This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s break down the Orange Bowl matchup between Oregon and Texas Tech.
Oregon vs. Texas Tech, current line:
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Best Bet Prediction:
Trust the more experienced coaching staff and the better quarterback and take Oregon against the spread.
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech, best line: Oregon -2
» Bet it now at Novig: Oregon -2.5 points
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon runs a balanced offense under coordinator Will Stein, which should help against this Texas Tech defense, which has dominated one-dimensional teams.
Let’s start by checking out the pass-protection battle, which has been an area Texas Tech has dominated this season.
Here are the opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 5th in pressure rate allowed
- Texas Tech: ranked 13th in pressure rate generated
It has been tough to consistently throw the ball against Texas Tech this season, but Oregon will be the first team the Red Raiders have faced with a dominant offensive line and a dangerous passer at quarterback.
The only team Texas Tech has faced that ranked in the top 50 of opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed is Utah.
However, Utah quarterback Devon Dampier is not much of a passer and certainly can’t threaten defenses downfield like Dante Moore.
Texas Tech generated a season-low 25% pressure rate against Utah, but Dampier couldn’t take advantage of the opportunities.
In a clean pocket, Dampier ranks 87th in yards per attempt. Moore ranks 21st.
Texas Tech also, somewhat surprisingly, struggled to get to Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, generating a 31% pressure rate, its second lowest of the season.
Leavitt was the best passer the Red Raiders faced this season (by a considerable margin), and he was the only quarterback to throw for 300 yards against them while also leading his Sun Devils to victory.
Winning the pass protection battle will be critical to Oregon’s success because the Ducks like to attack downfield.
Outside the red zone, 26% of the Ducks’ attempts have been 15 or more yards downfield (ranked 30th), while Moore has completed 60% of those throws (ranked 3rd), per Sports Info Solutions.
Looking back at those games where Texas Tech failed to generate pressure at an elite rate might tell us something about how these trends impact this game.
As previously mentioned, Utah’s Damper can’t throw. He was 0 for 7 with every pass being judged off-target by Sports Info Solutions.
However, Leavitt was 5 for 10 on throws 15 or more yards downfield against the Red Raiders, the most completions they allowed at that depth all year.
Over the course of the year, Texas Tech only faced three quarterbacks ranked in the top 50 in catchable pass rate at 15 or more yards downfield (Leavitt, Kansas’ Jalon Daniels, and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson).
Those three quarterbacks were 11 for 21 (52%) on throws of 15 or more yards against the Red Raiders.
Everyone else was 14 for 55 (25%).
So while Texas Tech’s defense is clearly talented, it’s fair to wonder if some of its dominance in the passing game was a product of the schedule.
The battle in the run game also looks like a competitive matchup, and it’s easier to buy into Texas Tech’s success given the quality rushing attacks it has handled.
Check out the opponent-adjusted numbers in the run game via Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 8th in yards before contact
- Texas Tech: ranked 7th in yards before contact allowed
- Oregon: ranked 7th in yards after contact
- Texas Tech: ranked 2nd in yards after contact allowed
Oregon uses a balanced attack in the run game in terms of formations, giving it the flexibility to adjust to the strengths and weaknesses of the defense.
That flexibility likely doesn’t matter against the Red Raiders, who thrive against the spread and more traditional schemes.
Take a look at Texas Tech’s numbers allowed to running backs based on box type, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Stacked box: 2.2 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 1st
- Light box: 4.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 15th
The Red Raiders thrive at getting into the backfield, generating contact before the ball carrier crosses the line of scrimmage 48% of the time (ranked 16th).
And they tend to capitalize on those opportunities as well, turning that early contact into gains of zero or negative yards at the nation’s 24th-highest rate.
So this could be a game where Oregon struggles to get the ground game going and needs to lean on Moore’s arm.
When Texas Tech is on Offense
Texas Tech runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Mack Leftwich, who is in his first year with the program.
The 31-year-old Leftwich is a rising star in the coaching ranks, but will be coaching in the biggest game of his career after previously spending his career at Texas State and Incarnate Word.
Although Leftwich is inexperienced, his scheme has been critical to Texas Tech overcoming mediocre play from quarterback Behren Morton.
Texas Tech uses quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks or RPOs) at the nation’s 14th-highest rate (50%), which naturally limits pressure.
As a result, Texas Tech ranks 13th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and should be able to neutralize Oregon’s pass rush, which ranks fourth by the same metric according to Sports Info Solutions.
However, the Ducks lack a game-wrecker on the pass-rush unit and therefore only rank 54th in pressure rate generated against quick dropbacks.
Despite the potential lack of pressure, Oregon’s athletes in the secondary can still limit Texas Tech’s quick passing attack.
Against quick dropbacks, Oregon is allowing just 4.2 yards per attempt, the nation’s third-lowest rate.
Since Morton tends to get the ball out quickly, 55% of the Red Raiders' passes have been five or fewer yards downfield, the 13th-highest rate.
Texas Tech lacks an elite weapon who thrives on those short throws, but the Red Raiders make up for it with depth.
Six players have at least 20 receptions on throws five or fewer yards downfield, and no one has more than 31 (tight end Terrance Carter Jr.).
So while no one particularly scares the defense, it’s also hard to draw up a game plan because there isn’t one player who clearly deserves more attention than the others.
Texas Tech can lean on this scheme so long as the game is close, but if it falls behind, Morton will need to spend more time in the pocket to attack downfield, and that’s where things could go sideways on the Red Raiders.
Against traditional dropbacks, which are typically needed to attack downfield, Oregon generates a 50% pressure rate (ranked 13th), per Sports Info Solutions.
The matchup in the run game looks worse for Texas Tech, but there’s still some hope when digging deeper into the numbers.
Check out the opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas Tech: ranked 55th in yards before contact
- Oregon: ranked 29th in yards before contact allowed
- Texas Tech: ranked 48th in yards after contact
- Oregon: ranked 22nd in yards after contact allowed
Those numbers don’t look great, but Oregon’s greatest weakness in the run is getting into the backfield and producing negative plays.
The Ducks contact the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage just 41% of the time (ranked 73rd) and only bring the ball carrier down for zero or negative yards on 35% of those opportunities (ranked 106th).
These are critical numbers because avoiding negative plays in the run game is Texas Tech’s greatest weakness on offense.
When Texas Tech running backs have been hit in the backfield, they’ve gone down without gaining positive yardage 46% of the time (ranked 112th).
Due to those issues, the Red Raiders have found themselves in third-and-long situations 24% of the time (ranked 86th).
So if Oregon can’t get into the backfield to create those negative plays and force tough down-and-distance situations, that means more snaps on which Texas Tech can avoid needing traditional dropbacks on obvious passing downs.
There’s still more good news for Texas Tech, as Oregon’s defense might also erase one of the most glaring flaws the Red Raiders have shown this year.
Texas Tech can’t score in the red zone.
The Red Raiders have scored a touchdown on just 56% of their red zone trips (ranked 96th).
That’s a troubling statistic for a team hoping to make a deep playoff run, but it’s even worse on the other side of the ball as Oregon’s defense ranks 120th in red zone touchdown rate allowed.
That said, put a small asterisk on Oregon’s number.
The Ducks have only allowed 30 red zone trips all year 一 only eight teams have allowed fewer 一 so small sample size caveats apply.
Final Thoughts on Texas Tech vs. Oregon Best Bets
This is a fascinating matchup of strengths and weaknesses, but in an expected tight game, it makes sense to go with the better quarterback and the more experienced coaching staff, so take Oregon against the spread.
If this game comes down to the wire and someone needs to make a big play, my money is on Moore being that guy.