This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Time to dive into a battle between ranked Big 12 teams as Texas Tech pays a visit to Utah at 10 a.m. local time on Saturday morning.
Texas Tech vs. Utah, current line:
Texas Tech at Utah Best Bet Prediction:
Trust the home field advantage in Salt Lake City and take Utah against the spread, but be sure to shop around for the best line as it's been fluctuating this week, both above and below a field goal.
- Texas Tech vs Utah, current line: Utah -2.5
» Bet it now: Utah -2.5 points
When Texas Tech is on Offense
Texas Tech runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Mack Leftwich, who joined the team this offseason after spending the previous two years calling plays at Texas State.
According to Campus2Canton, the Red Raiders have thrown the ball at a rate 11% above expected based on situational data.
That’s a significant jump from Leftwich’s trends in the past, as his offenses were more balanced during his two years with the Bobcats.
The shift to a more pass-heavy offense could be due to a preseason ACL injury to starting running back Quinten Joyner, a transfer from USC.
However, Leftwich also has a strong track record with the passing game and developing quarterbacks 一 he was Cam Ward’s quarterback coach at Incarnate Word.
Another feature of Leftwich’s offense is the fast pace.
The Red Raiders rank fifth in the country in pace of play this season.
One of the reasons Texas Tech’s offense seems to have clicked immediately under Leftwich could be the team’s prior experience moving at a fast pace in Zach Kittley’s air raid offense last year, when the Red Raiders also ranked in the top 10 in pace of play.
The most dramatic difference between Kittley (now the head coach at FAU) and Leftwich, has been the rate at which their quarterbacks attack downfield.
Take a look at Texas Tech’s percentage of throws at 15 or more yards downfield when outside the red zone last year and this season, according to Sports Info Solutions:
- 2024: 19.9%, ranked 110th
- 2025: 32.4% ranked 13th
Quarterback Behren Morton, a fifth-year senior, has been brilliant as a downfield passer, completing 55% of his throws at that depth against Kent State and Oregon State, though the defensive competition gets more challenging this week.
Unfortunately for Utah, injuries could play a role in their ability to defend the pass. Starting strong safety Rabbit Evans underwent season-ending surgery this past week.
Evans and Tao Johnson were previously one of the nation’s best duos at safety.
Utah has had no issues defending downfield thus far, allowing Wyoming and UCLA to complete just 1 of 8 throws at 15 or more yards downfield outside the red zone.
However, Wyoming ranked 107th in passing offense a season ago, and 0-3 UCLA might be the worst power conference team in the country.
So don’t put too much faith in a banged-up Utah secondary just yet, especially after it ranked just 52nd in downfield completion rate allowed a season ago.
For Texas Tech to continue its offensive dominance against Utah, the Red Raiders must protect Morton.
Take a look at Morton’s passing on throws 10 or more yards downfield from 2024 based on whether he was pressured:
- Clean pocket: 52% completion rate, ranked 51st
- Versus pressure: 29% completion rate, ranked 108th
This could be problematic against a dominant pass-rush unit.
Check out how these teams stacked up last year based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas Tech: ranked 44th in pressure rate allowed
- Utah: ranked fifth in pressure rate generated
The Utes lost five of their seven pass rushers who generated double-digit pressures a season ago to the NFL or the portal, but the unit has not missed a beat.
Against FBS opponents, Utah has generated an impressive 41% pressure rate.
Texas Tech’s offensive line might be vulnerable if last week’s performance against Oregon State is an indication of what’s to come.
Oregon State ranked 103rd in pressure rate generated a season ago, but they generated a 37% pressure rate against Morton.
This is where Leftwich’s new offense might actually hurt the Red Raiders, as it requires Morton to hold the ball longer, asking even more of a mediocre offensive line.
When facing pressure this season, Morton is completing just 38% of his passes at 6.6 yards per attempt, so finding ways to protect him will be critical.
Another factor in the pass protection battle is Utah’s blitz tendencies under coordinator Morgan Scalley.
Utah blitzed 36% of the time last year, the nation’s 13th-highest rate per Sports Info Solutions, and has already blitzed at a 40% rate this season.
The Red Raiders allowed a 38% pressure rate against the blitz last season (ranked 71st) and are matching that 38% rate so far this year (though that’s potentially an indication of a worse unit given the low level of competition).
If Texas Tech struggles to protect Morton, it could pivot to a more run-heavy approach 一 though it’s unclear if Leftwich trusts any of his healthy ball carriers.
Based on this 2024 opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Texas Tech would have had an edge on the ground if these teams met last year:
- Texas Tech: ranked 29th in yards before contact
- Utah: ranked 78th in yards before contact allowed
Utah’s problem last year was a boom-or-bust defensive front that ranked 10th in the country in contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage (48%) but also ranked 67th in its rate of allowing three or more untouched yards (29%).
Level of competition caveats apply, but check out Utah’s contact rate numbers against running backs this year:
- 0.7 yards before contact allowed, ranked ninth
- 17% of carries allowing three or more untouched yards, ranked 15th
Despite playing even worse competition, Texas Tech’s run game isn’t looking so hot:
- 1.9 yards before contact, ranked 69th
- 23% of carries producing three or more untouched yards, ranked 95th
So it does not appear as though the Red Raiders can count on the run game in this matchup, putting even more pressure on the offensive line to get the job done and protect Morton.
When Utah is on Offense
Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham finally pulled the plug on coordinator Andy Ludwig’s outdated power-run offense last season and brought in Jason Beck, who previously called plays for New Mexico.
The most noticeable change between the systems is that Beck has turned a painfully slow offense (ranked 126th in pace of play last year) into a normal one (ranked 50th this season).
There are some other small differences 一 Beck is using more motion, for example 一 but beyond that, it appears from the outside that Whittingham is still dictating a conservative, ball-control approach to play calling in the big picture.
For example, check out the rate at which Beck’s offense has lined up with two tight ends, according to Sports Info Solutions:
- 2024 at New Mexico: 33%
- 2025 at Utah: 67%
This particular shift hurts the run game, as it makes it easy for defenses to stack the box.
Beck’s running backs faced a stacked box 53% of the time last year at New Mexico, but that rate is up to 69% this season at Utah.
When facing a stacked box, Utah running backs haven’t fared well considering the level of competition 一 take a look at their numbers by box type:
- Light box: 7.6 yards per attempt, ranked 17th
- Stacked box: 4.2 yards per attempt, ranked 65th
The Red Raiders defense, which features eight transfers in critical roles, has been dominant against the run so far and is likely to give Utah some problems.
With a stacked box, Texas Tech has allowed an average of -0.1 yards before contact to running backs (ranked 11th) and 1.4 yards per attempt (ranked seventh) against FBS opponents.
Those numbers are obviously influenced by the level of competition, but when your average initial contact is occurring in the backfield, you’re doing something right regardless of the competition.
Even if Texas Tech can slow down Utah running backs Wayshawn Parker and NaQuari Rogers, that doesn't mean it will limit Utah’s run game overall due to the mobility of quarterback Devon Dampier.
Dampier followed Beck to Utah after leading the Lobos with 1,184 yards on the ground last season (excluding sacks).
The Red Raiders did not defend mobile passers well last year 一 ranked 91st in opponent-adjusted yards allowed to quarterbacks 一 but the portal additions plus new coordinator Shiel Wood might change that trend.
Wood spent last year at Houston and, while not much went right for the Cougars last year, his defense ranked 16th in opponent-adjusted yards allowed to quarterbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.
When Dampier drops back to pass, it will be strength versus strength in the trenches.
Utah has one of the nation’s best offensive line units, anchored by Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu.
Against its two FBS opponents, Utah has allowed a 17.6% pressure rate, the fourth lowest so far this year.
On the other side, Texas Tech spent a considerable amount of money to upgrade its pass-rush unit 一 most notably with David Bailey from Stanford 一 and it is paying off.
The Red Raiders have the fifth-highest pressure rate (48.1%) against FBS competition this season.
But this is also where Dampier’s mobility factors in.
In 2024, Dampier took a sack on just 5.8% of his dropbacks against pressure, the nation’s third-lowest rate and a stunning performance for a first-year starter.
Although he hasn’t faced much pressure yet at Utah 一 and likely won’t behind that offensive line 一 he took just one sack on 13 pressures against UCLA and Wyoming (7.7% sack rate), according to Sports Info Solutions.
There are some concerns for Utah’s passing attack, however, as Dampier is just 4 for 14 on throws 15 or more yards downfield, a dreadful 29% completion rate.
This was also an issue last year, as he completed 38% of his throws at that depth, ranked 96th per Sports Info Solutions.
If Utah falls behind, Dampier’s inability to attack downfield could be an issue.
Final Thoughts on Utah vs. Texas Tech Best Bets
This is a tough game to predict given the turnover on both rosters and the lack of competition faced so far, but let’s trust the home team and play Utah against the spread.
Utah’s ability to generate pressure with the use of Scalley’s creative blitzes could be the difference in this matchup.