Every week during the NFL season, our experts will give you their favorite same game parlays from that week’s action.
Same Game Parlays have grown in popularity in recent seasons as recreational gamblers are drawn to parlay bets.
Parlays are especially exciting for casual gamblers looking to win more than double the original bet.
The sportsbook edge or hold on parlays is greater than on single bets because the hold is compounded during each additional bet.
This edge can be reduced by selecting correlated outcomes, as the likelihood of both occurring together may be higher than what the sportsbook’s odds suggest.
By identifying correlated outcomes, there’s a potential to turn a fun and recreational bet into a +EV opportunity.
What is a same game parlay?
A same game parlay is a wager that combines multiple bet outcomes or “legs” from a single game. Combining these bets increases the risk and, therefore, the potential payout if every leg hits.
These wagers are very often correlated, meaning if one of the legs wins, it is more likely the other legs will win as well.
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Same Game Parlay Picks, Predictions & Bets for Week 11
Commanders vs. Dolphins Same Game Parlay:
- Dolphins Alt Team Total Over 26.5
- Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) Over 79.5 Receiving Yards
With Dan Quinn taking over defensive play calling, a more aggressive defense is likely.
Waddle has averaged 3.7 yards per route and a 32% target rate this season when opposing defenses blitz (without Tyreek Hill).
The Commanders have the highest average age in the NFL.
Traveling to Spain is not ideal for an old defense that has allowed more than 400 yards in each of the last four games.
Packers vs. Giants Same Game Parlay:
- Packers -7
- Josh Jacobs (Packers) Over 80.5 Rushing Yards
The Giants allow 5.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs as the worst rush defense in the league.
Jacobs averages 18 carries per game this season and is now multiple weeks removed from the injury report.
The Packers defense ranks ninth in success rate and faces a Giants offense missing Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers, and Cam Skattebo.
Chargers vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay:
- Chargers/Jaguars Over 43.5
- Quentin Johnston (Chargers) Over 3.5 Receptions
- Justin Herbert (Chargers) Over 35.5 Pass Attempts
- Travis Etienne (Jaguars) Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
The Jaguars have allowed 29 points to the Raiders and 36 points to the Texans over the past two weeks.
The Chargers have scored 24 points or more in each of their last five games.
Jaguars games combine for 73 pass attempts, the highest amount in the league, as the Jaguars are a pass funnel defense.
The Jaguars offense will be without Brenton Strange and Hunter Long, which has increased Etienne's role in the passing game.
Johnston's role changed in the offense with the absence of Joe Alt.
Last week, Johnston had 10 targets with an average of 3.4 air yards per target.
Etienne has been targeted on 30% of his routes over the past two games, and the Chargers defense allows 31 yards to opposing running backs per game.
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