This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out the Holy War, as BYU and Utah each enter this game in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2009.
Utah vs. BYU, current line:
Utah at BYU Best Bet Prediction:
This could be the moment BYU is exposed after going undefeated against the 84th-ranked strength of schedule 一 bet on Utah to cover the spread.
- Utah vs. BYU, best line: Utah -3
» Bet it now at Novig: Utah -3.5 points
When Utah is on Offense
As has always been the case under Kyle Whittingham, Utah features a run-heavy offense with first-year coordinator Jason Beck, but it’s a different scheme than we’ve seen from the Utes in recent years.
Whittingham finally moved on from former coordinator Andy Ludwig’s outdated scheme in favor of Beck’s more creative, fast-paced offense.
The most notable difference has been the pace at which Utah plays under Beck.
In 2024, the Utes ranked 126th in pace of play, but they have jumped to 44th this season.
The other noticeable change has been the use of quarterback Devon Dampier in the run game.
Dampier has already carried the ball 40 times on designed runs, per Sports Info Solutions.
Over the past decade, the only Utah quarterback with more designed runs than Dampier was Tyler Huntley in 2018, and that was only 47, a number that Dampier could surpass on Saturday.
Including all types of rush attempts (except sacks), Dampier is averaging 10.3 carries for 65.5 yards per game.
BYU’s defense has faced some athletic quarterbacks this year, most notably Colorado’s Kaidon Salter and West Virginia's Khalil Wilkins.
The Cougars contained Wilkins relatively well (23 carries for 89 yards), but that was the first career start for the redshirt freshman.
However, Salter gave BYU problems, picking up 84 yards on 14 carries, six of which produced first downs.
When Dampier isn't carrying the rock, running backs Wayshawn Parker and NaQuari Rogers are sharing the workload in a productive backfield.
It should be a good battle in the trenches, however, based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Utah: ranked eighth in yards before contact
- BYU: ranked ninth in yards before contact allowed
Fortunately for Utah, which primarily runs the ball from heavy formations that create stacked boxes, BYU has not defended the power run game as well.
Check out BYU’s run defense by box type:
- Stacked box: 4.4 yards per attempt, ranked 70th
- Light box: 3.7 yards per attempt, ranked 10th
Another factor in the run game that potentially swings this matchup in Utah’s favor is BYU’s issues reacting to pre-snap motion.
Utah uses motion on 44% of handoffs while gaining 6.3 yards per attempt on those plays (ranked 24th), per Sports Info Solutions.
That trend should worry the Cougars, who are allowing 6.0 yards per attempt on run plays with motion, ranked 107th.
Arizona successfully exploited this weakness last week, gaining 124 yards on 18 carries with motion before falling to the Cougars in double overtime.
As for the passing game, this is where Utah struggles.
In an early-season loss to Texas Tech, the Utes were competitive for three quarters 一 Utah trailed only 13-10 early in the fourth quarter.
However, once Texas Tech stretched the lead to double digits, it quickly snowballed on the Utes due to Dampier’s inability to throw downfield, resulting in a somewhat misleading 34-10 final score.
Dampier simply doesn’t have the arm to throw downfield, which puts the Utes in a tough spot when they need to be more aggressive.
On throws 15 or more yards downfield, Dampier is completing just 24% of his throws, ranked 132nd in the country.
Most of the incompletions are Dampier’s fault, as well.
His catchable pass rate at that depth (48%) ranks 133rd.
So long as Utah can control the game on the ground, this shouldn’t be an issue, but if BYU pulls ahead at any point, the Utes might be in trouble.
When BYU is on Offense
BYU traditionally leans on the run game under coordinator Aaron Roderick, and this year is no different.
According to Campus2Canton, the Cougars throw the ball at a rate 6.4% below expected, the second-lowest rate in the Big 12.
Although you might associate BYU with the power run game, that hasn’t been the case this season.
BYU running backs are only taking the ball between the tackles on 29% of their carries, the nation’s ninth-lowest rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
The strategy has worked moderately well, but Utah is likely up for the challenge based on these outside-the-tackles rushing numbers:
- BYU: 5.5 yards per attempt, ranked 55th
- Utah: 4.4 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 38th
If we look at the run game as a whole, through the lens of opponent-adjusted data, it tells a similar story with Utah coming out on top:
- BYU: ranked 44th in yards before contact
- Utah: ranked 28th in yards before contact allowed
If Utah gains a lead and BYU is forced to lean on quarterback Bear Bachmeier and the passing attack, that is where the Utes gain a clear advantage.
Fortunately for BYU, the pass protection battle looks relatively even, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- BYU: ranked 19th in pressure rate allowed
- Utah: ranked 13th in pressure rate generated.
However, BYU’s lack of a downfield passing attack is where the offense is severely lacking.
Outside the red zone, the Cougars are attempting 6.2 attempts per game at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 74th, while completing just 32% of those throws, ranked 115th.
Utah’s defense is allowing a 28% completion rate at that depth, the nation’s ninth-lowest rate.
Despite those numbers, BYU does have some sliver of hope in the passing game, as the Utes will be down to a third-stringer at one safety spot.
Utah has been without Rabbit Evans for most of the year, and they lost his replacement Nate Ritchie to injury two weeks ago.
Sophomore Jackson Bennee, who previously was seeing snaps in the nickel corner role, stepped into the starting free safety role last week.
The Utes pass defense suffered no ill effects last week, but Arizona State’s offense was overmatched with its backup quarterback filling in.
BYU’s issues in the pass game have created problems for the offense on third downs, as the Cougars only rank 47th in third-down conversion rate and 91st in third-and-long conversion rate.
Final Thoughts on BYU vs. Utah Best Bets
BYU tends to fall flat in big games, so let’s bet on Utah to cover the spread.
Under head coach Kalani Sitake, BYU is 5-19 against teams that finish the season ranked in the AP Top 25 一 a qualifier which is likely to include this Utah squad by season’s end.
The Cougars have played just one team (Arizona) with a winning record, and this could be the game that exposes them as a fraud.