| Matchup | Kickoff (Eastern) | Point Spread (home team) | Total Points (over/under) | Moneyline (away / home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels at TCU Horned Frogs | Saturday, August 29, 12:00 p.m. ET | -8.5 | 46.5 | +265 / -340 |
| San José State Spartans at No. 14 USC Trojans | Saturday, August 29, 3:00 p.m. ET | -38.5 | 61.5 | — / — |
| NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers | Saturday, August 29, 3:30 p.m. ET | -4 | 51.5 | +150 / -190 |
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks at North Dakota State Bison | Saturday, August 29, 5:30 p.m. ET | -6.5 | 46.5 | +210 / -265 |
| Sacramento State Hornets at Eastern Michigan Eagles | Saturday, August 29, 6:30 p.m. ET | -9.5 | 53.5 | +275 / -350 |
| New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles | Saturday, August 29, 7:00 p.m. ET | -31.5 | 53.5 | +3000 / -10000 |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Stanford Cardinal | Saturday, August 29, 7:00 p.m. ET | -4 | 48.5 | +160 / -195 |
| Memphis Tigers at UNLV Rebels | Saturday, August 29, 10:00 p.m. ET | -4.5 | 56.5 | +160 / -190 |
Ryan McCrystal's College Football Picks: Week 0 Best Bets
TCU vs. North Carolina Best Bet Prediction:
- North Carolina +9.5 points
When TCU Is on Offense
Heading into Bill Belichick’s debut last season, we correctly predicted TCU would run all over the Carolina defense.
Belichick had never faced a spread scheme like TCU’s, and his stubborn commitment to lining up with heavy boxes was the wrong approach for that style of offense.
However, we have to throw all that analysis out the window because of TCU’s change at offensive coordinator.
Kendal Briles left for the same position at South Carolina, and head coach Sonny Dykes brought in former UConn coordinator Gordon Sammis to run the offense.
Sammis did a nice job with the Huskies under Jim Mora, but he runs a pro-style system that plays right into Belichick’s hand.
Take a look at the rate TCU and UConn running backs carried the ball into stacked boxes last year, via data from Sports Info Solutions:
- TCU: 38%, ranked 35th
- UConn: 71%, ranked 131st
Since Sammis’ favored formations allow defenses to stack the box at a high rate, TCU loses the biggest advantage it had over Belichick’s defense last year.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Belichick’s defense stacked the box 32% above expected against the run, the nation’s 16th-highest rate.
Due to Belichick’s unwillingness to adapt, TCU's run game eviscerated the Tar Heel defense, as its running backs gained 242 yards on 30 carries out of 11 personnel formations (8.1 yards per attempt).
However, Sammis’ running backs only carried the ball out of 11 personnel 34% of the time last season.
This should concern TCU in this matchup, because when Belichick stacked the box in appropriate situations, his defense was relatively strong.
Opposing running backs gained just 3.6 yards per attempt out of 12 personnel against North Carolina, ranked 24th in the country.
Despite these concerns about the matchup in the run game, TCU might still control this game due to Sammis’ tendency to lean on the pass.
According to Campus2Canton, UConn had a pass rate 8.7% above expected based on situational data.
TCU also appears to have the right quarterback for Sammis’ pro-style system in Jaden Craig, a transfer out of Harvard.
Although Craig is not a serious threat on the move, he demonstrated a decent ability to avoid negative plays, only taking a sack on 14% of his dropbacks versus pressure according to PFF.
The jump up in competition is a concern, but North Carolina’s defense ranked 118th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated last year, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Tar Heels only made one notable portal addition at edge rusher, adding Richmond’s Donovan Hoilette Jr.
That means the pass-rush unit is unlikely to make a substantial leap.
Although Craig is expected to be a serviceable quarterback for the Horned Frogs, it is unclear whether he has the weapons at receiver to lead a high-powered offense.
Last year at UConn, Sammis relied on a quick passing attack, often getting the ball in the hands of Skyler Bell on screens and other short routes.
Jordan Dwyer is TCU’s most experienced receiver, but he is more of a downfield threat.
6-foot-3 South Alabama transfer Jeremy Scott fits a similar profile.
Major Everhart and Ed Small are expected to compete for snaps in the slot, potentially playing a role similar to Bell at UConn, but the two combined to run just 168 routes a season ago.
It’s also worth noting Dwyer was dealing with an injury this offseason and missed the majority of training camp.
Given TCU’s lack of experience on offense, there’s a chance North Carolina’s secondary holds up well despite the lack of pass rush.
Even when the Tar Heels failed to generate pressure last year, they still only allowed 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 29th in the country, per Sports Info Solutions.
North Carolina’s secondary should remain strong due to returning cornerbacks Kaleb Cost and Jaiden Patterson.
Click Here to Read the Rest of Ryan McCrystal's Game Analysis
Finding the Best Number
The margins in sports betting are razor thin, so finding the best number is of the utmost importance.
That is especially true in college football, where key numbers are a little less important than in the NFL.
There is also less betting volume, which means the numbers are not quite as sharp.
That is especially true when looking at smaller schools and conferences.
All of that leads to bigger differences between lines at the top sportsbooks in college football, which makes shopping for the best line even more important.
Use our College Football Odds tool at the top of this page to find the best game lines, totals, and moneylines for the top college football games every week.
