With the 2023 NFL draft fast approaching, it’s time to start taking a serious look at the betting markets.
In this article, I’ll be sharing some of my top recommendations for 2023 NFL draft prop bets.
Be sure to check back often as we’ll update when new props appear or new information changes our thinking.
NFL draft prop: Paris Johnson Jr.’s draft position under 9.5
It sounds as though Ohio State left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. has solidified himself as the top offensive lineman and is likely to ome off the board no later than the Chicago Bears selection at number nine, so take the under on his draft position at 9.5.
Paris Johnson Jr. betting analysis:
On Sunday afternoon we recommended taking Johnson to be selected third overall at +4000. By late Sunday night, that line had plummeted to +550, so unfortunately there’s not enough value there anymore.
In my most recent mock draft I connected the Arizona Cardinals to Johnson with the third pick. My logic was based on the disproportionate amount of time Arizona has spent visiting with the top offensive tackles in this class. And since Arizona is trying to trade down, it felt like a smart pairing as a possibility at number three or a few slots later after a trade.
Over the weekend, Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network added a new wrinkle to this equation, reporting that Arizona has received calls from teams looking to trade up for an offensive lineman.
This is much earlier than tackles are coming off the board in most mock drafts, so why would someone trade up for Johnson?
Although there are a few strong offensive line prospects likely to land in the first round, only Johnson and Broderick Jones are viewed as left tackles, and that scarcity increases their value.
Chicago at number nine might be Johnson’s floor, so his draft position prop is perfectly placed for us to take the under.
Since we’re expecting Stroud to come off the board early, it also makes sense to take the under on Broderick Jones‘s draft position at 13.5 (+150). Once Johnson is gone, another team is likely to quickly snatch up the only remaining left tackle. The New York Jets at 13 might be Jones’s floor.
NFL draft prop: C.J. Stroud to be the second quarterback selected
There’s been a lot of conversation about C.J. Stroud potentially falling in the draft, but there hasn’t been any concrete reporting behind this talk, so I would still bet on him coming off the board shortly after Bryce Young.
Released Last Week at -135 » Bet it now: +105
C.J. Stroud betting analysis:
I wrote about this in more detail on our NFL Draft News and Rumors page, but it’s suspicious that this talk would pop up right after Houston starts shopping the No. 2 pick. Everyone potentially in the market to acquire that pick now has incentive to downplay their interest in Stroud.
The quarterback props market has also been affected by Will Levis getting inserted into the conversation with Houston thanks to a recent mock draft from Lance Zierlein. However, Zierlein has said Levis is not an option with the second pick.
NFL draft prop: Anthony Richardson draft position over pick 4.5
Anthony Richardson’s status as a top-five pick is increasingly looking like a media creation. Bet on Richardson’s draft position over 4.5.
Released Two Weeks Ago at +100 » Bet it now: -320
Anthony Richardson draft position betting analysis:
This prop was +100 last week, so hopefully you got in early, but even at less favorable odds I’m on board.
According to Bob McGinn of GoLongTD.com, a scout recently had this to say about Richardson: “Florida had a bad season, and this guy was the reason they had a bad season.”
Another scout told McGinn: “His delivery is like he’s never thrown a football before.”
Put yourself in a general manager’s shoes. Would you bet your job on Richardson developing into a high-end starting quarterback within the next three seasons?
That’s what general managers have to consider because if they take Richardson in the top five and he fails, everyone involved in that process is out of a job.
Never say never when it comes to the NFL draft, but I’m betting no one takes that risk.
NFL draft prop: Christian Gonzalez’s draft position under 8.5
An early run on cornerbacks is possible, so Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez looks like a good value to land within the top eight picks.
Christian Gonzalez betting analysis:
As the draft order stands today, there at least four teams in the top eight who appear to be in the market for a cornerback:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Detroit Lions
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Atlanta Falcons
Cardinals new general manager Monti Ossenfort spent the majority of his career in New England, and those who come from that front office tree tend to put a premium on cornerbacks.
Ossenfort spent the last three years in Tennessee, working with fellow Patriots alum Jon Robinson, where they selected a cornerback in the first or second round all three years.
This logic also applies to Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler in Las Vegas, as they were hired from New England.
The Lions need a replacement for the recently-traded Jeff Okudah, and 6-foot-1 Gonzalez and his 32-inch arms are a definite fit for Aaron Glenn’s defense.
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot comes from New Orleans, a franchise that has also placed an emphasis on the secondary over the years. Although Atlanta acquired Okudah from Detroit, it also recently released Casey Heyward.
We could also throw the Colts and Seahawks into the mix here, even though most rumors have linked them to other positions. Seattle is well-known for coveting cornerbacks with elite length, which describes Gonzalez. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who spent a significant portion of his career in Seattle, is likely looking for the same traits for his defense.
NFL draft prop: Chargers to draft a running back with first pick
The Chargers want to add to the talent around Justin Herbert, so we should assume they’ll consider all the top offensive prospects, including Bijan Robinson.
Released Last Week at +800 » Bet it now: +700
Chargers to draft a running back betting analysis:
A few notable media members have provided some support to the theory that Robinson could land in the Chargers’ backfield.
Eddie Brown of the San Diego Union-Tribune connected the Chargers to Robinson in his most recent mock draft. Brown accurately linked them to Zion Johnson last year.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein also stated he believes it’s “unlikely” Robinson is on the board for the Cowboys with the 26th pick, which puts the Chargers on a short list of candidates to take him.
NFL draft prop: Dalton Kincaid to be first tight end selected
Due to his pass-catching ability, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid is a good bet to be the first tight end selected.
Released Two Weeks Ago at -200 » Bet it now: -120
First tight end selected betting analysis:
I recommended this prop at -200 last week, so obviously I’m still on board at better odds. Michael Mayer is the one to worry about, and the preference between the two will depend on which team takes the first tight end.
Detroit (18th pick) is the earliest potential landing spot for a tight end that feels like an obvious team to have the more physical Mayer ranked ahead of Kincaid.
The Washington Commanders could take Kincaid as high as 16th overall, giving new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy someone to plug into the Travis Kelce role in his offense.
The Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Chargers are also possible Kincaid landing spots.
NFL draft prop: Jaguars first player drafted to be a wide receiver
This line has shifted dramatically from where I recommended it last week (+5000), but there’s still value in betting on the Jaguars to take a wide receiver.
Released Two Weeks Ago at +5000 » Bet it now: +1500
Jaguars first player drafted betting analysis:
Every general manager in the AFC understands they must outscore the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and/or Buffalo Bills to win the AFC.
That reality is going to affect draft strategy now and in the years to come.
The Jaguars have a solid receiving corps, but they would certainly be justified to add another weapon to pair with Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk.
We also have some draft history on our side with this prop.
When general manager Trent Baalke was in San Francisco, his first selection after the team made its first playoff appearance was a wide receiver (A.J. Jenkins in 2012).
Baalke made the selection despite already having an offense built around Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.
Jenkins was a historic bust, but the selection gives us some insight into what Baalke’s team-building strategy might be at this stage of the process in Jacksonville.