This season, I've been breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into the final game of the season, with Miami and Indiana squaring off for the National Championship.
Miami vs. Indiana, current line:
Miami vs. Indiana Best Bet Prediction:
It has been a magical postseason run for Miami, but this matchup looks like a mismatch in all phases of the game 一 take Indiana against the spread.
- Miami vs. Indiana, best line: Indiana -8.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Indiana -8.5 points
When Miami is on Offense
Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson calls a conservative but pass-heavy offense, relying heavily on Carson Beck’s ability to make sound decisions and distribute the ball on underneath routes.
In the semifinals against Ole Miss, Dawson arguably relied too heavily on the passing attack when Ole Miss clearly didn’t have the run defense to stop Mark Fletcher.
That likely won’t be an issue against Indiana, however, as the Hoosiers are likely to dominate on the ground and force Miami to attack through the air.
Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions on the run game matchup:
- Miami: ranked 71st in yards before contact
- Indiana: ranked 3rd in yards before contact allowed
- Miami: ranked 43rd in yards after contact
- Indiana: ranked 15th in yards after contact allowed
Opposing defenses tend to stack the box at an elevated rate against the Hurricanes, partially due to Miami’s formations but also a lack of respect for the downfield passing attack.
This is a problematic trend for Miami based on these stacked-box numbers:
- Miami: 4.1 yards per attempt, ranked 85th
- Indiana: 2.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 4th
Additionally, the Hoosiers have stopped ball carriers for zero or negative yards 34% of the time with a stacked box, the nation’s second-highest rate.
So, unless Miami leans heavily into spread formations, the Hoosiers will likely stack the box consistently and shut down Fletcher and the Canes' rushing attack.
As a result, Beck will need to carry the offense, which will require help from his offensive line.
Fortunately for Beck, Miami has the best offensive line in the nation and should be able contain Indiana’s pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Miami: ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed
- Indiana: ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
Indiana will also be without two of its top pass rushers, Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley, though that was significantly less of an issue against Oregon than anticipated.
The Hoosiers didn’t miss Wyatt and Daley in large part due to the emergence of Daniel Ndukwe, who generated 5 pressures, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble against the Ducks after registering just 4 pressures and 0 sacks through the team’s first 14 games.
Incredibly, Indiana generated an identical 50% pressure rate against the Ducks in the semifinals as it did earlier this season when both Wyatt and Daley were active.
Before those games, Oregon had not been pressured at that rate since the 2020 season.
It’s also worth noting that Oregon’s offensive line had been dominant this year, entering the game ranked sixth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
So while Miami does appear to have an edge in this area, the Canes should not underestimate Indiana’s ability to get pressure on Beck.
Although Miami throws the ball at a high rate, it’s still a conservative offense due to the rate at which Beck throws to underneath routes.
Miami’s pass attempts have been five or fewer yards downfield 56% of the time, the seventh-highest rate in the FBS.
This is a problematic approach against Indiana, which thrives at limiting production on shorter throws.
On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Indiana is allowing just 4.6 yards per attempt (ranked 22nd) and 5.9 yards per completion (ranked 13th), per Sports Info Solutions.
The best way to beat Indiana, theoretically, would be to protect the quarterback long enough to attack downfield at a high rate.
Miami, potentially, has the offensive line to attempt this strategy, but Dawson has been hesitant to trust Beck with a downfield-heavy game plan this year.
Outside the red zone, Miami throws 15 or more yards downfield just 20% of the time, ranked 104th.
However, Indiana ranks 85th in completion rate allowed at that depth, so it’s a potential area where Miami could gain an edge if Dawson is willing to get more aggressive.
Miami has, presumably, not leaned more on the downfield passing game in an effort to protect Beck from himself.
Beck has thrown 23 interceptions over the last two seasons and has a history of putting the ball in harm’s way.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, opposing defenses have generated a 20% ball-hawk rate against Miami (ranked 105th), a strong indication there’s nothing fluky about Beck’s high interception total.
Beck will need to be particularly careful against Indiana’s secondary, which excels at getting their hands on the ball.
On throws at that depth, the Hoosiers rank 22nd with a 21% ball-hawk rate.
So while the downfield passing attack is potentially an area where Miami can gain an edge, it comes with great risk and is not likely an approach the Canes will lean into unless the scoreboard dictates a more aggressive approach.
Finally, Miami’s lack of discipline 一 which nearly cost the Hurricanes a spot in this game 一 needs to be addressed.
Check out where Mario Cristobal’s teams have ranked in penalty yardage per game:
- 2025 Miami: ranked 85th
- 2024 Miami: ranked 120th
- 2023 Miami: ranked 95th
- 2022 Miami: ranked 94th
- 2021 Oregon: ranked 111th
- 2020 Oregon: ranked 61st (six-game season)
- 2019 Oregon: ranked 103rd
- 2018 Oregon: ranked 42nd
Cristobal runs one of the least disciplined programs in the country, and he’ll be going up against arguably the most fundamentally sound program in the sport.
Indiana ranks second in penalty yardage per game, and Curt Cignetti’s teams have never ranked worse than 28th during his time in the FBS.
You can’t afford to shoot yourself in the foot against Indiana, and Cristobal’s tenure at Miami has been defined by mistakes.
When Indiana is on Offense
Indiana runs a balanced offense leaning heavily on RPOs under coordinator Mike Shanahan, who has been in the same role under Curt Cignetti since the 2021 season at James Madison.
Shanahan’s use of RPOs and quick dropbacks will be critical in this matchup as a way to limit the effect of Miami’s pass-rush unit.
On the surface, it looks like Miami’s pass rush has an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Indiana: ranked 16th in pressure rate allowed
- Miami: ranked 2nd in pressure rate generated
However, Miami has been vulnerable to quick dropbacks, which is a critical piece of the Hoosier offense.
Indiana uses quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) 47% of the time, the 20th-highest rate in the nation.
Miami only ranks 59th in pressure rate generated on those quick dropbacks, making it unlikely that Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain terrorize Fernando Mendoza in the same way they did Ohio State’s Julian Sayin earlier in the playoffs.
This was a factor in the Fiesta Bowl, as Ole Miss’ heavy usage of quick dropbacks limited Miami’s pass-rush production, allowing for just one sack of Trinidad Chambliss.
The defense’s dropoff against quick passers has been a season-long trend for Miami.
There have been five quarterbacks who have posted an average time to throw under 2.7 seconds against the Hurricanes: Chambliss, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, Louisville’s Miller Moss, SMU’s Kevin Jennings, and Pitt’s Mason Heintschel.
Take a look at their numbers against Miami compared to everyone else, via PFF:
Comp % Yds/Att TD-Int Sack Rate Under 2.7 sec QBs 64% 7.3 7-2 5.6% Everyone else 58% 5.7 13-16 9.3%
Mendoza’s average time to throw sits at 2.72 seconds on the season, but because quick dropbacks are already an integral part of the offense, it’s easy for the team to adjust and lower that number when necessary.
However, Mendoza will need to stand in the pocket when the Hoosiers want to attack downfield, and that’s where Miami has a clear advantage.
Take a look at these numbers on traditional dropbacks, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Indiana: ranked 46th in pressure rate allowed
- Miami: ranked 2nd in pressure rate generated
For Indiana to avoid the need for traditional dropbacks, they will need to avoid obvious passing situations.
The Hoosiers have been successful at avoiding those situations in part due to their run game, but also due to incredible production on short throws.
When throwing five or fewer yards downfield, Indiana averages 7.9 yards per attempt, leading the nation.
Miami is allowing 4.9 yards per attempt on throws at that depth (ranked 41st), making this an area where the Hoosiers might have an edge and further enhancing the odds they can negate the Canes’ pass rush with quick, short throws.
The run game should also help Indiana stay ahead of the sticks thanks to its ability to avoid negative plays.
The Hoosiers tend to prefer running from heavier formations, inviting stacked boxes, which is a decent strategy against Miami.
Although Miami’s defensive front is elite against the pass, it doesn’t get into the backfield with the same consistency against the run.
When lined up with a stacked boxed 一 which opponents have done 52% of the time against Indiana 一 Miami only brings the ball carrier down at or behind the line of scrimmage 18% of the time, ranked 79th.
Although Miami has been dominant against lesser competition, the better teams on its schedule have been able to avoid third-and-long situations due to some of these weaknesses.
Overall, Miami ranks 20th in third-and-long force rate, but six teams have faced third-and-long less than 25% of the time against the Hurricanes.
Indiana, however, has excelled against everyone, ranking second in third-and-long avoidance while only facing third-and-longs at a rate higher than 25% once (Penn State).
If Miami can’t put Indiana in those tough down-and-distance situations, it will be difficult to get the Hoosiers off the field.
Final Thoughts on Indiana vs. Miami Best Bets
This is a large spread to cover against a good defense, but if Miami can’t consistently run the ball, the game could gradually snowball out of control, so let’s take Indiana against the spread.