NFL Referee Assignment for Week 14 & Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or bad no-call. Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2024 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

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NFL Referee Assignment for Week 14

Week 14	Referee
Packers at Lions	John Hussey
Falcons at Vikings	Alex Kemp
Panthers at Eagles	Carl Cheffers
Browns at Steelers	Land Calrk
Jaguars at Titans	Tra Blake
Raiders at Buccaneers	Alan eck
Saints at Giants	Clete Blakeman
Jets at Dolphins	Shawn Hochuli
Seahawks at Cradinlas	Clay Martin
Bills at Rams	Craig Wrolstad
Bears at 49ers	Ron Torbert
Chargers at Chiefs	Bill Vinovich
Bengals at Cowboys	Bill Vinovich

Bill Vinovich’s Impact on Chargers at Chiefs

The Chiefs play their fifth primetime game for the 2024 season on Sunday Night Football, hosting their division rival Chargers. They get a familiar face who has officiated many of their greatest victories overseeing proceedings.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Bill Vinovich will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

These are two of the most disciplined teams in the NFL combined with a crew that has consistently called below average penalties season after season. This should be a primetime game where flags are minimal.
The primary penalty issue for the Chiefs in recent seasons has been offensive holding, and 2024 is no different. This category currently accounts for 34% of the team's overall penalties. To put that in perspective, offensive holding accounts for 19.2% of overall penalties for the 31 other NFL teams.
The Chargers defense is slightly above league average at generating offensive holding penalties on opposing offenses. However, the majority of their success occurs at home. On the road, this defense ranks 30th in the NFL in this category.
The Bill Vinovich crew ranked 16th of 17 crews calling offensive holding penalties.
Defensive pass interference penalties have spiked over the past two weeks. The Vinovich crew ranks fourth in defensive pass interference penalties per game in 2024. It's the one defensive category this crew calls at an above average rate. It's a matter of what team has the offensive pieces to potentially take advantage.

The Bottom Line:

Dating back to 2018, Bill Vinovich is 31-18-2 under the total in divisional games including 2-2 in 2024.
In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs are 8-2 in Bill Vinovich officiated contests including their two victories in Super Bowl LIV and Super Bowl LVIII.

The Chiefs defense is holding opponents to under 20 points per game at home.

That doesn't figure to change this week versus a limited Chargers offense.

The Chiefs regularly go through the motions on regular daytime games, but they will get up for these primetime contests. They also benefit from extended rest after playing three games in 13 days, two of them on the road.

The Chargers are a solid team and really well coached. They will keep it close but lack the skill position talent to really threaten the Chiefs defense in any meaningful way.

This won't be a high scoring game, with the home team grinding out a 26-17 type win, making the Kansas City Chiefs -4 points the selection on Sunday Night Football.

Bet the Chiefs -4

Alex Kemp’s Impact on Falcons at Vikings

Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota in one the most anticipated games of the NFL regular season. His former team has exceeded expectations and is justifiably a solid favorite versus the reeling Falcons.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Alex Kemp will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

The Alex Kemp crew ranks second for offensive holding penalties per game. A disproportionate 62% of these infractions have been called on the road team.
Offsetting the excessive offensive holding penalties are limited false starts. Kemp’s crew is calling the fewest false start penalties in the NFL. Much like offensive holding, 62% of these are assessed on the road team in 2024 by this crew.
Kemp ranks No.1 for defensive holding and illegal contact penalties. This is standard operating procedure for this crew, which consistently calls above average defensive penalties.
This crew also ranks No.1 for face masks and is co-ranked third for roughing the passer and illegal use of hands infractions.
The Vikings and Falcons offenses rank second and ninth respectively as beneficiaries of automatic first downs via penalties. The Vikings are particularly efficient at generating defensive pass interference and defensive holding penalties.

The Bottom Line:

Alex Kemp is 58-48-2 to the over in his career. Kemp officiated games are averaging 47.1 points this season.
Home teams are 8-3 on the moneyline and 6-4-1 ATS with Kemp in 2024. More eye-catching are favorites, who are 10-1 on the moneyline and 8-2-1 ATS with the Kemp crew this season.
This will be the Vikings' second game with Kemp in 2024. The previous was a 28-6 Week 1 victory at the Giants.

The game has the potential to be one of the most entertaining this season. Going over 45.5 points is definitely the play from a total perspective as both offenses will have some advantages with this crew in charge of proceedings.

The Falcons' inability to pressure the opposing quarterback bodes well for this Vikings offense

Kirk Cousins has played a lot of great games in this stadium. He has always benefited from a relatively quiet crowd when operating an offense, which won't be the case this week.

Both teams have had this game circled since the schedule release back in May, and both possess elite offensive talent.

However, the Vikings have an elite offensive head coach and arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL.

The home field advantage will be critical, assisting the home team in a 30-23 type win, making the Minnesota Vikings -5.5 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Vikings -5.5

2024 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunity plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 43-39 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill, including a career best 12-5 ATS in 2023
Adrian Hill is 45-36-1 Under in his career
In Divisional games, Hill is 14-8-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 47-50-1 ATS in Kemp's career
Divisional home teams are 14-18 on the moneyline and 13-19 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
Kemp is 16-16i in Divisional game totals for his career, including 2-2 in 2023

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams were 13-3 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS in 2023, Alan Eck's first season as a head referee
Alan Eck was 10-6 Under in 2023

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

True home teams are 42-54-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018 went just 5-10-2 ATS with Vinovich in 2023
Bill Vinovich is 61-38-2 Under since 2018, including 11-7 Under in 2023

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those same games since 2016
Brad Allen is 73-55 Under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 39-37 on the moneyline and 38-38 ATS in Brad Rogers' career
Brad Rogers is 43-33 Over the total in his career
Brad Rogers is 18-10 Over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 79-52 on the moneyline since 2016 with Cheffers officiating
Home teams are 67-62-2 ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
Divisional home teams are 29-18 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Clay Martin is 46-43-3 Under in his career. Martin was 11-4-2 Over in 2023
True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 47-44 on the moneyline & 37-52-2 ATS
Divisional home teams are 13-15 on the moneyline & 9-19 ATS.with Clay Martin officiating

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 61-67-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
Divisional home teams are 24-22 on the moneyline since 2016
Blakeman is 23-23 on divisional totals including 4-3 under in 2023

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 63-63 on the moneyline and 51-73-2 ATS since 2016
Home underdogs are 20-36–1 ATS since 2016, including a 3-3-1 ATS in 2023

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 90-41 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
Home teams are 79-47-5 ATS with Hussey since 2016
Home teams were 14-3 on the moneyline and 13-3-1 ATS with John Hussey in 2023

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 25-37-1 ATS in Land Clark’s career

Clark is 36-26-1 Under the total in his career, although he was 9-7 Over in 2023

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 27-49-3 ATS (36%) in Scott Novak's career, the lowest ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
Divisional home teams are 9-20-1 ATS (31%) in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 43-51-3 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including a 9-7-1 ATS record in 2023
Shawn Hochuli was 10-7 Under in 2023 and is 54-41-2 Under the total in his career
In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 26-11-1 Under the total in his career