This season, I've been breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into a regular-season rematch in the Peach Bowl between Oregon and Indiana.
Oregon vs. Indiana, current line:
Oregon vs. Indiana Best Bet Prediction:
The first meeting was mostly a defensive struggle that came down to the wire, so let’s take the underdog and play Oregon against the spread.
- Oregon vs. Indiana, best line: Oregon +3.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Oregon +3.5 points
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon runs a balanced offense under coordinator Will Stein, who will be leaving the Ducks after they’re eliminated to take the head coaching job at Kentucky.
When these teams met in October, the Ducks were surprisingly effective on the ground against a nasty Indiana run defense.
Although the official box score shows Oregon averaged just 2.7 yards per attempt, that stat was dramatically skewed by 6 sacks.
Oregon running backs averaged 5.0 yards per carry against Indiana, the most allowed by the Hoosiers all year.
One of the reasons for the Ducks' success was their ability to avoid early contact.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Indiana contacted Oregon running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage just 25% of the time.
The Hoosiers' next lowest rate was 39%, and they ranked third in the country with an average early contact rate of 55%.
Oregon’s rushing attack has only improved since that meeting, as the Ducks have figured out their strength is lining up in heavier formations.
Through the Indiana game, 52% of the Ducks' handoffs occurred when in formations with 12 or 21 personnel, but that rate has jumped to 65% in the weeks since.
It has been a winning strategy for Oregon, as it’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry from 12 and 21 personnel compared to 5.5 in all other formations, per Sports Info Solutions.
Although Indiana’s run defense has been strong against all types of schemes, it has been slightly less dominant against these heavier formations:
- Against 12 and 21 personnel: 3.4 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 18th
- Against all others: 3.2 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 5th
As for the passing game, protecting Dante Moore will be critical if Oregon is to improve upon its production from the previous matchup.
Indiana generated a 50% pressure rate against the Ducks last time, the highest rate Oregon had allowed since a 2020 game against UCLA.
However, these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions indicate it should be a fair fight in the trenches:
- Oregon: ranked 6th in pressure rate allowed
- Indiana: ranked 13th in pressure rate generated
The biggest concern for Indiana is its depth.
The Hoosiers will be without edge rusher Stephen Daley, who was lost to an injury during the Big Ten title game
Daley had begun the year as part of the defensive line rotation, but stepped into a starting role when Kellan Wyatt was lost for the year in October.
Both Daley and Wyatt were active when these teams met in Week 7, combining for 7 pressures and 1.5 sacks.
Daley’s absence in the Rose Bowl mostly went unnoticed due to Indiana’s dominance of Alabama, but the Hoosiers’ pass-rush production dropped significantly.
Indiana generated a decent 34% pressure rate on the day, but much of that production came late after Alabama backup Austin Mack was forced into the game.
Before his injury, Ty Simpson had faced pressure on just 21% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate Indiana generated against an individual quarterback this season (minimum 10 dropbacks), per Sports Info Solutions.
It should also be noted that Alabama was not known for its pass protection this season 一 Simpson ranked 60th in pressure rate faced at 33% 一 so a mediocre performance by the Hoosiers’ pass-rush unit is tough to explain beyond Daley’s absence.
If Moore can spend more time in the pocket, it should help open up Oregon’s downfield passing attack, which struggled in the previous matchup.
In October’s meeting, Moore was just 4 for 11 on throws of 10 or more yards downfield, his lowest completion rate of the year at that depth.
However, he was under pressure on 8 of those attempts.
For the year, only 28% of Moore’s throws at that depth have been under pressure, and he’s completing 64% of those attempts, the nation’s second-highest rate.
Indiana’s potential dropoff in pass rush is especially noteworthy because if the Hoosiers' defense has a weakness, it’s the secondary.
Check out Indiana’s completion rate allowed when failing to generate pressure, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Overall: 71%, ranked 95th
- 10 or more yards downfield: 49%, ranked 57th
- 15 or more yards downfield, 46%, ranked 80th
This flaw has gone unnoticed due to its dominant pass rush unit 一 45% of attempts at 15 or more yards downfield against Indiana have been under pressure, the seventh-highest rate.
If Indiana can’t consistently get to Moore, however, the secondary might not hold up in this matchup.
There’s a chance Indiana increases its blitz rate to make up for the absences of Daley and Wyatt, but Moore has excelled at reacting to the blitz this season.
In the first matchup, Moore was 6 for 10 for 100 yards and a touchdown against Indiana’s blitz.
Only 1 of the 6 sacks occurred when the Hoosiers brought extra pressure.
On the season, Moore is completing 70% of his passes against the blitz (ranked 13th) for 9.2 yards per attempt (ranked 11th).
One area where Indiana may still hold an edge is in the red zone.
The Hoosier defense leads the nation in red zone touchdown rate allowed (26%). Oregon’s offense ranks 47th.
So Moore might have more success moving the Ducks up and down the field, but if Indiana can force Oregon to settle for field goals (or failed fourth-down attempts), the Hoosiers can still win this game.
When Indiana is on Offense
Indiana runs a balanced offense heavily featuring RPOs under coordinator Mike Shanahan, who has been Curt Cignetti’s play-caller since the 2021 season at James Madison.
In the first meeting, however, Indiana came out of the gate throwing the ball at a high rate.
In the first half, Hoosier running backs took just eight handoffs compared to 18 dropbacks by Fernando Mendoza.
If the Hoosiers take a similar approach, they will need their pass protection unit to step up, though Oregon appears to hold a slight advantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Indiana: 20th in pressure rate allowed
- Oregon: ranked 5th in pressure rate generated
That said, Indiana relies heavily on quick dropbacks, and Mendoza’s ability to get the ball out quickly is a key factor in his ability to avoid pressure.
The Hoosier passing attack uses quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) 47% of the time, the nation’s 20th-highest rate.
Oregon defends these quick dropbacks well, ranking third in the nation in yards per attempt allowed against quick dropbacks (4.2).
So it should come as no surprise that Mendoza’s numbers on these plays were muted in the first meeting.
Check out Mendoza’s stats on quick dropbacks this season, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Against Oregon: 67% completion rate, 5.5 yards per attempt
- Against others: 72% completion rate, 6.8 yards per attempt
So long as Indiana plays with a lead 一 it never trailed in the second half in the first matchup 一 this quick passing attack should remain effective, even if it limits the Hoosiers' big-play ability.
If Indiana falls behind, however, Mendoza might be in trouble.
To attack downfield, Mendoza needs to take more traditional dropbacks, which was an issue in the first matchup.
On traditional dropbacks, Mendoza was just 4 for 8 for 64 yards with an interception while facing pressure 8 times (72% pressure rate) and scrambling twice.
Calling traditional dropback plays has been both risky and rewarding for Shanahan’s offense, and, since the Hoosiers have rarely trailed this season, he has mostly been able to remain cautious when needed.
On traditional dropbacks, Mendoza averages 12.1 yards per attempt, ranked second in the nation.
However, he has also faced a 39% pressure rate, and when pressured on a traditional dropback, Mendoza takes a sack 25% of the time, ranked 118th.
So while Mendoza has mastered Indiana’s quick passing attack, his production when taking his time in the pocket has been more hit-or-miss, and this could be a critical factor if the Hoosiers find themselves playing from behind at some point.
In the run game, Indiana found it difficult to move the ball against Oregon’s front.
Its running backs gained just 3.9 yards per attempt.
This was a recurring theme for the Hoosiers against the best run defenses they faced, as their running backs were held to 4.2 yards per attempt or worse against Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Wisconsin.
Since the Hoosiers did not dominate on the ground against any of the quality run defenses they faced, we should assume it remains a struggle for Indiana to move the ball on the ground.
As a result, Oregon likely forces a pass-heavy game play again 一 at least until they build a lead, as they did in the first matchup.
Despite the expected mediocre results on the ground, it is worth noting that Oregon struggles to create negative plays against the run.
The Ducks have stopped opposing running backs for zero or negative yards just 15% of the time this year, ranked 88th.
This trend was a factor in the first meeting, as Oregon struggled to get Indiana off the field late in the game.
In the fourth quarter, Indiana running backs didn’t have a run longer than seven yards, but 8 of their 11 carries gained at least three yards.
The Hoosiers' ability to consistently keep moving forward on early downs allowed them to avoid obvious passing situations, where the Ducks could more easily get them off the field.
So while there are reasons to be concerned about Indiana’s offense if it falls behind, if it can gain an early lead, there's reason to be optimistic about its ability to run the ball and bleed the clock again.
Final Thoughts on Indiana vs. Oregon Best Bets
This game was a toss-up the first time around, so the smart bet is to take the points and play Oregon against the spread.
Indiana’s depleted pass rush is the biggest factor that could alter the way this game is played from October’s meeting, so the Ducks look like the best bet while they’re getting more than a field goal against the spread.