NFL Referee Assignment for Week 10, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 10

Brad Rogers’ Impact on Steelers at Chargers

The Steelers head west, fresh off their biggest win of the season, facing a Chargers team looking to keep pace in the highly competitive AFC West. It's an intriguing Sunday Night Football matchup in a game that will have big playoff implications.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Brad Rogers will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The combination of offensive and special teams penalties accounts for 65% of penalties assessed through nine weeks of the 2025 NFL season. The Brad Rogers crew on SNF is assessing a league-leading 75% of their penalties in these two areas.
• The Chargers offense enters Week 10 ranking as a top-five offensive unit in penalty per game average.
• Conversely, the Steelers enter this game ranking 30th in offensive penalties per game.
• The Chargers rank third in pre-snap penalties per game, with false starts the primary culprit, a category the Bolts rank second in per game average.
• Since 2022, no officiating crew has called more offensive pass interference penalties than Rogers. That trend has continued in 2025, with this crew ranking No. 1 for offensive pass interference.
• Rogers’ crew is awarding the second-fewest third down defensive penalties in 2025.
• The Rogers crew ranks last in awarding automatic first downs via penalty in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

• The Steelers are 5-1 on the moneyline and ATS in Rogers officiated contests, including 3-0 on the moneyline and ATS on the road.
• Rogers is 54-45 (55%) to the over in his career. However, there is a clear dichotomy between Rogers’ 2019-2021 and 2022-2025 numbers, where he pivoted from the best over referee to more of an under referee post 2021.

Despite the game being played at SoFi Stadium, this will have the look and feel of a Steelers home game, albeit 2,500 miles from Pittsburgh.

The Chargers have a real problem ahead of them with Joe Alt joining Rashawn Slater on the injured reserve, and all signs point to the reenergized Steelers defense generating pressure on Justin Herbert.

It's a Mike Tomlin versus Jim Harbaugh contest, meaning the under would be the only way to approach this game from a total perspective.

Pittsburgh isn't built to blow teams out, so by default, the game will be close late, and getting points is a bonus in that scenario.

Ultimately, both Chargers star offensive tackles being out for this game is too much to overcome, making the Pittsburgh Steelers +3 points the selection on Sunday Night Football.

Bet the Steelers +3

Shawn Hochuli’s Impact on Ravens at Vikings

Baltimore heads to Minnesota needing a win to stay in playoff contention. The Vikings come into this contest off their biggest win of the season, but find themselves in the unenviable position of catching the Ravens at close to full strength.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Hochuli will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The Vikings offense and special teams account for a disproportionate 73% of the team's overall penalties.
• Shawn Hochuli's crew co-ranks No. 1 in assessing special teams penalties through nine weeks of the 2025 season.
• The all-important false start-offensive holding combination has always been a point of emphasis in Hochuli’s career. His crew has dialed the calls back in 2025, relative to previous seasons, although they still rank at league average in raw per game numbers.
• The Vikings rank second in offensive holding penalty per game average and are a top-five penalized team for pre-snap penalties, although some of that can partially be attributed to injuries on the offensive line and quarterback position.
• Offensive holding was a major issue for the Ravens last season, where they ranked as the No. 1 penalized road team in this category. There has been a big improvement this season, and continuing that trend will be critical on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium, which is one of the loudest venues in the NFL.
• Other areas of focus for Hochuli’s crew in 2025 are unnecessary roughness and illegal contact, where they rank No. 1 in both categories as we head into Week 10 of the season.

The Bottom Line:

• Home teams are a subpar 43% ATS in Hochuli’s career, including 3-5 ATS in 2025.
• The Vikings are 5-0 on the moneyline and 4-1 ATS in Hochuli officiated contests.

It's a small sample size, but Hochuli’s record in Vikings games is interesting, considering he has run afoul of most fan bases at one point or another throughout his career.

Injuries have contributed to Baltimore’s slow start to the season, and it leaves them with little room for error moving forward if they have designs on making the playoffs.

Injuries have played a part in Minnesota’s season as well, but the team has been very inconsistent.

Was the Vikings' performance at the Lions last week a sign of things to come or an outlier performance? They have yet to record consecutive wins in 2025.

In the NFL, it's often not who you play but when you play them.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, they face Baltimore at the worst possible time.

The Ravens come into this game off extra rest and relatively healthy.

Lamar Jackson’s record versus the NFC is well-documented.

Those factors add up to make the Baltimore Ravens -4 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Ravens -4

Clay Martin’s Impact on Eagles at Packers

The Eagles and Packers meeting on Monday Night Football marks the third occasion in just over a year the two teams have squared off, with the winner of this game getting an inside edge at homefield advantage in the NFC.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Clay Martin will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Clay Martin’s crew ranks highly in enforcing the all-important false start-offensive holding combination. Since the start of the 2023 season, a league-leading 44% of Martin’s penalties have been assessed in these two key categories, compared to the NFL average of 38.1% over the same timeframe. In raw numbers this season, Martin’s crew ranks fifth (of 17 crews) in false start-offensive holding penalty per game average.
• The aforementioned false start-offensive holding combination accounts for an above average 46% of Packers penalties in 2025. Conversely, those two categories account for only 32% of the Eagles' overall penalties.
• Pre-snap penalties are always a point of emphasis with this crew. In addition to false starts, Martin’s crew ranks No. 1 in calling illegal formation penalties and co-rank No. 1 for offensive offsides in 2025.
• The Packers are a top-three penalized defensive unit on key third down plays and have surrendered the most automatic first downs via penalty on the money down this season.
• The Eagles defense accounts for an above average 41% of the team's overall penalties. The primary contributors to this number are defensive pass interference and roughing the passer.
• The aforementioned defensive penalty numbers have resulted in the Eagles and Packers ranking in the top 10 defenses in surrendering automatic first downs via penalty.
• Martin’s crew ranked last in calling defensive pass interference in 2024 and currently ranks 16 out of 17 crews in 2025 calling this penalty. However, they place more emphasis on defensive holding penalties than most crews, co-ranking No. 1 in this category in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

• True home teams are 48-64-3 ATS (43%) in Martin’s career, including 5-3 ATS in 2025.
• The Eagles are 3-3-1 ATS in Martin officiated contests. Philadelphia was the underdog in two of those contests, recording a 2-0 ATS record. That includes an outright Philadelphia win at Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football as 3.5-point underdogs in 2019.
• Martin is 4-4 on totals in 2025, with his games averaging 44.5 points, which happens to be the game total.

Green Bay’s best is as good as anyone's in the NFL, and we saw that in the second half of their convincing win at Pittsburgh.

The problem is we don't see that type of performance consistently from this team.

The Eagles have had consistency issues themselves and can often be their own worst enemy.

However, Philadelphia added key defensive pieces prior to the trade deadline and enters this game off a bye, a situation they have performed well in during the Nick Sirianni era.

The Eagles have had the Packers' number in recent years, including a 2-0 record last season, and they won't be intimidated by the Lambeau mystique.

These games are won and lost in the trenches, and it is advantage Eagles along both lines of scrimmage.

The Eagles' advantage up front lays the foundation to not only cover the spread, but win outright, making the Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 points the selection on Monday Night Football.

Bet the Eagles +2.5

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career