Houston at Utah, Current Betting Odds:
- Utah -6.5 points
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Houston at Utah Best Bet Prediction:
- Houston +6.5 points
The Cougars have looked great on the road this year, so let's take the points and play Houston against the spread.
Houston's Key Matchup on Offense
Houston runs a slightly pass-heavy offense, opting to keep the ball in Conner Weigman‘s hands as often as possible.
That's probably a good strategy against a Utah team that has struggled to get after the quarterback this season.
Take a look at the pass-protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Houston: ranked 13th in pressure rate allowed
- Utah: ranked 81st in pressure rate generated
Kyle Whittingham took Utah's best pass rusher, John Henry Daley, with him to Michigan, and the unit hasn't been able to replace his production.
A veteran quarterback like Weigman usually makes the defense pay when it can't get pressure, and he's done exactly that.
Weigman is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt in a clean pocket, ranked 36th.
The lack of pressure should make it relatively easy for Weigman to attack downfield.
On throws of 10 or more yards, Weigman is completing 59.7% of his attempts, the nation's seventh-highest rate.
Utah ranks 33rd in completion rate allowed at that depth, but the Utes haven't faced a quarterback close to Weigman's ability nor a receiver like Amare Thomas.
The best quarterback Utah has faced based on that downfield metric is Colorado's Isaac Wilson, who ranks 77th in completion rate on throws of 10 or more yards.
So we should expect Weigman to expose some flaws in Utah's defense that have been masked by the pitiful level of competition it has faced to this point in the season.
Utah's Key Matchup on Offense
Utah runs a balanced offense under first-year coordinator Kevin McGiven, but success of the run game sets the tone for the unit.
Utah likes to attack downfield, but Devon Dampier is not a prolific passer.
The Utes need to establish the run in an effort to force teams to commit more defenders to the box and open things up for the passing attack.
Early this season, the Utah offense rolled because it hadn't faced anyone capable of stopping the run, which allowed all phases of the offense to work smoothly.
Last week, however, Colorado finally provided some resistance against the run, and the entire offense stalled out.
Take a look at the opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed by the defenses Utah has faced this year:
- Colorado: ranked 1st
- Arkansas: ranked 48th
- Utah State: ranked 66th
- Iowa State: ranked 111th
- Kansas: ranked 113th
Houston ranks 24th by the same metric and is likely to provide enough resistance to force Dampier to make more plays in the passing game, which is exactly what caused problems against Colorado.
Prior to attempting 41 passes against the Buffs, Dampier hadn't attempted more than 30 in any game this season.
He wasn't up for the challenge, and his three sacks and 2 interceptions played a key role in allowing Colorado to hang around.
Dampier spent the previous two seasons with offensive coordinator Jason Beck, first at New Mexico and then following him to Utah.
But Dampier stayed behind when Beck followed Whittingham to Michigan.
Now McGiven is stuck with a quarterback who doesn't fit his scheme.
Dampier was dangerous when paired with Beck due to their use of the read-option.
Utah used the read-option on 42% of its rush attempts last year and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt on those plays, according to Sports Info Solutions.
This year that rate plummeted to 12.5%.
The more traditional rushing attack makes it easier for competent defenses to contain Wayshawn Parker, which the Utes found out the hard way last week.
Expect similar problems to emerge against a solid Houston defensive front.
Final Thoughts on Utah vs. Houston Best Bets
Trust the battle-tested team with the more experienced head coach and play Houston against the spread.
Houston already played Texas Tech tough on the road and pulled off a road upset at Kansas State.
Willie Fritz will have his team prepared for the road environment, and Utah might not be ready for the significant step up in competition.