This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a classic SEC rivalry game between Alabama and Georgia.
Alabama vs. Georgia, current line:
Alabama at Georgia Best Bet Prediction:
Georgia showed some cracks in the armor while barely hanging on against Tennessee, so let’s play the road underdog and take Alabama against the spread.
- Alabama vs. Georgia, current line: Alabama +3
» Bet it now: Alabama +3 points
When Alabama is on Offense
Alabama runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach Kalen DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Grubb is in his first year with the Tide, but he also served as DeBoer’s coordinator at each of his previous coaching stops at Sioux Falls, Fresno State, and Washington.
Alabama’s offense was inconsistent last year with Nick Sheridan, DeBoer’s tight ends coach at Washington, serving as a first-time play caller.
Bringing Grubb to Tuscaloosa is supposed to solve that issue, though early returns were unimpressive in the opener against Florida State.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, check out Alabama’s pass rate over expected from the last two years:
- 2024: 1.1% above expected
- 2025: 10.6% above expected
The shift is, at least partially, due to a decreased emphasis on the quarterback run game now that Jalen Milroe is in the pros.
That said, Ty Simpson is a capable athlete and, excluding sacks, has picked up 74 yards on 13 carries while forcing eight broken or missed tackles, per Sports Info Solutions.
Simpson has the talent to lead a dangerous passing attack and flashed that potential in Week 3 when he carved up Wisconsin’s secondary.
However, Simpson needs his weapons to step up in this game.
Alabama would not have knocked off Georgia last season without star freshman Ryan Williams’ incredible catch and touchdown run late in the fourth quarter.
However, after that contest, Williams’ role in the Alabama offense started to shrink because of consistency issues.
Williams finished the 2024 season with a 14% drop rate, third worst in the SEC, and he’s back at it again this year, posting a 23% drop rate in 2025, ranked dead last in the conference.
Using more advanced metrics paints a similarly bleak picture of Williams’ performance.
According to route-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Williams’ catch rate was 13% below expected last year, ranked 206th out of 210 qualified SEC receivers.
Looking at Williams’ young career as a whole, that game against Georgia stands out as an outlier.
In the season opening loss to Florida State, Williams had two drops, and tight end Josh Cuevas added two of his own.
Simpson’s stat line of 254 yards with a 53.5% completion rate against the Seminoles looked relatively unimpressive, but those four drops were a significant contributing factor.
Expect Simpson to take plenty of shots downfield in this game, based on Grubb’s track record as a play caller and Georgia’s early-season struggles in the secondary.
When Grubb and DeBoer were last together at Washington, the Huskies averaged 9.4 throws per game at 15 or more yards downfield when outside the red zone, the fourth-highest rate per Sports Info Solutions.
Simpson was 4 for 11 on throws at that depth against FSU (Williams contributed to the lack of success with a drop).
Although Alabama should be concerned about its receiving corps, Georgia has looked vulnerable to the deep ball this season.
Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar was 5 for 7 on throws of 15 or more yards despite barely having the arm strength to get the ball downfield.
Georgia cornerback Daylen Everette is the only returning starter in the secondary, and it showed against the Vols.
This Georgia secondary has been anchored by star safeties like Malaki Starks, Tykee Smith, and Javon Bullard in recent years, and that high-end talent might not be there this season 一 or at least it's not experienced enough to show.
For Simpson to replicate Aguilar’s success, however, Alabama’s offensive line will need to prove it can stop the Georgia pass rush.
Alabama returned three starters on the offensive line this year, but the unit has been unimpressive in pass protection.
Simpson was pressured 39% of the time against Florida State, and left tackle Kadyn Proctor, despite being viewed as a potential future first-round pick, was part of the problem.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Proctor already has eight blown blocks, and his 7.1% blown block rate in pass protection ranks 16th out of 17 qualified SEC left tackles.
In the run game, Alabama’s offensive line has been more productive, though it’s unclear if Alabama has a ball carrier capable of leading the way.
Here’s how the run game battle stacks up based on data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 47th in yards before contact
- Georgia: ranked 59th in yards before contact allowed
- Alabama: ranked 92nd in yards after contact
- Georgia: ranked ninth in yards after contact allowed
In last year’s meeting, Alabama running backs generated a respectable 2.3 yards before contact against the Bulldogs, but averaged only 3.9 yards per attempt overall.
So the backfield situation was already unimpressive last year, and the Tide have since lost Justice Haynes (to Michigan) and have been without Jam Miller all year due to injury.
Miller is expected to return for this game, but he’s not likely to provide a significant boost.
When accounting for the direction of the run and the number of defenders in the box, Miller gained 1.7% fewer yards than expected last year, while Haynes gained 16% more than expected, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Even worse, at least in regards to this matchup, Miller gained 7.3% fewer yards after contact than expected (Haynes: 11.5% more).
Miller’s lack of physicality as a runner is a problem against a Georgia defense that has contacted defenders at or behind the line of scrimmage on 41% of attempts.
When Georgia is on Offense
Georgia is running a balanced offense this season under coordinator Mike Bobo, a change from last year’s pass-heavy scheme.
According to Campus2Canton, the Bulldogs have a pass rate 1.0% below expected, likely an indication of a lack of trust in quarterback Gunner Stockton relative to the more experienced Carson Beck in 2024.
Stockton played well in Georgia’s win over Tennessee, so perhaps confidence is growing, but even in the shootout, Stockton was not asked to take many shots downfield.
Against the Vols, Stockton was 3 for 6 on throws of 15 or more yards.
In 2024, Beck attempted at least 6 throws of 15 or more yards 10 times, including 23 such attempts last year against Alabama.
It’s safe to assume Georgia will follow a different game plan this year, especially with Alabama only allowing a 25% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards, the nation’s 12th-lowest rate per Sports Info Solutions.
If Alabama can get pressure on Stockton, the Tide might be able to shut down the passing attack altogether.
Take a look at some key stats on the battle in the trenches:
- Georgia: ranked 66th in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 41st in pressure rate generated
Both teams rank worse than one would expect for these programs, but Georgia should be more concerned about the direction of its offensive line.
Bulldogs right tackle Earnest Greene is doubtful for this game, and there does not appear to be a suitable replacement on the roster.
Michael Uini, who started at right guard in Week 2, stepped in after Greene was knocked out of the game against Tennessee and was in over his head.
Uini, a redshirt freshman, tallied six blown blocks on 13 snaps in pass protection.
Bo Hughley also saw some action at right tackle, but he was given just 12 snaps to Uini’s 46.
Georgia’s offensive line might be overmatched in the run game as well, based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia: ranked 60th in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 28th in yards before contact allowed
The Alabama run defense should be even stronger this week, as nose tackle Tim Keenan III is set to take the field for the first time this season.
In large part due to Keenan’s presence, Alabama allowed just 3.9 yards per attempt between the tackles last year, ranked 16th.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s running backs averaged just 4.1 yards per attempt between the tackles last year, which ranked 113th 一 and it’s even worse this year at 3.9 yards per attempt.
So we have reason to doubt Georgia’s ability to control this game on the ground, and some concerns about Stockton’s ability to throw on Alabama’s secondary.
It’s certainly possible Stockton continues to build off his performance against Tennessee, but if not, this looks like a tough matchup for the Bulldogs' offense.
Final Thoughts on Georgia vs. Alabama Best Bets
DeBoer tends to get his squad up for big games, so let’s take the points and play Alabama against the spread.
At Alabama and Washington, DeBoer is 13-2 against ranked opponents, including a 5-1 mark against top-10 teams.
Although he’s suffered some brutal losses against unranked foes, arguably no one has been better at getting his team focused for these marquee matchups in recent years.