This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a fascinating SEC matchup as Oklahoma welcomes back its former quarterback with Auburn coming to town.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma, current line:
Auburn at Oklahoma Best Bet Prediction:
Take the home team with the better defense and play Oklahoma against the spread, but shop around and try to get a line under a touchdown.
- Auburn vs Oklahoma, current line: Oklahoma -7
» Bet it now: Oklahoma -7 points
When Auburn is on Offense
Auburn runs a balanced offense led by head coach and play-caller Hugh Freeze, which is mildly surprising given the offseason emphasis on improving the passing attack.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, the Tigers have thrown the ball at a rate 1.7% above expected this year, almost perfectly in line with last year's rate of 1.1%.
After suffering through two seasons of the wildly inconsistent Payton Thorne, Freeze went out and landed former five-star prospect Jackson Arnold, who flopped in his lone season as the starter at Oklahoma.
Thorne’s biggest problem was interceptions, which frequently cost Auburn in games in which it was otherwise competitive.
On passes that crossed the line of scrimmage, Thorne had a 4.2% interception rate, ranked 110th out of 138 qualified passers per Sports Info Solutions.
Arnold’s 1.9% rate (14th lowest) undoubtedly attracted Freeze to the former Sooner.
Another issue Auburn needed to fix was Thorne’s tendency to take too many sacks.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Thorne took a sack on 27% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 125th.
Unfortunately, Arnold is not an upgrade in this area. In fact, Auburn somehow downgraded.
Arnold took a sack on 30% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 134th, and there have been no signs of growth this season as he’s generated an identical 30% rate through three games with the Tigers.
This trend is concerning as Auburn prepares to face an Oklahoma defense that has generated a 51% pressure rate in its two games against FBS competition, the nation’s third-highest rate per Sports Info Solutions.
For Auburn to prevent Oklahoma’s pass rush from wreaking havoc, Arnold will need to get the ball out quickly and let his playmakers do damage after the catch.
The offense is already designed to have this approach 一 Arnold only takes a traditional dropback of three or more steps 38% of the time (FBS average 50%) 一 but now it will be critical that Arnold executes it as planned.
Despite the undefeated record, there are some concerning trends developing for Arnold in terms of his ability to run this offense efficiently.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Arnold has taken a zero or one-step drop 38% of the time (31st-highest rate in the FBS).
On those quick dropbacks, he’s averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt and somehow has managed a 9.4% sack rate, the sixth-worst rate and more than double the FBS average of 4.3%.
For this quick passing attack to work, Auburn also needs receivers who can produce after the catch.
And while there is plenty of talent on the depth chart at receiver, they might not be the right types to thrive in this scheme.
Auburn only ranks 111th in yards after catch per reception this season, and poor production in this area was predictable based on some data from last year.
Check out the 2024 route-adjusted yards after catch rate for Auburn’s top weapons, based on data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Cam Coleman: 16% fewer yards after catch than expected
- Eric Singleton (Georgia Tech transfer): 18% fewer
- Horatio Fields (Wake Forest transfer): 56% fewer
So for Auburn to have success in the passing game, it will likely need to rely on quality pass protection to let those weapons get downfield, which is what they do best.
Arnold is completing 58% of his passes at 10 or more yards downfield, and those three receivers have combined to catch 77% of their catchable targets at that depth.
It is worth noting, however, that Singleton is questionable for this game.
The run game is where Auburn is more likely to find an edge against Oklahoma, though the health of starting running back Damari Alston is a concern.
Alston has not played since the season opener against Baylor, but he is listed as probable on the injury report.
Based on last year’s opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solution, the edge in the run game would have gone to Oklahoma:
- Auburn: ranked 46th in yards before contact
- Oklahoma: ranked eighth in yards before contact allowed
However, Oklahoma is allowing 2.0 yards before contact per attempt to running backs this year, which ranks 72nd.
That surprising trend may simply be the result of having faced a strong rushing attack in Michigan early this year.
Michigan running backs averaged 3.3 yards before contact per attempt against Auburn, but the Sooners bounced back and allowed -0.4 yards before contact per carry against Temple last week.
When Oklahoma is on Offense
Oklahoma runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Ben Arbuckle, who joined the team this offseason from Washington State, bringing quarterback John Mateer with him.
According to Campus2Canton, Arbuckle’s offense has a pass rate 9.9% above expected based on situational data 一 a dramatic shift from the Sooners’ rate of 3.5% below expected in 2024.
In addition to being more pass-heavy this year, the Sooners are also more aggressive at attacking downfield in the passing game.
In 2024, only 14% of Oklahoma’s pass attempts outside the red zone were 14 or more yards downfield, the nation’s lowest rate per Sports Info Solutions.
This year, that rate has shifted to 25% against FBS opponents, ranked 52nd.
Mateer likely offers a substantial upgrade over Arnold for Oklahoma as a downfield passer.
His catchable pass rate on throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone (70%) ranked 39th out of 139 quarterbacks last year (Arnold ranked 137th).
And Mateer has already proven his value against top competition, completing 4 of 8 throws at that depth against Michigan in Week 2.
Auburn’s best chance to disrupt the Oklahoma passing attack is to get pressure on Mateer and disrupt the Sooners' momentum with some timely sacks.
In 2024, Mateer ranked 136th out of 138 quarterbacks in sack rate versus pressure, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Auburn might have a pass-rush unit capable of getting to Mateer.
The Tigers have generated a pressure rate of 40% or higher in two of three games including their win over Baylor in Week 1.
Additionally, Oklahoma's offensive line might be decimated by injuries.
The Sooners are already without center Troy Everett, who was injured in Week 1 and will not suit up for this game.
Backup center Jake Maikkula is now listed as questionable on the injury report, as are Michael Fasusi (who didn’t play last week) and right guard Febechi Nwaiwu.
If Fasusi can’t go, Oklahoma is down to its third-string left tackle as Jacob Sexton, who started the season opener in place of Fasusi, is out for the year.
Due to all the injuries, Oklahoma has already started nine different offensive linemen this season 一 and yet the Sooners rank 20th in pressure rate allowed.
Although the offensive line issues are a concern, there’s reason to believe Mateer can handle himself.
Check out Mateer’s numbers versus pressure against a strong Michigan defense in Week 2, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 36% pressure rate
- 6 for 11 (55% completion rate)
- 10.9 yards per attempt
- 2 sacks (15% sack rate versus pressure)
On the year, Mateer’s sack rate versus pressure is just 16%, a dramatic dropoff from his 31% rate in 2024 at Wazzu.
Partially due to offensive line injuries, Oklahoma has more questions in the run game and might not be able to move the ball on the ground in this matchup.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Oklahoma running backs have gained just 1.9 yards before contact per attempt against FBS opponents, ranked 72nd.
That’s problematic against an Auburn defense that ranks 14th by the same metric, allowing 0.8 yards before contact per attempt.
Another issue in the backfield is the health of Jaydn Ott, a prized portal addition from Cal.
The former star running back played through injuries last year and was atrocious at Berkeley.
When accounting for defenders in the box and the direction of the run, Ott gained 36% fewer yards than expected last season, easily the worst rate among qualified power conference running backs per Sports Info Solutions.
And you can’t blame the Cal offensive line or coaching staff 一 Ott’s teammate, Jaivian Thomas (now at UCLA), posted a rate 31% above expected.
Ott has played in every game and started against Michigan, but barely saw the field in Oklahoma’s other two contests.
On the year, Ott has 9 carries for 17 yards and does not look like he belongs on the field.
Jovantae Barnes has started in Ott’s place but is averaging just 2.5 yards per attempt, despite most of his carries coming against Illinois State and Temple.
Since it’s not the focal point of the offense, the lack of a run game shouldn’t hurt Oklahoma’s quest to put points on the board, but it could limit the Sooners' ability to easily put the game away if playing with a second-half lead.
Final Thoughts on Oklahoma vs. Auburn Best Bets
I have fewer questions about Oklahoma’s offense than Auburn’s, so let’s lay the points with the home team and take Oklahoma against the spread.
Despite the hot start, I just have too many concerns about Arnold and the Tigers offense against Brent Venables‘ defense.
Expect Auburn to stick around the playoff race for a while, even with a loss, but this just looks like a bad schematic matchup for the Tigers.