Week 6 NFL Rushing Yards Leader Odds: Best Bets & Longshots

Bijan Robinson (+600) is the current favorite to lead the league in rushing yards on Sunday.

Week 6 NFL Rushing Yards Leader Odds

Week 5 Review

Game state is the biggest driver of running back volume, and last week I selected a banged-up running back on a Chicago Bears team which was being bet against throughout the week.

The Bears closed as short favorites, a significant move off the 3, which should have signaled that people with influence in the market liked the Packers.

Swift was reasonably efficient, but he had a single carry in the second half as the Bears trailed by multiple touchdowns.

The simple answer was the correct answer last week, as Jahmyr Gibbs and the Detroit Lions flooded the Cardinals, winning by 24 points.

That resulted in a 25-carry, 151-yard day that took down the Sunday rushing title (Bucky Irving has more yards, but that was on Thursday night).

Braelon Allen and Aaron Jones were next on the list, as both running backs controlled their backfield, and both teams led for the majority of their respective games.

There will be outliers, but last week was further evidence to target a team expected to win with a single running back handling the majority of the workload.

Although this article doesn't touch on correlated Same Game Parlays, there is significant evidence to add a bell-cow running back rushing yard total to winning team bets.

Rushing Yards Leader Betting Strategy

Predicting weekly rushing leaders involves focusing on the correct details.

The formula to predict most Sunday rushing yards is often predictable.

Volume is king, and positive game script boosts it.

In 2025, 15 of the weekly rushing leaders came from a winning team.

Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, and TreVeyon Henderson were the three running backs who led a week while losing, including two 1-point losses and one 4-point loss.

Final score impacting rushing ceiling games is not a coincidence, as game state is a critical driver of rush attempts.

In 2025, there were 17 instances of a running back reaching 150 or more rushing yards in a single game.

Only 1 running back eclipsed 150 yards in a losing effort, a game in which the Baltimore Ravens squandered a 15-point fourth-quarter lead.

Through four weeks, 19 running backs have rushed for 100 yards in a game, and all but 1 have come from the winning team.

No running back has rushed for more than 100 yards on fewer than 17 carries.

In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, identify favorites or short dogs.

Week 6 Shortlist

Several lead running backs are in good situations as favorites on Sunday, making it hard to narrow the list of potential winners.

Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in Cleveland.

Chuba Hubbard and the Carolina Panthers are 3.5-point favorites against an Eagles team that is returning from London, does not have Jalen Hurts, and is dealing with some internal issues.

Rhamondre Stevenson could return to his early-season usage if TreVeyon Henderson is out, and the Patriots have a favorable matchup as touchdown favorites against the New York Jets.

Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, and James Cook are bell-cow running backs and strong favorites to lead the list of likely candidates for most rushing yards this week.

Most Week 6 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Derrick Henry (+700)

Henry leads the league with 113 rush attempts in the opening five weeks of the season.

His volume is very stable.

The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson for a second consecutive week, which improves the chances of the offense leaning on Henry in a divisional matchup against the Browns.

Efficiency has been a struggle this season, with Henry averaging 4.2 yards per carry, a yard worse than any other season with the Ravens.

The Ravens' offensive line has been a trouble spot.

Henry is averaging 0.99 yards before contact and is still averaging above 3 yards after contact.

After facing a stout Falcons run defense, Henry draws a Browns unit which has struggled to stop opposing running backs this season.

The Browns have allowed 3.7 yards after contact, ranking 30th, and are allowing opposing running backs a league-high 3.6 carries per game for 10 or more yards.

Adding to the Browns' struggles, Carson Schwesinger was seen in a walking boot and only had one limited practice this week.

Mason Graham also only had one limited practice.

Both players are questionable.

Henry has the trifecta on Sunday: volume, positive game state, and a great matchup.

Week 6 Running Back Longshot Bet: Blake Corum & Kyren Williams Combined Rushing Yards

• Corum & Williams 125+ Combined Rushing Yards (+105)
• Corum & Williams 150+ Combined Rushing Yards (+223)
• Corum & Williams 175+ Combined Rushing Yards (+459)
• Corum & Williams 200+ Combined Rushing Yards (+930)

Game script matters for the Williams-Corum tandem.

Corum's rush share has plummeted over the past three weeks.

In each of the last three games, the Rams have been in tight matchups that have all finished as one-score games and had lead changes in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter.

The Rams are 12.5-point favorites at home against a struggling Cardinals team, which bodes well for the Rams' running back duo.

The Cardinals are facing a league-high 26.4 opposing running back carries this season, including 38 from the Seahawks and 31 from the Lions in blowout losses.

In addition to a favorable game script, the matchup is solid, with the Rams holding a significant advantage in the trenches.

The Rams rank sixth in ESPN's Run Block Win Rate, and the Cardinals rank 20th in Run Stop Win Rate.

Arizona is allowing 2.8 running back rushes to gain 10 or more yards per week, which is the fourth most.

In Week 14 of 2025, the Rams had their most productive rushing game of the season, and the backfield combined for 253 rushing yards on 33 carries.

Sunday provides the Rams an opportunity to get back to a more balanced offense, and both running backs should have success as a result.

NFL Weekly Rushing Yards Leaders