This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out this year's Red River Rivalry as Texas tries to win two in a row over Oklahoma for the first time since Colt McCoy was in Austin.
Oklahoma vs. Texas, current line:
Oklahoma vs. Texas Best Bet Prediction:
Trust the better defense in this one and play Oklahoma against the spread.
- Oklahoma vs. Texas, best line: Oklahoma +2
» Bet it now at Novig: Oklahoma +1.5 points
When Oklahoma is on Offense
Unfortunately, there’s a lot we don’t know about Oklahoma’s offense heading into this game due to the uncertain status of quarterback John Mateer, who is recovering from hand surgery.
Initially, head coach Brent Venables expressed hope that Mateer would return to face South Carolina next week, but ESPN has since reported that Mateer is “pushing to return” for the Red River Rivalry.
It’s probably best to bet against Mateer taking the field in this matchup, as Oklahoma has a lot more at stake than just this rivalry game.
The final five opponents on Oklahoma’s schedule are all currently ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll.
Having Mateer healthy for that grind is probably more important than rushing him back for this game, as there will be plenty of opportunities to pad the playoff résumé with quality wins regardless of this week’s outcome.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, Oklahoma has thrown the ball at a rate 11% above expected this season 一 a dramatic shift from last year’s rate of 3.5% below expected.
But will that continue with Michael Hawkins at quarterback?
Hawkins started last week against Kent State, but it’s impossible to draw conclusions from his performance against one of the worst FBS programs in the country.
One of the concerns in asking Hawkins to maintain a high pass rate is the pass protection battle, which does not appear to be in Oklahoma’s favor based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: ranked 40th in pressure rate allowed
- Texas: ranked 27th in pressure rate generated
Hawkins started last year’s Red River Rivalry (one of four starts he made in place of Jackson Arnold) and faced pressure on 50% of his dropbacks while completing just 4 of 12 passes with 6 sacks versus pressure.
In his four starts last year, Arnold took a sack on 23% of his dropbacks versus pressure, and he has already been sacked on 3 of 7 dropbacks against pressure this season (a small sample to be sure, but still concerning given the competition level).
If Oklahoma can’t trust Hawkins and the passing attack, it will need to pivot to the run game, which has also been an area of weakness for the Sooners.
Take a look at the opponent-adjusted data in the run game via Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: ranked 113th in yards before contact
- Texas: ranked 13th in yards before contact allowed
- Oklahoma: ranked 123rd in yards after contact
- Texas: ranked 25th in yards after contact allowed
These issues are primarily due to injuries on the offensive line, though a poor investment in the transfer portal is also a factor.
Left tackle Jacob Sexton and center Troy Everett were both injured in the season opener and have not returned.
Logan Howland, who started at right tackle in the opener, has also been banged up and is doubtful this week.
For some good news, star freshman left tackle Michael Fasusi, who has missed multiple games due to injury, is not on the injury report and is expected to make his third career start against the Longhorns.
Oklahoma will likely be able to start the same offensive line it did against Michigan, when its running backs gained 57 yards on 19 carries, including 1.2 yards before contact per attempt 一 nothing special, but perfectly fine against one of the nation’s top defenses.
The other issue, however, is running back Jaydn Ott, a transfer from Cal.
While Ott was a genuine star early in his career, he was one of the nation’s worst running backs last season while playing through injuries.
When accounting for defenders in the box and the inside/outside direction of the run, Ott gained 36% fewer yards than expected in 2024, easily the worst rate among qualified power conference running backs per Sports Info Solutions.
There has been no sign of improvement this year, as Ott has picked up just 66 yards on 20 carries.
Ott’s struggles have forced true freshman Tory Blaylock into the spotlight, and he’s started the last two contests.
As you might expect from a young ball carrier, however, Blaylock lacks the physicality to fully carry the load.
Blaylock is averaging just 1.9 yards per attempt when meeting contact before crossing the line of scrimmage, and he has forced just two broken tackles on 57 carries.
All of that said, it’s possible that Texas’ run defense is not at the same level as recent years.
Texas dominated the lesser competition on its schedule (San Jose State, UTEP, and San Jose State), but looked vulnerable in moments against Ohio State and certainly against Florida.
Ohio State running backs gained 3 or more yards before contact on 21% of their carries against Texas, while Florida ball carriers reached a 31% rate last week.
When Oklahoma had this version of its offensive line healthy against Michigan, Sooner running backs gained three or more yards before contact on 26% of their carries, so there is some hope the rushing attack gets back on track this week.
When Texas is on Offense
Texas has used a balanced offense this season, shifting away from the pass-heavy approach used last year with Quinn Ewers at quarterback.
The shift is likely due to a lack of trust in Arch Manning, who appears to have struggled reading defenses this season.
Most notably, Manning is having trouble making quick decisions against the blitz, which is concerning in this matchup as Oklahoma has blitzed opponents at the nation’s 17th-highest rate (39%), per Sports Info Solutions.
When faced with a blitz, Manning has generated -1 EPA or worse on 28% of his dropbacks, ranked 99th in the FBS and dead last among SEC quarterbacks.
Expect Oklahoma to blitz at an extreme rate in this game, as this weakness of Manning’s appears to be well known at this point.
Entering last week’s game, Florida ranked dead last in blitz rate at just 8.0%, but the Gators more than doubled that rate to 20% against Texas, which helped them generate a season-high 58% pressure rate.
Whether Oklahoma blitzes or not, however, Manning is going to be faced with pressure in this game as the Longhorns' offensive line is likely to be overmatched against the Sooners.
Check out the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 123rd in pressure rate allowed
- Oklahoma: ranked first in pressure rate generated
Even when Manning has a clean pocket, things haven’t been going well for the Texas offense.
Take a look at some of Manning’s stats when the defense does not blitz and fails to generate pressure:
- 67% completion rate, ranked 98th out of 141 qualifiers
- 8.2 yards per attempt, ranked 50th
- 5.2% interception rate, ranked 135th
- 48% positive EPA rate, ranked 95th
Since Manning is struggling to read defenses, the Texas passing attack has turned into an all-or-nothing operation: Manning is either throwing screens or chucking it deep.
Outside the red zone, 41% of Manning's pass attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, while another 25% have not crossed the line of scrimmage.
That’s a combined 66% of his passes falling into the all-or-nothing category, the second-highest rate in the nation and well above the FBS average of 45%.
A predictable offense is problematic against any defense, but it’s particularly concerning against Venables and Oklahoma.
Outside the red zone, Oklahoma is allowing a 30% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards, ranked 15th.
And on throws that do not cross the line of scrimmage, the Sooners’ defense leads the nation in allowing just 1.5 yards per attempt.
All of these numbers point to it being a long afternoon for Manning and the need for Texas to establish the run, though that won’t be easy either.
Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions on the run game:
- Texas: ranked 68th in yards before contact
- Oklahoma: ranked sixth in yards before contact allowed
- Texas: ranked 98th in yards after contact
- Oklahoma: ranked 83rd in yards after contact allowed
The rate at which Oklahoma gets into the backfield could be especially problematic for the Longhorns 一 the Sooners contact running backs before crossing the line of scrimmage at a 58% clip, the nation’s second-best rate.
Texas running backs have been stuffed for zero or negative yards 46% of the time when engaged with early contact (ranked 94th), which increases the odds of Oklahoma creating tough down-and-distance situations for Manning and the passing attack.
The Longhorns are just 4 for 34 on third-and-long attempts, an 11.8% conversion rate which ranks 119th.
Good luck improving upon that against a Sooners defense allowing an 8.3% rate by the same metric.
Final Thoughts on Texas vs. Oklahoma Best Bets
Points will be at a premium in this one, but Texas’ predictable play-calling with a struggling quarterback is more concerning, so let’s take the points and bet Oklahoma against the spread.
In a potentially close game with the spread under a field goal, the kicking game should also factor into our thinking.
Texas kicker Mason Shipley has only attempted two kicks of 35 or more yards (he made both).
Oklahoma’s Tate Sandell is 5 for 6 from 35-plus, including 4 for 4 from 45 yards or longer.
Sandell’s early-season performance should only enhance our confidence in the Sooners.