This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into one of the playoff rematches and break down the matchup between Tulane and Ole Miss.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss, current line:
Tulane at Ole Miss Best Bet Prediction:
In the first meeting, Ole Miss had covered this spread by halftime and won by 35, so let’s bet on a similar outcome and take Ole Miss against the spread.
- Tulane vs. Ole Miss, best line: Ole Miss -17.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Ole Miss -17.5 points
When Tulane is on Offense
Tulane typically leans on a pass-heavy approach, although that game plan did not go well in the first meeting between these teams in September.
Quarterbacks Jake Retzlaff, who was benched during the game, and Brendan Sullivan were under pressure on a season-high 52% of their dropbacks.
We should probably expect a similar performance from the Ole Miss pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Tulane: ranked 78th in pressure rate allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 19th in pressure rate generated
Despite those numbers, Retzlaff will likely be more competitive in this contest, improving upon his 5 for 17 performance in the first game.
Retzlaff, a transfer from BYU, didn’t enroll at Tulane until late July, and it took some time to learn his new offense.
As a result, Retzlaff was primarily a running quarterback early this season.
Through his first four games at Tulane, he carried the ball 45 times, excluding sacks.
In 13 games at BYU in 2024, Retzlaff had just 80 carries, and finished with just 65 carries over his final nine games this season.
Now that Retzlaff is more comfortable in the offense, he’s likely to handle Ole Miss’ pressure more effectively.
For starters, no quarterback in this year’s playoff field is better at avoiding sacks.
Retzlaff’s 6.5% sack rate versus pressure is the sixth lowest in college football.
Unfortunately for Tulane, the Ole Miss defense is still probably built to limit the Green Wave’s passing attack.
Tulane uses a relatively pro-style offense in which Retzlaff takes a traditional dropback 59% of the time (ranked 32nd) and a quick dropback only 28% of the time (ranked 109th).
So let’s look at Ole Miss’ defensive ranks by dropback type, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Traditional dropbacks: ranked 11th in yards per attempt allowed
- Quick dropbacks: ranked 50th in yards per attempt allowed
Even if Tulane shifted its approach to use more quick dropbacks, it might not have much success against the Ole Miss defense.
Tulane only ranks 55th in yards per attempt on quick dropbacks (6.9), due to a lack of weapons who thrive after the catch.
The Green Wave’s primary weapon on quick dropbacks, Shazz Preston, only ranked 18th out of 30 qualified American Conference receivers in yards per reception on those plays.
One of the reasons why Retzlaff takes traditional dropbacks at a high rate is due to Tulane’s desire to attack downfield.
Outside the red zone, 26% of the Green Wave’s pass attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, the 27th-highest rate in the FBS.
This is also a problematic approach when facing Ole Miss, which has allowed the sixth-lowest completion rate at that depth (29.6%).
Tulane might have a better chance to be competitive against a shaky Ole Miss run defense.
Check out these key opponent-adjusted numbers on the run game, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Tulane: ranked 94th in yards before contact
- Ole Miss: ranked 118th in yards before contact allowed
- Tulane: ranked 74th in yards after contact
- Ole Miss: ranked 59th in yards after contact allowed
Ole Miss’ issue against the run is giving up untouched yardage, as it allows three or more yards before contact to running backs on 29% of attempts (ranked 94th).
Fortunately for Ole Miss, the second level tends to clean up those mistakes, and it has only allowed 10 or more untouched yards eight times all year.
That means big plays on the ground are less likely, but it does leave the door open for Tulane to piece together some longer drives, which could limit possessions and help shorten the game.
Another red flag that needs to be addressed is Tulane’s discipline problem.
The Green Wave have racked up an average of 65.9 penalty yards per game, ranked 124th.
Tulane also ranks 99th in red zone touchdown rate (56%).
It’s hard to pull off an upset when you’re prone to stubbing your toe in so many ways.
When Ole Miss is on Offense
Ole Miss runs a pass-heavy, spread offense that was primarily designed by Lane Kiffin, who is now at LSU, but coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. remains with the team and was heavily involved in play-calling the past few seasons.
For Tulane to slow down Ole Miss’ passing attack, it will need to get pressure on Trinidad Chambliss, which might be possible based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ole Miss: ranked 10th in pressure rate allowed
- Tulane: ranked 9th in pressure rate generated
However, Ole Miss runs a fast-paced offense that focuses on getting the ball out quickly and letting its receivers make plays after the catch.
Ole Miss uses quick dropbacks 56% of the time (ranked 6th in the FBS) while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt on those plays (ranked 4th).
That’s a problematic trend for Tulane, which is allowing 6.9 yards per attempt against quick dropbacks (ranked 87th).
In the first meeting, Ole Miss averaged 7.7 yards per attempt on quick dropbacks, though Tulane did record 1 sack on those plays.
Although Ole Miss gets rid of the ball quickly and likes to attack shorter routes, it still attacks downfield at a high rate to keep defenses honest.
Outside the red zone, 27% of Ole Miss’ throws have been at least 15 yards downfield, and Chambliss has completed 48% of those throws (ranked 29th).
This is another concerning trend for the Green Wave, who are allowing a 42% completion rate at that depth (ranked 70th).
Things don’t look any more promising for Tulane’s defense in the run game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ole Miss: ranked 43rd in yards before contact
- Tulane: ranked 14th in yards before contact allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 40th in yards after contact
- Tulane: ranked 75th in yards after contact allowed
Although the Green Wave makes early contact at a relatively high rate, they struggle to bring down the ball carrier in the backfield.
When Tulane makes contact at or behind the line of scrimmage, it only stops the running back for zero or negative yards on 36% of those plays, ranked 99th.
This is a contributing factor to one of the most concerning big-picture stats for Tulane’s defense: the Green Wave ranks 120th in third-and-long force rate.
Only 18% of opponents' sets of downs result in a third-and-long situation against the Green Wave.
That’s especially problematic against Ole Miss, which ranks 13th in third-and-long avoidance and also ranks 24th in third-and-long conversion rate.
In the first meeting, Ole Miss converted 7 of 11 third-down attempts, in large part because only one was a third-and-long situation (an incomplete pass on third and eight).
If Tulane can’t force Ole Miss into tough down-and-distance situations, it’s going to be tough to get off the field.
Final Thoughts on Ole Miss vs. Tulane Best Bets
There was nothing fluky about the outcome of the first meeting between these teams, so let’s take Ole Miss against the spread.
The departure of Kiffin might have an impact in a more competitive game, but since Ole Miss holds a clear edge in both the pass and run games, it’s hard to imagine that Kiffin's lack of input on play calling will have a noticeable effect against Tulane.