This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a battle of ranked Big Ten foes as number one Ohio State visits 17th-ranked Illinois.
Ohio State vs. Illinois, current line:
Ohio State at Illinois Best Bet Prediction:
Points will be tough to come by for the Illini, so let’s play Ohio State against the spread.
- Ohio State vs Illinois, best line: Ohio State -14
» Bet it now at Novig: Ohio State -14.5 points
When Ohio State is on Offense
Ohio State runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach Ryan Day and first-year play caller Brian Hartline.
According to Campus2Canton, the Buckeyes pass rate is 9.0% above expected based on situational data 一 a slight jump from last year’s 6.3% rate under Chip Kelly.
The shift to a pass-heavy approach is mildly surprising given Julian Sayin’s inexperience at quarterback, but the former five-star recruit has lived up to expectations and is knocking on the door of the Heisman race.
Sayin owes at least part of his early-season success to the offensive line, which has created plenty of time for him in the pocket and will likely continue to do so against the Illini based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: ranked fourth in pressure rate allowed
- Illinois: ranked 113th in pressure rate generated
In a clean pocket, Sayin is completing 79.5% of his passes (ranked sixth in the FBS) at 9.8 yards per attempt (ranked 15th), so Illinois’ lack of pass-rush production should allow for a big day from Sayin.
Although Ohio State has been leaning on the pass, it has been a relatively conservative passing attack so far.
Outside the red zone, just 13.5% of Ohio State’s pass attempts have been 15 or more yards downfield, the nation’s fourth-lowest rate per Sports Info Solutions.
Although that lowers the odds of the Buckeyes hitting on a big play, it’s a trend that should concern Illinois, as the Illini have not defended the short passing game well this year.
In fact, Illinois’ 89% completion rate allowed on throws less than 10 yards downfield ranks dead last in the FBS, with their 7.8 yards per attempt allowed ranking as the sixth-worst rate.
On the flip side, Sayin’s 88% completion rate on those shorter throws is the nation’s third-highest mark.
The Buckeyes are unlikely to have an issue with Illinois’ run defense either, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: ranked 19th in yards before contact
- Illinois: ranked 103rd in yards before contact allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 40th in yards after contact
- Illinois: ranked 26th in yards after contact allowed
Ohio State frequently leans on heavier formations 一 45% of handoffs to running backs have occurred in 12 personnel 一 which allows defenses to stack the box.
Buckeye running backs have faced a stacked box on 65% of attempts, the nation’s 14th-highest rate.
So let’s check out Illinois’ numbers with a stacked box, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 2.1 yards before contact allowed, ranked 97th
- 40% early contact rate, ranked 90th
- 4.4 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 68th
The emergence of true freshman running back Bo Jackson is also a factor, as the Buckeyes' rushing attack has gradually improved as he’s taken over the backfield.
Jackson did not play in the season opener against Texas, but was dominant in garbage time against Grambling and Ohio.
Day gave him a shot at a bigger role against Washington, and Jackson was strong enough to earn the starting job for the first time last week against Minnesota.
It has been a meteoric rise for Jackson, who wasn’t even Ohio State’s highest-ranked running back recruit in the 2025 class.
As for the Illinois run defense, the inability to get into the backfield and create negative plays has allowed opposing offenses to stay ahead of the chains.
The Illini have only forced opponents into a third-down attempt on 40% of sets of downs (ranked 123rd), and only 16% of sets of downs have led to a third-and-long situation (ranked 129th).
Meanwhile, Ohio State’s offense is avoiding third downs at the nation’s fourth-best rate and third-and-longs at the fifth-best rate.
This could get ugly for the Illinois defense.
When Illinois is on Offense
Illinois offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. has opened up the offense more this season, leaning on a pass-heavy approach with third-year starter Luke Altmyer at quarterback.
According to Campus2Canton, the Illini throw the ball at a rate 6.2% above expected based on situation data, the fifth-highest rate in the Big Ten.
Though Ohio State has arguably the nation’s best defense, one potential weakness is the lack of an elite pass rush, which might give Illinois a chance to keep pace in this game.
Check out the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Illinois: ranked 46th in pressure rate allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 54th in pressure rate generated
When Altmyer has time in the pocket, he’ll likely try to take some shots downfield, as that has been a strength of the Illini offense.
Outside the red zone, Altmyer is completing 74% of his throws of 15 or more yards, leading the nation.
However, that number is padded by a ridiculous 8 for 9 performance against Purdue last week.
Expect him to come back down to earth against Ohio State, though the Buckeyes' downfield pass defense has had moments of vulnerability.
On throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone, Buckeye opponents are completing 48% of their passes, ranked 96th per Sports Info Solutions.
Although Illinois might have some success throwing downfield, given its struggles on defense, the only way to remain competitive with Ohio State will be to control the clock with its rushing attack.
Based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, the Illini might have a chance to move the ball on the ground:
- Illinois: ranked 39th in yards before contact
- Ohio State: ranked 63rd in yards before contact allowed
- Illinois: ranked 128th in yards after contact
- Ohio State: ranked 16th in yards after contact allowed
However, Illinois’ pro-style offense might play into Ohio State’s hands.
Illinois’ primary run formation has been 12 personnel, which has forced its ball carriers to run into a stacked box at the nation’s 30th highest rate.
So let’s check out how these teams compare with seven or more defenders in the box, via stats from Sports Info Solutions:
Illinois Offense (Rank) Ohio State Defense (Rank) Yards Before Contact 1.9 (49th) 1.0 (29th) Yards per Attempt 3.6 (104th) 3.2 (21st) % of Att for 0 or Negative Yards 25.3% (111th) 24.5% (28th)
Those numbers are especially concerning for the Illini against Ohio State, as coordinator Matt Patricia stacks the box at a high rate due to his experience in the NFL, where boxes of seven or more defenders are the norm.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Patricia’s defense has stacked the box at a rate 47% above expected, the 12th-highest rate in the nation.
Another issue facing Illinois is the health of its backfield.
Aidan Laughery, who started the first two games of the year, has missed three games due to injury including last week against Purdue.
Kaden Feagin has taken over as the starter, sharing duties with Ca'Lil Valentine, who leads the team in rushing.
Valentine might be on the verge of taking over the starter, as he took 22 carries last week compared to just 10 for Feagin.
However, the explosive 190-pound Valentine might be a liability against an aggressive defense like Ohio State.
When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Valentine has been stuffed in the backfield an absurd 78% of the time.
The 250-pound Feagin is, predictably, much better at handling early contact and has been stuffed in the backfield 44% of the time against early contact.
Illinois can’t afford negative plays if it wants to play keep away by controlling this game on the ground, so Feagin might be the better option even if his ceiling as a ball carrier is lower.
Final Thoughts on Illinois vs. Ohio State Best Bets
Ryan Day’s squad is undefeated against the spread this year, so let’s follow that trend and take Ohio State against the spread.
Although the Buckeyes have been known for their offense for much of Day’s tenure, it’s the defense that deserves credit for the recent dominance.
Ohio State has allowed just 2 touchdowns through five games, making it nearly impossible for anyone to keep the game close enough to cover.
Illinois will likely reach the end zone, but it will be tough to put up enough points to stay within 2 touchdowns.