This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s break down a sneaky good game between two basketball schools chasing a College Football Playoff berth as Illinois pays a visit to Duke.
Illinois vs. Duke, current line:
Illinois at Duke Best Bet Prediction:
Despite being a home underdog, all signs point to the Blue Devils being the better team in this matchup. Take the points and play Duke against the spread, but be sure to shop around as the line has started to drop in some places.
- Illinois vs Duke, current line: Duke +3.5
» Bet it now: Duke +3.5 points
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When Illinois is on Offense
Illinois returns nine starters on the offensive side of the ball including quarterback Luke Altmyer and the entire offensive line.
That’s certainly encouraging for a team that won 10 games a season ago, but there are some red flags when taking a closer look at how Illinois landed at 10 wins against one of the easier power conference schedules.
Illinois relied on a balanced offense with a pass rate 1.1% above expected based on situation data from Campus2Canton.
In the passing game, Altmyer kept the offense on track (only 6 interceptions) but greatly benefited from a schedule that featured some of the nation’s worst pass rush units.
Illinois faced four teams ranked in the top 40 of opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed last year, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Illini went 2-2 in those games, but check out their total offensive output in those contests:
- Win vs. Nebraska (in OT): 381 yards
- Loss vs. Penn State: 219 yards
- Win vs. Michigan: 267 yards
- Loss vs. Oregon: 293 yards
In those four games combined, Altmyer took 13 sacks while facing pressure on 43% of his dropbacks according to Sports Info Solutions.
This trend is noteworthy as it appears Illinois’s offensive line will be overmatched on Saturday based on these 2024 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Illinois: ranked 120th in pressure rate allowed
- Duke: ranked 14th in pressure rate generated
In the opener against Western Illinois, there were no signs of improvement for the Illini. Altmyer faced a 23% pressure rate and took three sacks.
Duke returns three of its top four leaders in pressures from a season ago and generated a 41% pressure rate last week against Elon.
Partially due to its pass rush, Duke was also one of the most challenging teams to attack downfield. The Blue Devils allowed a 33% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone, ranked 24th.
Illinois had a capable downfield passing attack last year, even though it was not a significant part of the offense.
Altmyer’s 46% completion rate ranked 32nd on throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone, per Sports Info Solutions.
However, the Illini lost leading receiver Pat Bryant to the NFL. Bryant had more receptions at that depth than the rest of the team combined.
Illinois is hoping West Virginia transfer Hudson Clement can fill that void, but he’ll need to take a significant step forward.
Take a look at their route-adjusted catch rates from a season ago, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Bryant: 16.4% above expected
- Clement: 1.8% above expected
Due to concerns about the passing attack, Illinois might need to lead on running backs Kaden Feagin and Aidan Laughery in the run game.
Check out the matchup in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Illinois: ranked 58th in yards before contact
- Duke: ranked 89th in yards before contact allowed
At first glance, it looks like a slight edge for Illinois, but Duke’s defensive scheme could pose problems.
Bret Bielema’s old school approach to the run game allows defenses to load the box. Illinois ball carriers faced a stacked box at the nation’s 21st-highest rate last year (61%).
That approach plays right into Duke’s hands.
Manny Diaz and coordinator Jonathan Patke are among the few defensive coaches who prefer stacked boxes these days and used them at the nation’s 14th-highest rate last year, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Check out Duke’s run defense broken down by box type last year:
- Light box: 6.0 yards per attempt, ranked 94th
- Stacked box: 4.0 yards per attempt, ranked 38th
And although Illinois prefers the stacked box, Feagin and Laughery weren’t exactly dominant in that situation.
Illini running backs averaged 4.2 yards per attempt into a stacked box, ranked 82nd.
The conservative and inconsistent rushing attack often put Illinois in tough down and distance situations last year. The Illini offense ranked 104th in rate of facing third-and-long situations.
So Altmyer will likely be forced to make some critical third-down conversions 一 and we’ve already covered the mismatch in the pass protection battle, which will only be amplified on obvious passing downs.
When Duke is on Offense
Duke returns six starters on offense, most notably four offensive linemen from one of the nation’s best units a season ago.
Despite inconsistent quarterback play from Texas transfer Maalik Murphy, Duke ran a pass-heavy offense in 2024 with a pass rate 8.3% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
Expect a similar, if not more aggressive, approach this year with Tulane transfer Darian Mensah leading the offense.
Mensah, a redshirt sophomore, was one of the most significant and surprising portal additions of the offseason and potentially makes Duke a threat in the ACC over the next few seasons.
Duke’s pass rate jumped to 17.4% above expected in Week 1 against Elon.
The offensive line is one of the keys to Duke’s ability to lean on the pass, and the Blue Devils should hold a significant edge in the pass protection battle.
Take a look at these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Duke: ranked eighth in pressure rate allowed
- Illinois: ranked 83rd in pressure rate generated
The Illini’s inability to generate pressure was especially concerning given their aggressive blitz tendencies.
Illinois ranked 17th in the nation in blitz rate (34%) but was 97th in pressure rate generated on the blitz.
Duke’s experienced offensive line should have little issue handling the blitz, as it ranked 30th in pressure rate allowed against the blitz in 2024.
Mensah also has plenty of weapons at receiver.
Sahmir Hagans and Que'Sean Brown both return after playing key roles on last year’s team and are starting alongside Harvard transfer Cooper Barkate.
Former Oklahoma starter Andrel Anthony was unable to win a starting gig, but he also provides quality depth to the unit.
On a positive note for Illinois, almost the entire secondary returns and should match up well with Duke’s receivers.
Even when the pass rush failed to generate pressure, Illinois’ secondary held up relatively well, allowing 7.9 yards per attempt, ranked 29th.
Illinois is one of the few defenses that relies on man coverage (second-highest rate in FBS), and this experienced secondary thrived in that scheme and consistently took away big plays.
The Illinois defense allowed 20 or more yards on just 4.9% of plays, the nation’s 13th-lowest rate.
If Illinois forces Duke to pivot to the run game, the Blue Devils should be able to move the ball, but the advantage is less pronounced based on these 2024 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Duke: ranked 71st in yards before contact
- Illinois: ranked 131st in yards before contact allowed
- Duke: ranked 132nd in yards after contact
- Illinois: ranked 24th in yards after contact allowed
Duke’s run game could potentially improve this year, however, due to the return of Jaquez Moore, who missed most of last year after a Week 2 injury.
Take a look at Duke’s primary ball carriers from the last two seasons when accounting for defenders in the box and the inside/outside direction of the run via stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- 2024 Star Thomas: 17.8% fewer yards than expected
- 2023: Jaquez Moore: 8.6% more yards than expected
Given the return of Moore and the experience of Duke’s offensive line, improvement should be expected.
Duke’s scheme could also pose problems for Illinois, as it’s a clash of styles.
The Blue Devils run a spread offense, which created light boxes for its ball carriers at the nation’s 13th-highest rate (69% of the time), whereas Illinois’ defense prefers heavy boxes and used them at the fourth-highest rate (78%).
Regardless of what the defense wants, however, the offense can typically dictate box numbers with its formations, so Moore is likely to see plenty of light boxes.
And since Illinois is inexperienced in those situations, the run defense suffers.
When lining up with six or fewer defenders in the box, Illinois allowed 5.5 yards per attempt last season, ranked 73rd.
Final Thoughts on Duke vs. Illinois Best Bets
It’s hard to find an area where Illinois holds a clear advantage, so taking the home underdog is an easy choice 一 bet Duke against the spread.
Not only is Illinois likely overrated due to last year’s favorable schedule, but Duke’s offensive scheme appears to be designed perfectly to exploit some flaws in Illinois’ defense.