Week 5 NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds: Picks, Best Bets & Longshots

Jared Goff (+500) is the current favorite to lead the league in passing yards on Sunday.

Week 5 NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds

Week 4 Review

Good process tends to lead to good results.

Despite some unfortunate circumstances, Joe Burrow hit our first Weekly Passing Leader of the season at +900.

Bengals running backs combined for 17 rushing yards on 12 carries, the Bengals trailed, and Burrow had 54 pass attempts en route to a 428-yard passing performance without Ja'Marr Chase, who left in the first half with a concussion.

Tyson Bagent also hit all the passing ladders, completing the clean sweep for the Passing Yards article.

Passing Yards Leader Betting Strategy

The first four weeks have shown that game state is the best predictor of peak passing outcomes.

Back-and-forth games that go down to the final couple of minutes see peak aggressiveness from both teams for ceiling results.

Trailing teams are also forced to pass more.

However, if the lead is large enough, the opposing team hinders the peak passing total by slowing the game down with rushing and running out the clock.

Last season, the weekly passing leader averaged 375.4 passing yards, with totals ranging from 300 to 474.

In 2025, 10 of the weekly passing leaders were on the winning team.

More importantly, eight of those were by one score or less.

Passing volume is driven by game state working in the opposite direction of rushing, but a competitive back-and-forth game provides a runway for the highest passing ceiling.

In 2025, there were six quarterbacks who had 400-yard passing games.

Five of the six ended up losing the game.

A team that trails early abandons the run, which provides value to quarterbacks who are projected for fewer passing yards.

Week 5 Shortlist

This Sunday features eight games that are currently lined within four points, creating a week with a lot of possible variances in competitive game states.

Both sides of the Bears/Packers are intriguing in a heated division game that will likely come down to the final couple of minutes.

It is easy to see a path for Joe Burrow efficiency, but volume could limit his ceiling.

The Giants/Commanders provide the most fun path to a shootout as both pass defenses are struggling, but Jayden Daniels is not 100%, and the Giants will likely avoid Jameis Winston passing 40 times against the Commanders' pass rush.

Most Week 5 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jared Goff (+550)

Previous failures include wish casting an offense to turn struggles into success with no real evidence for change.

Rather than get cute with a selection, I will keep it simple going with a solid offense facing an abysmal defense.

The Cardinals are allowing a league-high 9.1 yards per pass attempt.

Fortunately, they have faced the second-fewest pass attempts of the season.

Both the Seahawks and 49ers built double-digit leads, limiting passing volume.

There is the potential for that this week, but Dan Campbell is built different and will continue to remain aggressive if that occurs.

The Lions could also continue to struggle on defense, turning this into a back-and-forth shootout where neither team can get a stop.

The Lions are improving in terms of offensive line health, whereas the Cardinals are not.

Paris Johnson Jr. was placed on the IR.

This game features two of the worst pass defenses, and both are dealing with injuries.

That could provide for a back-and-forth game state.

However, even if the Cardinals struggle, the 2-2 Lions will keep their foot on the gas.

Week 5 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Tyler Huntley Passing Ladders

• Tyler Huntley Over 173.5 Passing Yards (-113)
• Tyler Huntley 200+ Passing Yards (+187)
• Tyler Huntley 220+ Passing Yards (+320)
• Tyler Huntley  250+ Passing Yards (+730)

Using a similar recipe as last week, targeting a backup quarterback who is likely undervalued because of the offensive system and matchup.

It's early, and the Ravens have sustained some injuries on the offensive line, but Baltimore currently ranks second in EPA per dropback.

New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle spent time with Ben Johnson and appears to be creating opportunities for success in the passing game.

In this matchup, the Ravens face an Atlanta Falcons defense that has smothered opposing rushing attacks, limiting opposing running backs to 3.1 yards per carry, which only trails the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Ravens traded a future second-round pick for Cam Jurgens, which is pretty telling of the state of the offensive line.

Derrick Henry has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over the past two weeks, which includes a game against the Dallas Cowboys defense.

Given the unlikelihood of success on the ground, the Ravens will have to attack the Falcons through the air.

Opposing offenses are passing at the highest rate against the Falcons, and despite entering Sunday night with a backup quarterback, the Ravens could pass more than expected.

Obviously, Tyler Huntley is a significant downgrade from Lamar Jackson.

However, I believe the offensive infrastructure created by Doyle will reduce the significance of the drop-off that we would see in other offensive systems.

NFL Weekly Passing Yards Leaders