It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.
Want More Futures Recommendations? Warren Sharp has you covered.
Warren Sharp's futures package has compiled an 85-48 (64%) record on non-longshot props over the last seven years.
A $100 bettor is up $7,018 following Warren's futures since this package was created.
Use promo code: SAVE50 to get $50 off the already discounted price.
Click here to learn more about the 2025 NFL Futures Package!
While some might think fantasy football projections are just for those drafting teams this summer, they can be used as a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets, as well as in fantasy drafts.
The NFL season is full of chaos and injuries, but projections provide an estimate of median outcomes at player and team levels.
Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who are higher or lower than the current market and how to bet those situations.
Get Access to Rich Hribar's Projections in Our Sharp Football Draft Kit!
Up next: which quarterback prop bet OVERS are likely to hit in the 2025 NFL season?
Drake Maye Props: Why You Should Bet the Over
Current Over/Unders for Drake Maye:
- 3,250 Passing yards (-115) DraftKings
- 475.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings
Why You Should Bet the Over:
The arrow is pointing up for the Patriots in 2025.
No team has a larger increase in expected wins this season based on win totals.
In addition to significant upgrades to the coaching staff, Maye will take the field with an improved offensive line, two new receivers, and a rookie running back.
The additions of Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams bolster a wide receiver room that failed to produce a 700-yard option last season.
Diggs was on pace for a sixth consecutive 1,000-yard season before a season-ending ACL injury, but he is expected to be ready for Week 1.
A friendlier schedule awaits the Patriots, who are projected to have the second-easiest schedule this season including the seventh-easiest jump in opposing passing defenses from last season.
Based on Rich’s projections, Maye provides significant value in current DraftKings best ball drafts, where he is currently the 17th quarterback according to ADP.
Maye is currently ranked ninth in Sharp Fantasy Football Rankings while ranking 11th in projected points.
In the 10 full games Maye played last season, he averaged 36.3 rushing yards and 223 passing yards per game, which would project over 600 rushing yards and 3,700 passing yards in a full season.
In his last stint with the Patriots, OC Josh McDaniels orchestrated an offense around Cam Newton that maximized his rushing ability, and Newton scored 12 touchdowns on the ground while averaging just under 40 rushing yards per game.
Assuming the 2025 offense improves over the 2024 version, there is a buffer based on per game projections even if Maye suffers an injury.
There is optimism that Maye can take a big leap in his second season, which provides an opportunity in both fantasy and season long betting markets.
2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:
- Drake Maye Over 3,250 Passing Yards (-115) DK
- Drake Maye Over 475.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DK
2025 Drake Maye Long Shot Bet
- Over 4,000 Passing Yards (+390) FD
It is unlikely that the Patriots improve to have Maye in the MVP discussion.
However, there is a passing prop which is within the range of outcomes if Maye were to play all 17 games, and that is the young quarterback topping 4,000 yards through the air.
Dak Prescott Props: Why You Should Bet the Over
Current Over/Unders for Dak Prescott:
- 3,825 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel
Why You Should Bet the Over:
The Cowboys promoted OC Brian Schottenheimer to head coach, which could have a significant impact on the passing game.
In Schottenheimer's first season as offensive coordinator of the Cowboys, Prescott led the NFL in passing touchdowns.
The Cowboys made significant changes to the offense following a Week 7 bye that season.
From Week 8 onward, Prescott averaged 36 pass attempts and 289 passing yards per game.
The departure of Mike McCarthy and the addition of George Pickens could be a signal that the Cowboys will return to a pass happy offense similar to the one in late 2023.
After years of overpaying Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys enter their second consecutive season with minimal resources allocated to the running back position, which is another signal that the 2025 Cowboys are going to rely on Dak's arm.
The 2024 Cowboys defense allowed a bottom-five 5.8 yards per play, lost multiple pieces on defense, and is relying on Trevon Diggs returning from a significant injury, which could force the Cowboys into several shootouts.
Rich Hribar’s projections have Prescott projected for the 10th most quarterback fantasy points, and he is currently ranked 11th in the Sharp Fantasy Football Rankings.
Prescott is currently the 12th quarterback off the board in DraftKings best ball drafts and is a current value with potential upside at his current price.
The betting market is bearish on Prescott, who is coming off a season-ending hamstring injury.
A hint of recency bias can be considered when viewing Prescott as “injury prone.”
Prescott has played 16 or more games in six of his nine seasons.
Our projections have Prescott at a modest 267 passing yards per game, which provides a couple game injury buffer to reach his current season long passing total, which he has sailed over in his last three healthy seasons.
2025 Player Prop Bet Recommendation:
- Dak Prescott Over 3,825 Passing Yards (-114) FD
2025 Dak Prescott Long Shot Bet
- Dak Prescott Most Passing TDs (+1500) FD
Prescott is one season removed from leading the league in passing touchdowns, and the Cowboys have scored 65% of their touchdowns over the past two seasons through the air.