This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into the Cotton Bowl matchup between Miami and Ohio State.
Miami vs. Ohio State, current line:
Miami vs. Ohio State Best Bet Prediction:
The Buckeyes offense is likely too talented for Miami to keep pace, so take Ohio State against the spread.
- Miami vs. Ohio State, best line: Ohio State -8.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Miami -9.5 points
When Miami is on Offense
Miami runs a conservative but pass-heavy offense under coordinator Shannon Dawson, relying on Carson Beck’s ability to distribute the ball efficiently on underneath routes.
However, we just saw Mark Fletcher and Miami dominate Texas A&M with the ground game, so let’s start by dissecting that area of the Hurricane offense in this matchup.
Fletcher’s performance against the Aggies defense came as no surprise, as A&M can’t tackle and was routinely gashed on the ground by the few good teams it faced this year.
Texas A&M ranked 129th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed entering that first-round matchup 一 Ohio State ranks fourth.
Miami is also unlikely to find many open lanes in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Miami: ranked 85th in yards before contact
- Ohio State: ranked 32nd in yards before contact allowed
Ohio State’s defense also ranks eighth in explosive rush rate allowed, whereas Texas A&M ranks 124th.
So the Canes will likely need to rely on Beck and the passing attack to provide the offense in this matchup.
Fortunately for Miami, it appears to hold an edge in the pass-protection battle based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Miami: ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 37th in pressure rate generated
Beck takes traditional dropbacks at a high rate (55%), but that typically doesn’t hurt the Canes' pass protection. It still leads the nation in pressure rate allowed on those plays.
While Ohio State might not get to Beck often, its pass defense has been exceptional against traditional dropbacks, allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt, ranked fourth in the nation.
One of the reasons Miami’s passing game struggled against Texas A&M is its tendency to attack underneath.
Since the Canes don’t trust Beck to throw downfield (more on that later), 57% of their throws have been five or fewer yards downfield, the seventh-highest rate.
That was problematic against A&M, which has playmakers at the second level capable of stepping up against those throws, and the Aggies allow just 5.1 yards per completion on those plays.
Unfortunately for Miami, the only defense that has been better than A&M is Ohio State, which is allowing 4.9 yards per completion on those short throws.
When Miami does attack downfield, Ohio State’s secondary is also more dangerous than A&M's.
The Canes don’t throw downfield often due to Beck’s tendency to put the ball in harm’s way.
Beck has thrown 22 interceptions over the last two years, and his ball-hawk rate indicates there’s nothing fluky about those numbers.
On Miami’s throws 10 or more yards downfield, the defense has made a play on the ball 22% of the time this season, ranked 123rd per Sports Info Solutions.
Beck protected the ball against A&M, but a factor in that outcome was the Aggies secondary which ranks 117th in downfield ball-hawk rate.
While Ohio State’s secondary isn’t elite in that area, it ranks 65th, which makes it significantly more dangerous than A&M, especially against a turnover prone quarterback.
This trend could potentially come into play if Miami were to fall behind and get forced into a more aggressive game plan.
In that scenario, Beck will likely start forcing some questionable decisions, and an ill-timed turnover could allow Ohio State to blow the game open.
It’s also worth noting Miami’s offense doesn’t produce a ton of big plays, ranking only 64th in explosive play rate.
Meanwhile, the Buckeye defense leads the nation in explosive play rate allowed 一 another trend which diminishes the odds of Beck leading a late comeback should the Canes fall behind.
When Ohio State is on Offense
Ohio State runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach Ryan Day and coordinator Brian Hartline.
Hartline, in his first season as the Buckeyes' play caller, has taken the head coaching job at South Florida but is remaining with Ohio State through the playoffs.
According to Campus2Canton, the Buckeyes throw the ball at a rate 6.8% above expected based on situation data.
A pass-centric approach has not been the best way to attack Miami this season, but Ohio State’s offensive line will be one of the best the Hurricanes have faced.
Check out the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: ranked 12th in pressure rate allowed
- Miami: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated
Redshirt-freshman quarterback Julian Sayin has handled pressure well this season, but showed some flaws against Indiana in the Big Ten title game.
The Hoosiers generated pressure on 44% of Sayin’s dropbacks, the highest rate he’s faced all season.
Indiana also sacked Sayin five times, after he took just 6 sacks during the regular season.
However, Sayin was also 6 for 10 against pressure while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt on those throws.
Sayin’s success against Indiana pressure (aside from the sacks) was no surprise given that he leads the nation in completion rate against pressure (66%) while also averaging 8.0 yards per attempt (ranked 18th).
These numbers are noteworthy against a Miami secondary that hasn’t always held up its end of the bargain when the pass rush gets pressure.
When generating pressure, Miami still allows a 45% completion rate (ranked 59th) and 5.3 yards per attempt (ranked 32nd) 一 not terrible numbers, but not the elite production the Hurricanes have generated in most other situations.
Perhaps more importantly, Miami has only converted 17% of pressures into sacks, ranked 73rd in the FBS, so Sayin’s impressive sack avoidance may return to form in this matchup.
Although the downfield passing attack is not a huge part of the Ohio State offense, expect Sayin to take some shots with the deep ball when he has protection.
Outside the red zone, only 18% of the Buckeyes' pass attempts have been 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 126th, but Sayin leads the nation with an absurd 65% completion rate on those throws.
The Hurricanes are allowing a 37% completion rate at that depth, ranked 41st.
In an effort to negate Miami’s pass rush, expect Ohio State to attack on underneath routes the majority of the time.
Shorter throws have been another area of relative weakness for this Miami defense, as it allows 6.7 yards per completion on throws five or fewer yards downfield, ranked 57th.
One of the reasons for that trend is a tackling issue in Miami’s secondary.
The Hurricanes are allowing a missed or broken tackle once every 4.2 receptions, ranked 117th.
In the run game, Miami’s defense should hold a slight edge based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: ranked 41st in yards before contact
- Miami: ranked 27th in yards before contact allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 57th in yards after contact
- Miami: ranked 30th in yards after contact allowed
Ohio State tends to run the ball from heavy formations, as 47% of its attempts have been in 12 personnel formations.
Miami is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry to running backs against 12 personnel, though a significant portion of those carries occurred against Stanford and Florida, two teams with no rushing attack.
The strength of Miami’s defense, however, is the defensive line, and Ohio State might have more success than others due to its tendency to direct runs to the outside.
Ohio State running backs take the ball outside the tackles 64% of the time, the 20th-highest rate.
That’s a good strategy against Miami, which only ranks 53rd in yards per carry allowed to the outside (4.8).
Another reason to trust Ohio State in this matchup is its discipline relative to Miami.
Ohio State ranks 19th in penalty yardage per game, while Miami ranks 96th.
Final Thoughts on Ohio State vs. Miami Best Bets
Miami’s defense can probably keep this competitive for a while, but the Buckeyes have firepower on offense that Miami can’t match, so take Ohio State against the spread.
Ohio State is not only the more talented team, but Miami’s lack of discipline, Beck’s turnover issues, and Mario Cristobal’s chronic game mismanagement put the Hurricanes at a significant disadvantage.