line, but last year’s unit was an abject disaster.
Check out Castellanos’ offensive line at Boston College compared to the Seminoles’ based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Boston College: ranked 79th in pressure rate allowed
- Florida State: ranked 127th in pressure rate allowed
Five new starters means we can throw out last year’s data, but expecting five guys who have never played together to immediately jell is unrealistic.
Richie Leonard IV is the only projected starter to return (he started three games before an injury), and he’ll likely be joined by transfers from UCF, Ole Miss, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt.
Jacob Rizy, who started five games last year, also returns and has been competing for a starting job, but since he started the final five games of 2024 and Leonard started the first three, any combination FSU throws out there features five linemen who have never shared the field together.
The marriage of Castellanos and new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is also a questionable pairing.
Malzahn runs a fast-paced passing attack that relies heavily on timing.
Although Malzahn likes athletic quarterbacks, which Castellanos does bring to the table, his teams have struggled with quarterbacks who lack the decision-making skills to get rid of the ball on time.
Just last year, Malzahn benched KJ Jefferson at UCF in large part because he held the ball too long and took too many sacks (29.7% sack rate versus pressure).
Castellanos was one of the few quarterbacks worse than Jefferson on both fronts.
Even if FSU’s offensive line rebounds to a respectable level, it will likely have its hands full with an Alabama pass rush unit that ranked 19th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.
The Tide also returns four starters from the front seven, including leading pass rusher LT Overton.
If Florida State’s offense has an edge over Alabama, it’s more likely to be on the ground, where Malzahn’s offense should have an immediate effect.
Malzahn’s spread offense makes it challenging for defenses to stack the box and creates opening running lanes at a high rate.
Check out Malzahn’s offense at UCF last year compared to Florida State based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- UCF: ranked first in yards before contact
- Florida State: ranked 127th in yards before contact
The FSU backfield will rely on former Alabama ball carrier Roydell Williams, who was a backup for the Seminoles last year, and Gavin Sawchuk, a transfer from Oklahoma.
Alabama’s run defense was inconsistent last year, as it struggled to create early contact
The Tide ranked 64th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, which, coupled with Malzahn’s offense, likely means FSU will have room to run.
Alabama’s second level helped smooth that over by ranking 11th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed. However, the loss of linebacker Jihaad Campbell to the NFL will hurt.
Final Thoughts on Florida State vs. Alabama Best Bets
Florida State just has too many holes to fill on both sides of the ball, so bet on Alabama to cover the spread.
While there’s reason to believe Alabama will be improved, this is a bet against the decision to ride with Tommy Castellanos as much as anything.
A storied program like Florida State taking on a transfer quarterback who was benched at Boston College is one of the strangest moves we’ve seen in the short history of the transfer portal.