This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a battle of SEC undefeated teams as LSU pays a visit to Ole Miss.
LSU vs. Ole Miss, current line:
LSU at Ole Miss Best Bet Prediction:
Brian Kelly‘s offense has been sloppy, but the defense looks among the best in the country, so take the road underdog and play LSU against the spread.
- LSU vs Ole Miss, current line: LSU +1.5
When LSU is on Offense
LSU runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Joe Sloan, who is in his second year in that role under Brian Kelly.
According to Campus2Canton, the Tigers throw the ball at a rate 12% above expected based on situation data.
Although it’s still early, don’t expect that trend to change as the Tigers have absolutely no run game.
To make matters worse, starting running back Caden Durham is listed as questionable on the injury report.
The issue in the run game is LSU’s offensive line, which can’t create any running lanes.
Against FBS competition, LSU running backs have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 63% of their carries, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Fortunately for the Tigers, the Ole Miss defense doesn’t pose much of a threat 一 it ranks just 66th in early contact rate 一 but LSU is still unlikely to trust its rushing attack given the recent issues.
The LSU offensive line has been more consistent in pass protection but might face a challenge from this Ole Miss defense based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- LSU: 25% pressure rate allowed, ranked 22nd
- Ole Miss: 44% pressure rate generated, ranked eighth
It’s hard to buy into Ole Miss’ early season success, however, as it ranked 71st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate a season ago and didn’t add much from the portal.
If we look just at the first half of games, Ole Miss ranks a more modest 42nd in pressure rate generated, which indicates garbage time might be inflating some numbers.
When Garrett Nussmeier drops back to pass, he has mostly been attacking defenses underneath, which has the potential to give Ole Miss some problems.
Check out these numbers on the Ole Miss defense, via Sports Info Solutions, which raise a red flag:
- 7.3 yards per reception allowed on throws five or fewer yards downfield, ranked 91st
- 6.3 yards after catch allowed per reception, ranked 101st
Although LSU’s passing attack has been inconsistent, this is the type of defense against which Tigers receivers should thrive.
LSU’s leading receiver Aaron Anderson is particularly well suited to attack the Ole Miss defense.
Based on route-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Anderson generated 21% more yards after catch than expected last year and is picking up an impressive 8.0 yards after catch per reception so far this season as well.
When Nussmeier does attack downfield, he’ll need to be cautious against this Ole Miss secondary.
Although Ole Miss has just 2 interceptions, a 21% ball-hawk rate indicates this secondary excels at disrupting passes, and it’s only a matter of time before the Landsharks start forcing more turnovers.
When Ole Miss is on Offense
Ole Miss runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach Lane Kiffin and coordinator Charlie Weis Jr, though the scheme has been more conservative this year as they are breaking in new quarterbacks.
Check out Ole Miss’ pass rate over expected in recent years based on situational data from Campus2Canton:
- 2024: 7.7% above expected
- 2025: 3.8% above expected
Kiffin opened up the offense with the experienced Jaxson Dart taking snaps last season, but has dialed it back this year with Austin Simmons and Trinidad Chambliss.
Simmons started the first two contests for Ole Miss, but an ankle injury forced him to the bench in favor of Chambliss.
Chambliss has been named the starter again this week, though Simmons is off the injury report. So, at least for now, Chambliss has won the job.
The raw numbers are remarkably similar between the two quarterbacks, but Chambliss blows Simmons out of the water in two crucial categories.
Check out their production under pressure, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Chambliss: 64% completion rate, 15.3 yards per attempt
- Simmons: 30% completion rate, 3.9 yards per attempt
And now look at their stats on throws 10 or more yards downfield:
- Chambliss: 15-22 (68%), 1 touchdown
- Simmons: 8-24 (33%), 2 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
Kiffin has made some adjustments to the passing game this year, relying more on quick one-read throws to cut down on the mental load on his young quarterbacks.
Ole Miss quarterbacks have taken a traditional dropback of three or more steps just 27% of the time 一 a steep dropoff from Dart’s 48% rate in 2024.
The quick passing attack, theoretically, limits the ability of the defense to get to the quarterback, but that might not be the case in this matchup.
Ole Miss quarterbacks have faced pressure on 20% of their non-traditional dropbacks (ranked 50th) while LSU has generated pressure on 29% of non-traditional dropbacks (ranked 30th), according to Sports Info Solutions.
When Ole Miss isn’t trying to get rid of the ball quickly, its quarterbacks are taking shots downfield.
Outside the red zone, 23% of Ole Miss’ attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, the nation’s 22nd-highest rate.
Ole Miss quarterbacks have completed 62% of those throws, but the LSU defense poses a new challenge.
Opposing quarterbacks are just 6 for 20 with 2 interceptions on throws at that depth against LSU, while Tigers defensive backs have generated an impressive 30% ball-hawk rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.
LSU’s defense has made significant strides this season in coordinator Blake Baker’s second year.
Even when failing to generate pressure, LSU is only allowing a 62% completion rate (ranked 15th) and 5.2 yards per attempt (ranked seventh).
In the run game, Ole Miss’ spread offense excels at creating light boxes, but LSU’s athletic defense is likely up for the challenge.
Check out the run game numbers when the defense has six or fewer defenders in the box, according to Sports Info Solutions:
- Ole Miss: 5.6 yards per attempt, ranked 51st
- LSU: 2.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked fourth
Despite seeing a high rate of light boxes, Ole Miss ball carriers have not been able to take advantage with explosive plays this season.
Only 13% of Ole Miss' run plays have produced 10 or more yards, which ranks 71st.
Final Thoughts on Ole Miss vs. LSU Best Bets
It’s hard to overlook the gap in experience at quarterback, so let’s take LSU against the spread.
As impressive as Chambliss has been, a year ago at this time, he was preparing to face something called American International, so it’s hard to believe he’s up for taking down what might be the best defense in the SEC.