This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a critical SEC showdown as Vanderbilt travels to Texas.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas, current line:
Vanderbilt at Texas Best Bet Prediction:
Clark Lea’s squad just keeps on rolling, so let’s take the points and bet Vanderbilt against the spread.
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas, best line: Vanderbilt +2.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Vanderbilt +2.5 points
When Vanderbilt is on Offense
Although Diego Pavia generates all the headlines, Vanderbilt’s offense is built around its rushing attack.
Vandy’s strategy, especially against quality opponents, is to run the ball in an effort to control the clock and shorten the game.
The strategy has resulted in the Commodores ranking 133rd in pace of play, allowing them to wear down defenses as the game progresses.
The reason the strategy works is Vanderbilt’s incredible offensive line, which has become arguably the best run-blocking unit in the nation.
Vandy uses a unique approach to offensive line play 一 I went into more detail on its strong-side/weak-side strategy last week 一 and it’s allowed the unit to dominate in the trenches.
Based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Vanderbilt running backs lead the nation in yards before contact per attempt.
In most matchups, that has given the Commodores a decided advantage in the ground game, but Texas might be up for the challenge.
Texas ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed 一 easily the best unit Vandy has faced to date.
Further complicating things for the Vandy offense in this matchup is its predictable scheme that allows opponents to stack the box at a high rate.
Vandy running backs have faced seven or more defenders in the box on 77% of carries, the nation’s fourth-highest rate per Sports Info Solutions.
So how has Vanderbilt generated such a strong rushing attack with such a predictable scheme?
Take a look at where Vandy’s power-conference opponents rank in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box:
- South Carolina: 78th
- Virginia Tech: 82nd
- Alabama: 88th
- Missouri: 91st
- LSU: 92nd
Even if you remove each team’s game against Vanderbilt from the equation, only Missouri’s rank jumps into the top 60.
Now look at Texas’ run defense with a stacked box, via data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Yards per attempt: 2.9, ranked 11th
- Early contact rate: 55%, ranked 18th
- Stuff rate: 28%, ranked 11th
This will certainly be a unique test for Vanderbilt’s rushing attack, but the Commodores might just be too dominant on the ground to be slowed down.
When running into a stacked box, Vandy running backs are averaging an absurd 7.3 yards per attempt, leading the nation.
To provide some context to that number, consider that during his remarkable 2024 campaign, Ashton Jeanty 一 primarily playing against Mountain West defenses 一 only averaged 6.2 yards per attempt into a stacked box.
If Texas’ run defense prevents Vandy from dominating on the ground, however, the edge in this matchup goes to the Longhorns due to Pavia’s struggles as a passer.
Although Pavia is a critical part of the Commodores offense due to his legs 一 he’s averaging 64.3 yards per game on the ground, excluding sacks 一 he doesn’t have the downfield passing tools to run the offense efficiently in obvious passing situations.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Pavia ranks 66th in completion rate per Sports Info Solutions, and 76th on throws of 15 or more yards.
It doesn’t help that Vandy’s offensive line is less effective in pass protection than the run game, and is likely at a disadvantage in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Vanderbilt: ranked 52nd in pressure rate allowed
- Texas: ranked 23rd in pressure rate generated
Pavia’s chaotic play is also a slight concern against a pass-rush unit like Texas, as he’s prone to mistakes under pressure.
As a quarterback always willing to chase the big play, Pavia generates an EPA of 1.0 or higher on 24% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 15th. That’s the good news.
However, he also generated -1.0 EPA or worse on 32% of dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 63rd.
A boom-or-bust quarterback is great for the entertainment factor, but this might be a challenging matchup against a disciplined Texas defense.
When Texas is on Offense
Texas has leaned on a slightly pass-heavy offense this year despite the struggles of Arch Manning.
According to Campus2Canton, the Longhorns throw the ball at a rate 3.5% above expected based on situational data.
It’s possible that approach could change this week, however, as Manning is in concussion protocol and his status is up in the air.
If Manning can’t suit up, his backup, Matthew Caldwell, would likely take over.
Caldwell is a redshirt-senior in his first year with the Longhorns, having previously played at Jacksonville State, Gardner-Webb, and Troy.
It’s difficult to imagine Steve Sarkisian trusting Caldwell, who began the 2024 season as the backup at Troy, to execute Texas’ typical game plan.
Unfortunately, Texas doesn’t have much of a rushing attack to pivot to, and might be at a disadvantage on the ground based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 92nd in yards before contact
- Vanderbilt: ranked 116th in yards before contract allowed
- Texas: ranked 89th in yards after contact
- Vanderbilt: ranked 20th in yards after contact allowed
Although Vanderbilt does not have an imposing run defense, it does appear to hold an edge against Sark’s spread offense, which typically creates light boxes.
Check out how these teams stack up with six or fewer defenders in the box, which accounts for 59% of Texas’ handoffs:
- Texas: 4.4 yards per attempt, ranked 104th
- Vanderbilt: 5.4 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 67th
If Texas does need to throw the ball with Caldwell, the Longhorns will need a conservative attack due to his issues as a downfield passer.
Last year at Troy, Caldwell’s 49% on-target rate on throws of 10 or more yards downfield ranked 130th.
Although the same can be said if Manning starts, as his 51% on-target rate doesn’t inspire confidence either.
Surprisingly, Texas has been an aggressive downfield passing team 一 perhaps showing a bit of Sark’s stubbornness as a play caller.
Outside the red zone, 30% of Texas’ pass attempts have been 15 or more yards downfield, the eighth-highest rate in the nation.
Questions about Caldwell and Manning aside, this is a viable approach to attacking Vandy’s defense.
The Commodores rank 119th in completion rate allowed at that depth (51%), which gives Texas some hope its aggressive downfield attack might work.
One of the reasons Texas’ commitment to the downfield attack has been so confusing is the Longhorns' struggling offensive line.
So let’s check out the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 113th in pressure rate allowed
- Vanderbilt: ranked 70th in pressure rate generated
Although neither unit is particularly strong, Vanderbilt likely has what it takes to disrupt the Longhorns’ predictable passing attack.
Manning has taken a traditional dropback 63% of the time, the 20th-highest rate in the nation, which invites more pressure.
So let’s take a look at Vandy’s pressure rate on traditional dropbacks versus quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs):
- Traditional dropbacks: 46%, ranked 35th
- Quick dropbacks: 21%, ranked 73rd
Vandy doesn’t have any edge rushers who can instantly blow up the play, which explains the poor production on quick dropbacks.
As a unit, however, the Commodores get after it and can likely be disruptive against Texas’ style of play.
If Caldwell starts, there’s a chance Texas could lean into more quick dropbacks 一 he took a quick dropback 44% of the time last year at Troy 一 but it would require a significant change in Sark’s approach.
Texas’ 19.9% quick-dropback rate ranks 123rd in the country, and on those plays, the Longhorns are only gaining 6.0 yards per attempt, ranked 91st.
Final Thoughts on Texas vs. Vanderbilt Best Bets
Texas might struggle to be competitive if Manning doesn’t suit up, but even if he’s back out there, this looks like a tough matchup for the Longhorns, so let’s take Vanderbilt against the spread.
The Longhorns struggled to sneak by Kentucky and Mississippi State on the road the last two weeks 一 two teams that are winless in the SEC play 一 so why should we trust them against a strong Vandy squad?
It helps Texas to be back at home, but Sark has not defended his home turf all that well over the years.
During Sark’s tenure at Texas, the Longhorns have been favored by 7.5 points or less at home six times, going 2-4 against the spread with three outright losses.