This season I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this week’s College Game Day matchup between UCLA and Oregon, as Chip Kelly looks to upset his former squad in Eugene.
UCLA vs Oregon Spread, current line:
UCLA vs Oregon Best Bet Prediction:
I like two bets in this matchup: take the points and bet UCLA against the spread and take the over on UCLA’s team total at 32.5 points. However, there’s a high probability of rain in Eugene on Saturday. I'm going to wait until game day to see just how bad the weather looks before betting on UCLA’s team total.
When UCLA is on Offense
It’s taken some time for Dorian Thompson-Robinson to develop as a passer, but he’s now earned the trust of the coaching staff and UCLA has become a more pass-heavy offense.
In neutral game situations, UCLA throws the ball 55% of the time, a massive increase from its 36% rate a season ago, according to Campus2Canton.
As is standard for Chip Kelly’s offense, UCLA relies on a quick-strike passing attack. Thompson-Robinson ranks 95th in traditional dropback rate (dropbacks of three or more steps), per Sports Info Solutions.
Although Oregon has an average pass rush (ranked 58th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate), UCLA’s quick passing game likely negates the Ducks' ability to get to the quarterback.
On non-traditional dropbacks, Oregon ranks 101st in pressure rate (14.5%) and 63rd in yards per attempt allowed (6.9).
In part due to that quick passing attack, UCLA ranks 10th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed 一 so expect DTR to mostly operate without pressure in this matchup.
When DTR is not pressured, he averages 9.8 yards per attempt (ranked 11th out of 115 quarterbacks), per Sports Info Solutions.
In the run game, UCLA’s spread offense allows its ball carriers to run into light boxes on 62% of attempts. This could create issues for the Oregon defense, which ranks 50th in yards per attempt allowed with a light box (4.8), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Oregon’s defense also struggles to create negative plays in the run game, as the Ducks contact the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 36% of attempts, ranked 75th.
UCLA’s performance on third downs could be a deciding factor in this game. Consider these numbers:
- UCLA’s third-down conversion rate: 55%, ranked fourth
- Oregon’s third-down conversion rate allowed: 51%, ranked 129th
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon runs a fairly balanced offense with a 46% pass rate in neutral game situations, per Campus2Canton.
The Ducks rank third in the nation in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Oregon’s run game excels in large part due to an offensive line, which has helped the Ducks rank seventh in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact per attempt.
UCLA’s defense, however, is likely up for the challenge. The Bruins rank 17th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed.
Oregon has faced two teams ranked higher than UCLA by that metric, Georgia (fourth) and Washington State (15th). The Ducks were blown out by Georgia, and needed an incredible fourth-quarterback comeback to knock off the Cougars.
Led by Bo Nix, Oregon’s passing attack is relatively conservative. Nix has thrown 15 or more yards downfield on just 19% of his attempts, ranked 83rd, per Sports Info Solutions. As a result, Oregon ranks 60th in explosive pass rate, with just 11% of plays producing 20 or more yards.
UCLA’s defense ranks ninth in explosive pass rate allowed, so don’t expect many big plays from the Ducks’ offense in this matchup.
Where Nix excels is in limiting negative plays, even when facing pressure. Nix has produced -1 EPA or worse at the fourth lowest rate in the nation overall, and the fifth lowest rate when under pressure, per Sports Info Solutions.
Final Thoughts on UCLA vs Oregon Best Bets
Since the start of 2020, Chip Kelly is 3-1 against the spread with two outright wins as a road underdog. One of those covers was at Oregon in 2020, when the Bruins lost 38-35 as 18.5-point underdogs.
I like the Bruins against the spread, but if I only placed one bet on this matchup it would be the over on UCLA’s team total at 32.5 points (assuming the weather isn’t a complete mess).
UCLA’s offense appears to have an edge in every aspect of the game against the Ducks defense. Maybe Oregon can still cover, but it will be a shootout if they do.