2026 NFL Overs: Best Running Back Prop Bets
- David Montgomery — Over 825.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- David Montgomery — Over 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-102)
- Chase Brown — Over 824.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Chase Brown — Over 5.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-125)
2026 NFL Longshot Running Back Prop Bets
- David Montgomery Touchdown Ladder
- 10+ Touchdowns (+195)
- 12+ Touchdowns (+350)
- 15+ Touchdowns (+800)
- Chase Brown Rushing Ladder
- 1000+ Rushing Yards (+210)
- 1250+ Rushing Yards (+550)
- 1500+ Rushing Yards (+1700)
Fantasy football projections, like those done by Rich Hribar, can be a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets.
Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who we are higher on than the current market.
We will also look at some longshot bets for teams that could alter their strategy significantly from previous seasons.
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David Montgomery 2026 Over/Under Prediction
The Houston Texans traded a player and two draft picks, including a 2026 fourth-round pick, for David Montgomery.
They followed the trade by upgrading his contract.
Going back two seasons, the Texans acquired Joe Mixon.
Mixon handled more than 89% of the running back carries in nine of his 14 starts that year, including two games with 100% of the running back carries despite dealing with an ankle injury throughout the season.
Mixon eclipsed 20 carries in half of his starts in 2024.
Given the fact that the Texans are favorites to win the AFC South and are buoyed by an elite defense, Montgomery could be trusted to protect leads on a team projected for favorable game scripts.
Before splitting the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs, who is currently the highest-paid running back in the league, Montgomery handled more than 200 carries in each of his first five NFL seasons.
Montgomery has proven he can handle a large workload throughout his entire career.
Xavier Hutchinson finished 2025 second on the team in wide receiver routes, and Christian Kirk ran 21 routes per game when healthy, ahead of Day 2 picks Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
DeMeco Ryans has shown time and time again he trusts his elite defense and veterans on offense, which favors Montgomery.
Woody Marks had an unremarkable season as a rookie, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, which provides runway for Montgomery to handle as much of the rushing work as possible.
Rich Hribar points out in his running back tiers that Montgomery is a schematic fit for Nick Caley’s man/gap rush attack.
The Texans ranked second in the league in man/gap run rate last year.
Montgomery had a 50% success rate and led all running backs in EPA per rush on man/gap runs.
The offensive line is a concern, but the Texans overhauled the five-man unit that ranked 32nd in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate last season.
Even if the line does not improve, this is a bet based on volume over efficiency.
There are strong signals for a 200-250 carry season, and I would not be shocked if Montgomery is among the leaders in rush attempts, pushing 280 carries if he remains healthy.
David Montgomery Prop Bet Recommendation
- Over 825.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Over 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-102)
David Montgomery Longshot Recommendation
- Touchdown Ladder
- 10+ Touchdowns (+195)
- 12+ Touchdowns (+350)
- 15+ Touchdowns (+800)
| 2026 NFL Player Props |
|---|
| Warren Sharp's Futures |
| Best Quarterback Overs |
| Best Quarterback Unders |
| Best Running Back Overs |
| Best Running Back Unders (Coming Soon) |
| Best Wide Receiver Overs (Coming Soon) |
| Best Wide Receiver Unders (Coming Soon) |
Chase Brown 2026 Over/Under Prediction
Chase Brown enters the final year of his rookie contract as the clear lead back looking to build off his first 1,000-yard rushing season.
Brown rushed for 1,019 yards in 2025 despite the Bengals finishing second in dropbacks and 29th in rush attempts.
The Bengals are projected to face the second-easiest strength of schedule, which benefits Brown.
He has elevated usage and production in Bengals victories compared to losses.
The schedule is significantly easier than last season, and of the top-eight teams in terms of Super Bowl odds, the Bengals only face the Ravens (twice).
Over the past two seasons, Brown has averaged 17.2 carries and 75.2 rushing yards per game in wins compared to 11.6 carries and 50.3 rushing yards per game in losses despite a similar yards per carry.
The trio of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins forces defenses to respect the passing game.
Brown benefits from running against defenses that often prioritize stopping the pass.
He faced a light box on 35.8% of carries last season, well above league average, and ran into eight-man boxes on 30.2% of rushes, which is below league average.
Dexter Lawrence improves a Bengals run defense that was bludgeoned on the ground last season, allowing 2,500 rushing yards.
As a result of defensive struggles, the Bengals averaged 10.5 drives per game last season, down from previous years.
Although there is a league-wide decrease in play volume per game, an improved defense will provide the offense with a boost in play volume.
The Bengals did not invest in the running back room, and their current depth chart, which includes 30-year-old journeyman Samaje Perine and Tahj Brooks, suggests Brown remains the primary runner.
Chase Brown Prop Bet Recommendation
- Over 824.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Over 5.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-125)
Chase Brown Longshot Recommendation
- Rushing Ladder
- 1000+ Rushing Yards (+210)
- 1250+ Rushing Yards (+550)
- 1500+ Rushing Yards (+1700)