We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or bad no-call. Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2024 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. Eagles covered in our Super Bowl 59 Hub.

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NFL Referee Assignments for Super Bowl 59

Super Bowl 59Referee
Chiefs vs. EaglesRon Torbert

Ron Torbert’s Impact on Eagles vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX

The Eagles return to the Super Bowl stage with a matchup against the Chiefs awaiting them once again. It's fitting that the team that was the Chiefs’ first conquest in their quest for a three-peat is the same unit attempting to end their reign and deny them the chance at NFL history.

The current climate surrounding officiating in the NFL adds an additional layer of intrigue to this matchup, ensuring that this will be the most scrutinized Super Bowl in NFL history.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Ron Torbert will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

  • The crew is headed by Ron Torbert with additions from the Alex Kemp, John Hussey, and Scott Novak crews patrolling along the line of scrimmage.
  • Super Bowl LIX will be Ron Torbert’s 11th postseason game as a head referee. His previous ten contests have averaged 10.9 penalties for 87.1 yards per game. His previous Super Bowl at the conclusion of the 2021 season had 6 penalties for 41 yards. That game featured the Bengals and Rams, who were two of the least penalized teams that season, ranking 30th and 31st respectively in penalty per game average. This matchup shares some similarities, with the Eagles and Chiefs ranking 24th and 31st respectively in penalties per game in 2024.
  • The Chiefs have averaged a +1.6 net penalty count advantage per game versus the Eagles this season.
  • The four crews patrolling the line of scrimmage area placed an above average emphasis on offensive holding compared to the NFL average during the 2024 regular season.
  • The all-important false start/offensive holding combination accounted for 38% of the Eagles' penalties versus 49% for the Chiefs during the regular season. The league average is 38.9% in those key categories. The advantage here for the Chiefs is the league wants fewer false starts and offensive holding calls in highly viewed postseason games. Nothing bogs a game down more than a 10-yard offensive holding penalty. The solution is simply don't call it at the same rate as you would during the regular season. This isn't a strategy enacted to assist the Chiefs. The fact is a decline in both categories became a regular postseason trend long before Patrick Mahomes and Taylor Swift arrived on the scene in Kansas City. It just so happens that the Chiefs' penalty weakness coincides with the area the NFL prefers to provide more leeway during the playoffs. It was a huge benefit to Kansas City in their 2023 postseason run and has helped again in 2024.
  • Noteworthy, the Chiefs were penalized three times (one declined) for offensive holding in their 30-9 Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay in 2020. However, the Chiefs were penalized just one time in their three Super Bowl victories. Not one time per game. Once in three games, well below their average over that span.
  • The Eagles defense has been lights out at generating offensive holds on opposing offenses this postseason. If the Eagles can create chaos up front, and offensive holding calls are a byproduct of defensive pressure, it will go a long way to achieving a victory on February 9. That's a big if, though, given the league's desire to have reductions in this penalty category in the biggest game of the season.
  • Members of the Tra Blake, Shawn Smith, and Clete Blakeman officiating crews will be patrolling the back end of the field. This trio’s emphasis on defensive holding ranks them well above the league average in this key penalty category. No offense has been the beneficiary of more defensive holding penalties since 2018 than the Chiefs. Defensive holding was pivotal in the previous Super Bowl matchup between these teams, and based on these numbers, it will be again in Super Bowl LIX.
  • Two controversial penalty categories throughout the 2024 playoffs are roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness. Dating back to the 2010 season, only two roughing the passer penalties have been called in the Super Bowl. Unnecessary roughness has been called at a significantly higher rate over that span. The combined per game average for roughing the passer for the four officials patrolling the trenches is below the league average.
  • Conversely, this crew is predisposed to calling unnecessary roughness at a far higher rate than the NFL 2024 average. Based on historical data combined with the emphasis on unnecessary roughness this postseason, this group of officials throwing a flag for unnecessary roughness in Super Bowl LIX is a strong possibility. If you see a yes/no prop bet for an unnecessary roughness penalty, the yes at plus money would be worth adding to your Super Bowl prop bet portfolio.

The Bottom Line:

  • The Nick Sirianni/Jalen Hurts-led Eagles are 5-1 in Ron Torbert officiated contests. This will be the Eagles' third Torbert officiated contest in the 2024 season. Philadelphia kicked off their season versus the Packers in Brazil with Torbert in charge. It's the only time a team has played its first and last games of the season on a neutral field with the same referee in charge of proceedings.
  • As mentioned this week on the Sharp Football Show, this will be the Chiefs' first game with Ron Torbet since the 2022 AFC Championship against the Bengals.
  • In the 2024 season, favorites were 13-4 straight up and against the spread in Ron Torbert officiated contests, second only to the Alex Kemp-led crew in this category.
  • Ron Torbert has been a solid under referee the past four seasons, on par with Bill Vinovich in this category. However, he was 10-7 over the total in 2024. The new starting field position has resulted in higher scoring games in 2024, and Torbert wasn't immune from that shift. That said, the average closing total on Torbert officiated contests was just 44 points with his games averaging 46.4 points.

Despite this crew's predisposition to call offensive holding, the annual dropoff in offensive holding throughout the playoffs will curtail their emphasis on this key category. The benefit this provides to the Chiefs cannot be overstated.

In the current NFL climate, this crew will be under more pressure than any in Super Bowl history. I can guarantee there will be multiple offensive holds that will not be called, and both teams will be provided leeway up front.

The Eagles' roster is stacked, the best in the league. If Philadelphia brings its collective “A” game as a team, they can not only win, but I believe win by margin. Similar to what the Buccaneers did to the Chiefs back in Super Bowl LV in their 30-9 blowout victory.

That's a big if, though.

As we saw in Super Bowl LVII, the Eagles offense for the most part was excellent, but they were subpar defensively.

Conversely, the Chiefs are entering their 21st postseason game in the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid era. This team lives for and operates better than anyone in high leverage, down to the wire contests. They are conditioned to winning late, perhaps more than any team in NFL history.

In a higher scoring than anticipated contest, Mahomes and company once again find a way to get the win, making the Kansas City Chiefs -1 the selection in Super Bowl LIX.

Bet the Chiefs -1

Super Bowl LIX Officiating Crew preview

Head Referee: Ron Torbert

  • This is Ron Torbert’s 11th postseason assignment as a head referee.
  • Torbert officiated playoff contests have averaged 10.9 penalties for 87.1 yards per game.
  • This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl assignment. His first was the Rams versus Bengals in Super Bowl LVI at the conclusion of the 2021 NFL season.

The Chiefs' last appearance in a Ron Torbert-officiated contest was the 2022 AFC Championship against the Bengals.

That game was marred with controversy throughout the fourth quarter, with a third down do-over and lopsided penalty advantage for the home team over the final ten minutes of the game.

Whether by accident or design, the NFL has not assigned Torbert to a Chiefs contest since that game over two years ago.

Technically, Torbert wasn't assigned to this Chiefs game, as his Super Bowl assignment was announced before the AFC Championship Game. 

Umpire/Down Judge/Line Judge  

In addition to head referee Ron Torbert, the three other officials monitoring the area along the line of scrimmage are from the Alex Kemp, John Hussey, and Scott Novak officiating crews.

  • False start was not a point of emphasis for this quartet, with their cumulative average below the NFL average.
  • These four crews placed above average emphasis on offensive holding compared to the NFL average. However, offensive holding penalties have declined in the playoffs versus regular season averages. Expect minimal calls in this key category on Super Bowl Sunday.
  • This quartet ranks below average in calling ineligible man downfield penalties. This has been an issue for Philadelphia this season, so in theory that benefits the Eagles.

Side Judge/Back Judge/Field Judge

The three officials patrolling the back end are from the Tra Blake, Shawn Smith, and Clete Blakeman officiating crews

  • This trio had a combined average of 35% of overall penalties assessed on the defense in the 2024 regular season, slightly above average.
  • The trio on the back end ranks slightly below average calling defensive pass interference. However, defensive holding was a priority for this trio. That accounted for 6.2% of the crews' combined penalties in 2024, above the league average of 4.9%.

Penalty Tendencies:

  • The Chiefs are averaging 4.5 penalties per game in the playoffs, a decline from the regular season average. The primary factor in the decline? Similar to 2023, it's offensive holding. Don't expect a lot of offensive holding calls in this contest either. If they do call it, the Chiefs are in trouble.
  • Offenses accounted for 51.8% of overall penalties in the regular season. Just 47.7% of penalties have been assessed on offensive units in the playoffs. The primary catalyst of the decline is the annual drop in offensive holding penalties.
  • Defensive infractions accounted for 34% of regular season penalties. That has increased to 41.7% in the playoffs. Defensive holding calls have increased versus regular season numbers. So has unnecessary roughness.
  • Unnecessary roughness penalties have spiked in the playoffs, called at more than double the rate of the regular season. The increase is not surprising. Unnecessary roughness is called at a higher rate in regular season primetime contests. The playoffs are standalone events. The league claims player safety is its No. 1 priority, and high profile games provide the platform to push that narrative via unnecessary roughness calls on questionable plays.
  • Officials from four of the five leading crews calling this infraction will be in charge on Super Bowl Sunday. The bottom line is the combined average of this crew makes them more likely than most to call unnecessary roughness penalties.

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2024 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunity plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 43-39 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill, including a career best 12-5 ATS in 2023
  • Adrian Hill is 45-36-1 Under in his career
  • In Divisional games, Hill is 14-8-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 47-50-1 ATS in Kemp's career
  • Divisional home teams are 14-18 on the moneyline and 13-19 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
  • Kemp is 16-16i in Divisional game totals for his career, including 2-2 in 2023

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams were 13-3 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS in 2023, Alan Eck's first season as a head referee
  • Alan Eck was 10-6 Under in 2023

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • True home teams are 42-54-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018 and went just 5-10-2 ATS with Vinovich in 2023 
  • Bill Vinovich is 61-38-2 Under since 2018, including 11-7 Under in 2023 

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
  • Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those same games since 2016
  • Brad Allen is 73-55 Under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 39-37 on the moneyline and 38-38 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
  • Brad Rogers is 43-33 Over the total in his career
  • Brad Rogers is 18-10 Over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 79-52 on the moneyline since 2016 with Cheffers officiating
  • Home teams are 67-62-2  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
  • Divisional home teams are 29-18 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Clay Martin is 46-43-3 Under in his career. Martin was 11-4-2 Over in 2023
  • True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 47-44 on the moneyline & 37-52-2 ATS  
  • Divisional home teams are 13-15 on the moneyline & 9-19 with Clay Martin officiating

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 61-67-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
  • Divisional home teams are 24-22 on the moneyline since 2016
  • Blakeman is 23-23 on divisional totals including 4-3 under in 2023

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 63-63 on the moneyline and 51-73-2 ATS since 2016
  • Home underdogs are 20-36–1 ATS since 2016, including a 3-3-1 ATS in 2023

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 90-41 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
  • Home teams are 79-47-5 ATS with Hussey since 2016
  • Home teams were 14-3 on the moneyline and 13-3-1 ATS with John Hussey in 2023 

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 25-37-1 ATS in Land Clark’s career
  • Clark is 36-26-1 Under the total in his career, although he was 9-7 Over in 2023

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 27-49-3 ATS (36%) in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
  • Divisional home teams are 9-20-1 ATS (31%) in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams are 43-51-3 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including a 9-7-1 ATS record in 2023
  • Shawn Hochuli was 10-7 Under in 2023 and is 54-41-2 Under the total in his career
  • In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 26-11-1 Under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams were 3-13 on the moneyline and 4-11-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2023
  • Home teams are 42-53-1 on the moneyline and 39-54-3 ATS in Smith's career
  • Shawn Smith was 11-6 Under in 2023 and is 49-47-1 Under the total in his career

Tra Blake: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

  • Home teams 18-13 on the moneyline and 16-15 ATS in Tra Blake's career
  • Divisional home teams are 7-1 on the moneyline & 6-2 ATS in Tra Blake's career