This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a critical Big Ten showdown between Oregon and Penn State.
Penn State vs. Oregon, current line:
Oregon at Penn State Best Bet Prediction:
It’s not easy to take on Penn State in a whiteout, but Dan Lanning’s Ducks have played plenty of big games in recent years 一 take Oregon against the spread.
- Oregon vs. Penn State, current line: Oregon +3.5
» Bet it now: Oregon +3.5 points
When Oregon is on Offense
The Oregon offense is run by third-year coordinator Will Stein, who has taken the scheme in a new direction with Dante Moore at quarterback.
After leaning on veterans Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel in his first two years as Ducks play caller, Stein has become more conservative this season with the redshirt-sophomore Moore.
Take a look at Oregon’s pass rate over expected during Stein’s three seasons based on situational data from Campus2Canton:
- 2023 with Nix: 11.7% above expected
- 2024 with Gabriel: 7.8% above expected
- 2025 with Moore: -0.4% below expected
You might theorize that Moore’s running ability is a factor here, but Moore only has 13 carries (excluding sacks) through four games.
His 3.3 attempts per contest is actually below Gabriel’s 3.8 last season.
This situational data accounts for lopsided scores, so Oregon’s blowout wins can’t fully explain the drop in pass rate, either.
However, Stein may have intentionally held something back on offense in anticipation of this matchup against Penn State.
Despite the dropoff in usage, Oregon’s passing attack has been among the most dangerous in the country, generating 20 or more yards on 18.7% of attempts, the nation’s seventh-highest rate.
For Penn State to disrupt the Ducks’ passing attack, it will need to get pressure on Moore.
Oregon’s offensive line is playing well, but it returned just two starters from a season ago and is relying on transfers from Nevada, Texas State, and USC.
So for two of those starters, navigating the environment in Happy Valley will be a new experience.
Penn State had one of the nation’s best pass-rush units in 2024, ranking fourth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, per Sports Info Solutions.
Although neither unit has been tested this season, early numbers suggest Penn State might have an edge in the pass protection battle:
- Oregon: ranked 28th in pressure rate allowed
- Penn State: ranked third in pressure rate generated
One potential advantage Penn State has is defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ experience against the Ducks offense, as he faced it twice last year in the same role at Ohio State.
Although Knowles tends to use the blitz at a league-average rate, he scaled back his blitz usage last season against the Ducks.
In the regular season matchup, Ohio State blitzed 25% of the time and followed that up with a 5.7% blitz rate in the Rose Bowl, per Sports Info Solutions.
Knowles' strategy was likely related to the Ducks’ tendency to attack underneath 一 dropping more in coverage allowed the defense to keep plays in front of them.
Outside the red zone, Oregon threw 15 or more yards downfield just 19% of the time. That rate has held steady this year at 18%.
Fortunately for Knowles, he appears to have a pass rush unit that can produce without the blitz.
When bringing four or fewer pass rushers, Penn State has still produced a 49% pressure rate, the nation’s third-best mark.
Unfortunately for Knowles, he doesn’t have safeties like Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom and Penn State.
On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Penn State is allowing 7.0 yards per completion, ranked 85th, which is slightly worse than their 6.5 mark a season ago.
The Nittany Lions are still sorting things out in the secondary as King Mack, Dejuan Lane, and Antoine Belgrave-Shorter have been battling for the strong safety job opposite returning starter at free safety Zakee Wheatley.
Penn State’s secondary is also struggling to locate and play the ball, generating a 9.3% ball-hawk rate, ranked 100th.
The biggest question facing this Penn State defense, however, isn’t the secondary.
Penn State’s biggest question mark is its ability to defend the run against a spread offense.
The Nittany Lions rank 33rd in rushing defense this year and ranked ninth a season ago, but have been exploited by spread offenses that excel at creating light boxes.
In 2024, Penn State allowed 6.2 yards per attempt when in a light box, ranked 106th per Sports Info Solutions.
That rate has improved this year (4.3 yards per attempt), but it’s hard to trust the improvement given the level of competition.
This trend could have a significant impact on this game as Oregon has utilized more spread formations this season.
In 2024, Oregon ran the ball from 12 personnel 39% of the time, but they have dropped that rate to just 23% through four games this year, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Take a look at how that has affected the rate at which Duck running backs have faced a stacked box:
- 2024: 61%
- 2025: 39%
Although Penn State hasn’t really been tested yet, it’s worth noting that FIU already successfully exploited this weakness, as its running backs picked up 92 yards on 15 carries against a light box (6.1 yards per attempt).
So while Oregon may have been holding back its passing attack in the early weeks of the season, sticking with a run-heavy game plan in this matchup might not be such a bad idea.
When Penn State is on Offense
Penn State will likely run a balanced offense under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who is in his second year at the program after previously reviving Kansas’ offense in the same role.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, Penn State’s pass rate has been 8.1% above expected this season, a significant leap from its 0.1% above expected rate in 2024.
Despite the early trend, it’s probably best to bet on Penn State leaning heavily on the run game in this matchup given Koteknick’s history and the presence of ball carriers Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
That said, Drew Allar will need to step up if Penn State is to keep pace with the Oregon offense, something which he was unable to do in the Big Ten title game last year.
Penn State was relatively competitive in the game, but Allar was just 6 for 17 on throws of 10 or more yards, including 2 interceptions.
Allar completed 50% of his throws at 10 or more yards downfield last year and is 10 for 20 on those throws against FBS competition in 2025.
However, Allar’s 2024 on-target rate at that depth (55%) only ranked 88th and helps explain why he has flopped against tougher competition when fewer receivers were running free.
Take a look at Allar’s performance in big games last year on throws of 10 or more yards:
- vs. Ohio State: 3-9
- vs. Oregon: 6-17
- vs. SMU: 2-5
- vs. Boise State: 5-13
- vs. Notre Dame: 1-4
That’s a combined 35% downfield completion rate in those contests.
Fortunately for Allar, Penn State might have the edge in the trenches needed to win the pass protection battle.
Take a look at how Penn State’s offensive line stacks up with Oregon’s pass rush based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Penn State: ranked third in pressure rate allowed
- Oregon: ranked 54th in pressure rate generated
Oregon’s defense lost three of its top five leaders in pressures from a season ago, most notably Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch, and the losses may have hurt the Ducks’ pass-rush depth.
However, those numbers could be skewed by garbage time.
If we look only at the first half of games, here’s how the two units stack up:
- Penn State: ranked second in pressure rate allowed
- Oregon: ranked 18th in pressure rate generated
It’s also worth pointing out the Penn State offensive line’s tendency to dominate lesser competition while folding against quality opponents.
In 2024, Penn State allowed a 42% pressure rate against Oregon and Ohio State while limiting the rest of its Big Ten competition to a 24% pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
In the run game, Penn State is expected to dominate this season, but that hasn’t exactly been the case so far.
The Nittany Lions' offensive line has struggled with consistency, and Penn State running backs are averaging just 1.6 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 91st.
One of the issues here is that Penn State tends to line up in heavier formations, allowing defenses to stack the box 一 and Allar’s inability to consistently threaten defenses downfield doesn’t help.
Penn State running backs have faced a stacked box on 62% of attempts this year, the 20th-highest rate per Sports Info Solutions.
Last season, Oregon’s defense struggled to defend the run with a stacked box against more physical teams, and it’s the primary reason Penn State was competitive in the Big Ten title game.
Singleton and Allen combined for 229 yards on just 24 carries in that contest.
Take a look at Oregon’s 2024 numbers with a stacked box:
- 2.3 yards before contact per attempt allowed, ranked 114th
- 5.1 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 104th
So far this year, things are looking up as the Ducks are allowing 1.3 yards before contact (ranked 42nd) and 3.2 yards per attempt (ranked 30th) with a stacked box, according to Sports Info Solutions.
And while the Ducks haven’t really been tested, they have played two power conference opponents (Oklahoma State, Northwestern) and Oregon State, so it’s not as though Oregon has piled up these stats against lower-tier groups of five schools.
Final Thoughts on Penn State vs. Oregon Best Bets
Trust the better coaching staff and take Oregon against the spread.
James Franklin hasn’t lost as a home favorite of a touchdown or less since his first year in Happy Valley in 2014.
However, his victories in this scenario came against Minnesota, Auburn, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana 一 that’s not exactly the same as taking care of business as Oregon.
A more appropriate way of looking at this might be with Franklin’s performance against good teams.
Franklin is 4-22 against teams that finished the season ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll.
Dan Lanning is 4-5, matching Franklin’s win total despite giving Franklin an 11-year head start.