This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this year's Cy-Hawk showdown as Iowa travels to Ames to take on Iowa State.
Iowa vs. Iowa State, current line:
Iowa at Iowa State Best Bet Prediction:
The Cyclones appear to have a considerable talent advantage on offense, so let's bet Iowa State against the spread.
- Iowa vs Iowa State, current line: Iowa State -3.5
» Bet it now: Iowa State -3.5 points
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When Iowa is on Offense
The Hawkeyes remain one of the nation’s most conservative run-heavy offenses under head coach Kirk Ferentz and coordinator Tim Lester.
According to Campus2Canton, Iowa’s pass rate was 8.4% below expected in 2024 based on situational data, the lowest rate in the Big Ten.
Iowa traditionally relies on a dominant offensive line to pave the way, and the unit returns three starters after a strong performance in 2024.
At first glance, the Hawkeyes hold a considerable advantage on the ground based on these 2024 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Iowa: ranked 16th in yards before contact gained
- Iowa State: ranked 100th in yards before contact allowed
However, Iowa State’s numbers in this area might be misleading, at least in regards to this particular matchup.
The Cyclones run a 3-3-5 defense under coordinator Jon Heacock and rarely crowd the line of scrimmage in an effort to create early contact.
Instead, Heacock's defense focuses on swarming the ball carrier at the second level, and his team ranked 16th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed.
Beating Iowa State’s defense on the ground requires a running back who can fight through contact, and the Hawkeyes might not have that this week. Starter Kamari Moulton was injured last week and will not suit up.
Redshirt-sophomore Terrell Washington Jr. will take over as the lead back with redshirt-freshman Xavier Williams as his backup.
Washington and Williams combined for zero broken or missed tackles on 26 carries against Albany in the season opener, per Sports Info Solutions.
In last year’s matchup, Kaleb Johnson ran all over the Cyclones defense (25 carries for 187 yards), but there is likely to be a significant dropoff in talent from Johnson, a third-round NFL draft pick, to the inexperienced Washington and Williams.
A new wrinkle in the Iowa run game is quarterback Mark Gronowski, a transfer from South Dakota State.
In four years with the Jackrabbits, Gronowski ran for over 1,700 career yards, topping 500 yards in a season twice.
Iowa hasn’t had a quarterback reach even 250 yards since Heisman runner-up Brad Banks in 2002.
This is potentially a problem for Iowa State, as the Cyclones ranked 120th in opponent-adjusted rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks last season.
Gronowski ran for 47 yards on 10 carries, excluding sacks, in his season debut, so the Hawkeyes clearly plan to make his athleticism a part of their offense.
In the passing game, however, Gronowski flopped, completing just eight of 15 passes for 44 yards.
The issue seemed to be Gronowski’s inability to make quick decisions, as no FBS quarterback held the ball longer per dropback in Week 1.
Iowa returns three starters from a capable offensive line, which should hold an edge in this matchup based on these 2024 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Iowa: ranked 49th in pressure rate allowed
- Iowa State: ranked 67th in pressure rate generated
However, Gronowksi was under pressure on 44% of his dropbacks against Albany due to his inability to get rid of the ball on time.
When Iowa State is on Offense
Iowa State returns eight starters on offense from a unit that put up 31.1 points per game last season under coordinator Taylor Mouser, who also returns for his second year as the Cyclones’ playcaller.
Mouser ran a conservative scheme in 2024, with a pass rate just 0.6% above average based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
However, the Cyclones have trended towards a slightly more pass-heavy offense through the season's first two games with a rate 3.0% above expected.
Quarterback Rocco Becht enters his third year as the starter, so confidence in his decision-making has likely grown, leading to a more aggressive approach.
Iowa State also appears to have a deeper receiving corps than expected, led by tight ends Gabe Burkle and Benjamin Brahmer, who are tied for the team lead in targets.
Based on this opponent-adjusted data from last year, the Cyclones' offensive line should be able to protect Becht:
- Iowa State: ranked 47th in pressure rate allowed
- Iowa: ranked 70th in pressure rate generated
In last year’s matchup, Becht faced pressure on 26% of his dropbacks, his fourth-lowest rate in 12 games against power conference opponents per Sports Info Solutions.
Iowa generated an impressive 56.7% pressure rate in its opener, but it’s impossible to draw conclusions from a performance against an FCS team that went 4-8 a season ago.
With last year’s leading receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins now in the NFL, it appears as though Iowa State wants to lean on its tight ends and should be able to do so in this matchup.
Iowa coordinator Phil Parker relies heavily on two high coverages, which bodes well for Burkle and Brahmer.
Two high coverages typically open up the middle of the field for tight ends, and only three teams used two high coverage more often than Iowa last year (46%), per Sports Info Solutions.
In 2024, Burkle and Brahmer saw a combined 15.1% target share against two high coverages compared to 10.7% against all other coverage schemes.
In the run game, Iowa State leans on the duo of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama, both of whom are averaging under four yards per carry through two games.
Iowa State’s run blocking was not great last season, but neither was Iowa’s run defense.
Check out the matchup based on these 2024 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Iowa State: ranked 75th in yards before contact
- Iowa: ranked 77th in yards before contact allowed
- Iowa State: 86th in yards after contact
- Iowa: ranked 74th in yards after contact allowed
For as long as head coach Matt Campbell has been at Iowa State, the Cyclones have run a slow paced offense with an old school rushing attack, and it consistently limits the offense.
Last year, Iowa State stubbornly lined up in heavy formations so frequently only only one non-triple-option team saw more stacked boxes 一 and even Navy saw more stacked boxes at a rate just one percentage point higher than the Cyclones (77% to 78%).
So don’t expect Iowa State to run all over Iowa, but we shouldn’t bet on Iowa’s run defense dominating either.
Even with a stacked box, Iowa struggled to get into the backfield against the run.
With seven or more defenders, Iowa only stopped opposing running backs for zero or negative yards 15% of the time, ranked 99th.
So while Hansen and Sama likely won’t do much damage, they can probably plow forward with enough frequency to keep the chains moving with some regularity.
Final Thoughts on Iowa State vs. Iowa Best Bets
If Campbell lets Mouser open up the passing game, the Cyclones should cruise to a win, so let’s bet Iowa State against the spread.
I’m always a little hesitant to bet on Campbell’s squad. His slow, conservative pace lets underdogs hang around and leads to upsets.
However, given the injury to Moulton and the brutal debut of Gronowski, it shouldn’t take too many points to bury the Hawkeyes.