This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out this year's Rose Bowl matchup between one of the bluest of blue bloods, Alabama, and traditional doormat, Indiana.
Alabama vs. Indiana, current line:
Alabama vs. Indiana Best Bet Prediction:
It still sounds weird to say, but the Hoosiers are the more physical, well-rounded team on both sides of the ball, so lay the points and take Indiana against the spread.
- Alabama vs. Indiana, best line: Indiana -6.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Indiana -6.5 points
When Alabama is on Offense
Alabama leans heavily on the passing game, partially because that’s the typical tendency of Kalen DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb, but also because the Tide simply have no running game.
Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions, there’s little chance of Alabama moving the ball on the ground in this matchup:
- Alabama: ranked 31st in yards before contact
- Indiana: ranked 3rd in yards before contact allowed
- Alabama: ranked 117th in yards after contact
- Indiana: ranked 17th in yards after contact allowed
Whether Alabama can move the ball through the air will depend on its ability to protect Ty Simpson.
Although Simpson is having a breakout season, Alabama’s passing game has struggled when the offensive line can’t keep the pocket clean.
Check out Simpson’s yards per attempt this season with and without pressure:
- Under pressure: 5.5, ranked 90th
- No pressure: 8.4, ranked 40th
Alabama’s pass protection has been one of the strengths of the team, but it might be at a disadvantage against the Hoosiers based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 29th in pressure rate allowed
- Indiana: ranked 10th in pressure rate generated
Indiana’s pass-rush unit won’t be at full strength, however, after losing Stephen Daley to an injury during the Big Ten Championship Game.
Although the Hoosiers still have leading pass rusher Mikail Kamara, the loss of Daley is a devastating blow because he had already been filling in for starter Kellan Wyatt, who was lost for the year in October.
Sophomore Daniel Ndukwe will likely take the majority of snaps in place of Daley, though he has seen limited playing time and didn’t get his first defensive reps until after Wyatt’s injury.
Ndukwe has been productive in his limited role, however, generating a 13% pressure rate (Daley’s was 11%).
Fortunately for Indiana, Simpson takes traditional dropbacks 59% of the time, which increases the odds of generating pressure.
Against traditional dropbacks, the Hoosiers are generating a 48% pressure rate, ranked 21st.
It’s also possible that Indiana increases its blitz rate in an effort to mask the loss of Daley.
Although the Hoosiers rank 108th in blitz rate this year, their many blowouts are a factor in that trend.
Indiana blitzed 28% of the time against Ohio State and 26% of the time against Oregon, indicating a willingness to use that strategy in big games.
An elevated blitz rate would not only help the depleted pass-rush unit, but it’s also a good strategy against Simpson in general.
Check out Simpson’s numbers against the blitz compared to standard pressure, via Sports Info Solutions:
Comp Pct (Rank) Yds/Att (Rank) Positive EPA Rate (Rank) No Blitz 68% (26th) 7.9 (39th) 50% (19th) Blitz 56% (105th) 7.1 (86th) 43% (80th)
When Simpson has time to throw, he’s likely to take some shots downfield against a boom-or-bust Indiana secondary.
Outside the red zone, 24% of Alabama throws are at least 15 yards downfield with a 46% completion rate (ranked 42nd).
If the Tide can protect Simpson long enough to get off those throws, he could have success against an Indiana secondary that ranks 84th in completion rate allowed at that depth (43%).
However, attacking Indiana downfield comes with risks.
The Hoosiers have 17 interceptions this season, and that number is certainly no fluke based on their ball-hawk rate numbers:
- Overall: 14%, ranked 30th
- On throws of 10 or more yards: 22%, ranked 18th
Simpson has been prone to putting the ball in harm’s way, as well.
Although he has just 5 interceptions on the year, opponents have generated an 18% ball-hawk rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 87th.
Another trend likely to impact this game is Alabama’s lack of success on early downs.
The Tide has faced third-down attempts on 51% of their sets of downs, ranked 105th.
That concerning trend explains their offensive struggles despite the explosive ability of the offense, and it’s likely to cause problems against the Hoosiers.
Indiana ranks seventh in third-down force rate, putting opponents in third-down situations 56% of the time.
The Hoosiers then allow third-down conversions just 28% of the time, ranked third, while Alabama has a mediocre 42% conversion rate, ranked 40th.
Alabama’s offense is certainly talented enough to make some plays, but if Indiana can turn this game into a shootout, it’s tough to envision the Tide keeping pace.
When Indiana is on Offense
Indiana runs a balanced offense and should have no issues running or throwing the ball against an inconsistent Alabama defense.
In the passing game, the Hoosiers should be able to give Fernando Mendoza plenty of time in the pocket based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:
- Indiana: ranked 21st in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 110th in pressure rate generated
Alabama has played five games against teams ranked in the top 50 of opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed (Oklahoma x2, Georgia x2, and LSU), and the Tide generated a pressure rate of 26% or worse in four of those contests.
When given time in the pocket, Mendoza has been nearly unstoppable, completing 77% of his passes at an FBS-leading 10.1 yards per attempt.
One of the reasons it has been hard to get pressure on Mendoza is the Hoosiers’ tendency to rely on quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs).
Indiana uses quick dropbacks on 47% of its pass plays, the nation’s 20th-highest rate.
Fortunately for Alabama, it has the athletes in the secondary to close quickly and limit yards after catch on those quick pass plays.
The Tide are allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt against quick dropbacks, ranked 26th.
Since Indiana so frequently attacks underneath, its standard game plan naturally minimizes one of Alabama’s greatest strengths on defense, the downfield passing game.
Outside the red zone, Alabama allows a 35% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield (ranked 26th), but Indiana only attempts those throws an average of 5 times per game (ranked 110th).
If Alabama has some success slowing down the passing attack, Indiana should be able to pivot to a more run-heavy approach based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Indiana: ranked 24th in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 104th in yards before contact allowed
- Indiana: ranked 34th in yards after contact
- Alabama: ranked 12th in yards after contact allowed
Indiana lines up in heavier formations at a relatively high rate, which allows defenses to stack the box, but this Alabama team is not as physical as many past versions under Nick Saban.
When lined up with a stacked box, Alabama allows 4.4 yards per attempt, ranked 71st.
Due to its ability to run the ball, Indiana excels at avoiding tough down-and-distance situations.
The Hoosiers have found themselves in third-and-long situations on just 13% of their sets of downs, the second-lowest rate.
To be fair, Alabama’s defense has forced third-and-longs at a high rate (21st), but if we’re expecting Indiana to win the battle in the trenches in pass protection and in the ground game, that greatly reduces the odds of Alabama creating the negative plays necessary to force those situations.
Final Thoughts on Indiana vs. Alabama Best Bets
Statistically, this game looks like a mismatch on many levels, so lay the points and take Indiana against the spread.
Indiana is one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, while Alabama has some glaring flaws that the Hoosiers should be able to expose.
This could be a close game if the Alabama defense steps up, but if Mendoza gets rolling in the passing game, expect an easy Indiana victory.