We tend to focus only on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.
Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.
Understanding how a game will be officiated can be immensely valuable in the betting market.
A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer affects game flow very differently than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.
One week, a referee's style may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference can compound that weakness the next week.
Same team. Different outcomes.
Throughout the 2026 NFL season, we'll help you identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to give you an edge when placing a bet.
NFL Referee Assignments for Week 7
| Week 7 | Referee |
|---|---|
| Patriots at Bears | Alan Eck |
| Saints vs. Steelers | Bill Vinovich |
| 49ers at Falcons | Clay Martin |
| Buccaneers at Panthers | Carl Cheffers |
| Bengals at Ravens | Shawn Smith |
| Colts at Vikings | Brad Rogers |
| Giants at Texans | Land Clark |
| Dolphins at Jets | Brad Allen |
| Browns at Titans | Scott Novak |
| Broncos at Cardinals | Craig Wrolstad |
| Packers at Lions | Alex Moore |
| Rams at Raiders | Ron Torbert |
| Chiefs at Seahawks | John Hussey |
| Cowboys at Eagles | Alex Kemp |
NFL Week 7 Referee Betting Impact
Alex Moore's Impact on Packers at Lions
Despite choppy starts for both teams early in 2026, the Packers and Lions can keep pace with the NFC North leaders with a victory in a high-stakes divisional showdown in Detroit on Sunday.
Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Alex Moore will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
- Alex Moore ended his first season as a head referee in 2025 ranked No. 1 in penalties per game. He currently ranks second in 2026.
- Moore ranks second in offensive holding penalties per game, averaging almost double the league average.
- Moore's crew ranks fourth in awarding automatic first downs via penalty, with defensive holding and roughing the passer being assessed at an above-average rate by this crew.
- Green Bay currently ranks as the No. 1 penalized road team in the NFL, with a big contributor to this statistic coming from elevated offensive holding penalties on the road.
- The Lions defense has been lackluster at generating offensive holding penalties on opponents this season compared to their numbers in recent years in this category.
- The Packers defense is a top-five unit in surrendering automatic first downs.
- The Lions offense ranks 20th as a beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty.
The Bottom Line:
- Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and ATS in Moore's debut season as a head referee in 2025. The 2026 season has seen a complete 180, with home teams currently 0-5 on the moneyline and ATS with Moore officiating.
The Lions come into the game off a bye, and their offense makes Detroit a team to be reckoned with.
However, they are still in search of answers defensively, and that unit will be put to the test by a Packers passing attack that is beginning to hit its stride.
The winner of this game likely boils down to which team has the ball last, or which defense can make a play late to seal a victory.
The bottom line is it will be close, and taking points holds a lot of appeal in a likely down-to-the-wire contest, making the underdog Green Bay Packers the selection on Sunday in Detroit.
John Hussey's Impact on Chiefs at Seahawks
The reeling Seahawks attempt to get their season back on track, with the Super Bowl champions looking for a statement win against an undefeated Chiefs squad to reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the NFL.
Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of John Hussey will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
- The Chiefs were the No. 1 penalized road team in 2025. They currently rank among the top-10 penalized road teams in 2026.
- The Seahawks rank among the top-10 penalized home teams.
- The Seahawks offense is being penalized at almost double the rate per game as Kansas City, and there are concerning numbers with this unit following the departure of Klint Kubiak in the offseason.
- Hussey's crew currently ranks as a top-five enforcer of false start penalties.
- The Chiefs rank as the least penalized team for false starts, but face a Seattle defense and home crowd that again rank among the league's best at generating pre-snap infractions on visiting teams at Lumen Field.
- The Seahawks ended 2025 as one of the least-penalized teams on third down, ranking 28th overall. Fast forward to 2026, they currently rank as a top-five penalized team on third down.
- Hussey's crew is averaging the third fewest penalties per game on third down in 2026.
- Hussey is awarding above-average automatic first downs, primarily via elevated defensive pass interference and illegal contact calls, ranking top three in both categories.
- The Chiefs offense is a bottom-five unit as a beneficiary of automatic first downs, a byproduct of a run-first approach in 2026.
The Bottom Line:
- Over the past decade, home teams are an NFL best 100-63-5 ATS (62%) ATS with Hussey.
- The Chiefs are 9-4 with Hussey in the Patrick Mahomes era. However, only four of those games were on the road, with Kansas City 1-3 in those contests.
- Favorites are 5-0 on the moneyline and 4-0-1 ATS with Hussey in 2026.
The Seahawks are at an inflection point and desperately need a win.
They also benefit from a mini bye in the lead-up to this game.
The matchup between the Seahawks' championship-caliber defense and their former Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker will make this must-see TV.
The question is: Can the Seattle offense limit the turnovers and elevated penalties we detailed in the game breakdown?
It may be a leap of faith, but we're banking on Seattle fixing those issues during their extended break.
That's enough to get them back in the win column and hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season, making the Seattle Seahawks the selection on Sunday Night Football.
2026 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends
A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2026 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.
Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 57-55 ATS in true home games with Hill officiating.
- Hill is 62-50-1 to the under in his career.
- In divisional games, Hill is 19-12-1 to the under in his career.
Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 33-16 on the money line and 28-21 ATS in Eck's head referee career.
- Eck was 11-6 to the over in the 2025 season.
Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 65-67-2 ATS in Kemp's career.
- Divisional home teams are 19-22 on the money line and 17-24 ATS in Kemp's career.
- Totals in Kemp's career divisional games sit at .500 with a 20-20-1 record.
Alex Moore: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams were 10-6 on the money line and 10-6 ATS with Moore in 2025, his first season as a head referee.
Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- True home teams are 57-73-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including a 7-10 ATS record in 2025.
- Vinovich is 73-59-3 to the under since 2018, although he went 11-6 over in 2025.
Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 83-59-1 on the money line with Allen since 2016.
- Home teams are 73-67-3 ATS in those Allen-officiated games since 2016.
- Allen is 83-60-1 to the under since 2016.
Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- True home teams are 53-54 on the money line and 54-53 ATS in Rogers' career.
- Rogers is 58-50 over the total in his career.
- Rogers is 22-20 over in career divisional games.
Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 101-64 on the money line since 2016 with Cheffers officiating.
- Home teams are 87-75-3 ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season.
- Divisional home teams are 33-22-1 ATS with Cheffers since 2016.
Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Martin is 64-61-3 under in his career.
- True home teams in Martin's career are 64-61 on the money line and 55-67-3 ATS.
- Divisional home teams are 21-27 on the money line & 17-31 ATS in Martin-officiated contests.
Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 77-84-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016.
- Divisional home teams are 31-28 on the money line since 2016 in Blakeman-officiated contests.
- Blakeman is 30-29 over the total in divisional games since 2016, including a 4-2 under mark in 2025.
Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 81-80 on the money line and 67-91-3 ATS since 2016 in Wrolstad-officiated games.
- Home underdogs are 26-45-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including 5-4 ATS in 2025.
John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 113-51 on the money line with Hussey since 2016.
- Home teams are 98-61-5 ATS with Hussey since 2016.
- Home teams were 11-6 on the money line and 9-8 ATS with Hussey in 2025.
Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 38-55-2 ATS in Clark's career.
- Clark is 50-45-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 10-6 over in 2025.
Ron Torbert: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Torbert-officiated games are 75-60-1 under the total since 2018.
- True home teams are 58-73-1 ATS in Torbert-officiated contests since 2018.
Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- Home teams are 44-64-3 ATS in Novak's career, the lowest ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019.
- Divisional home teams are 13-22-1 ATS in Novak's career.
Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- True home teams are 58-68-4 ATS in Hochuli's career, including a 7-10 ATS record in 2025.
- Hochuli is 74-55-2 under the total in his career.
- In divisional games, Hochuli is 31-16-1 under the total in his career.
Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting
- True home teams are 61-62-5 ATS in Smith's career.
- Smith officiated contests sit at .500 on totals, with a 65-65-1 record in his career, including a 9-8 under record in 2025.
