There are just three games left in the 2025 NFL season, and two of them are played this weekend: the AFC and NFC Championship games.
Below are three prop bets for this weekend.
NFC Championship Game Prediction: Kenneth Walker III Under 20.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
With fellow Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet going down with a torn ACL, some may think that Walker will simply step in and get a bunch of carries, but I wouldn’t be so sure.
Walker hasn’t had more than 19 carries in any game this season.
Yes, it was a 51.2%-40.3% split between Walker and Charbonnet this season, including the playoffs, but there were two games where Charbonnet either didn’t play or wasn’t on the field much.
Walker still didn’t reach 20 carries in either of those games (Week 3 and the Divisional Round).
Charbonnet didn’t play in Week 3, and Walker III had 16 carries for 38 yards and averaged 2.4 yards per carry.
In the NFC Divisional Round, Charbonnet did log 5 carries, but Walker had 19 carries.
He hit that carry total because he was highly efficient, rushing for 6.1 yards per carry, and the Seahawks beat the 49ers by 35 points.
Of course, without Charbonnet on the field, Walker III has handled 85.7% of the Seahawks’ running back carries, but he’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry or fewer in eight games this season.
He also averaged 3.4 yards per carry or fewer three times between Weeks 14 and Week 18.
Walker has shown to be much more than a pure runner, too.
When Charbonnet isn’t on the field, he’s second on the team in target share at just under 16%.
I believe he’ll be used in the passing game while a committee of backs helps spell Walker’s workload in the running game.
Finally, only one running back all season has had 21 carries or more against the Rams: Bijan Robinson, who had 22 in a blowout win over the Rams in Week 17.
Even with Charbonnet out, I’m taking the under on the rushing attempts total.
NFC Championship Game Prediction: Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (-113)
As everyone knows, Nacua is a massive part of the Rams offense, leading the team in target share at 29.3%.
He’s caught 144 passes on 194 targets across 18 games.
Not only that, but he’s caught 8 passes or more in nine games and has gotten close with 7 catches in four other games.
Against the Seahawks, he caught 7 passes in Week 11 and followed that up with his best game of the season in Week 16, catching 12 of 16 passes for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Of course, fellow wide receiver Davante Adams didn’t play in Week 16, so that helped.
Even in Week 11, though, Adams and Nacua were tied for the team lead in target share at 29.6%, and Adams caught just 1 of 8 passes while Nacua caught 7 of 8.
Adams entered the postseason coming off a hamstring injury, and thus far, Nacua leads the Rams in target share at 34.1%, catching 15 passes for 167 yards, while Adams has caught 7 passes on 19 targets.
Going further with the target share conversation, the Seahawks primarily play Cover 3 and Cover 6.
Against those coverages, Nacua leads the team with a 33.9% target share.
Adams is second at 15.2%.
That also comes despite Adams running slightly more routes (78%) than Nacua (77.4%) on those dropbacks.
With this being their third meeting and with the season on the line, I expect Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to look more toward his trusted wide receiver.
I expect Nacua to be peppered with targets once again.
AFC Championship Game Prediction: Drake Maye Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-102)
Heading into the AFC Championship game, Maye has finished with 6 rush attempts or fewer in 10 games.
He’s also finished with 6 carries or fewer in seven of his last nine games.
Maye has been a great runner, though, rushing 117 times (including the playoffs) for 526 yards (4.5 yards per carry) and 4 rushing scores.
However, when he’s pressured, Maye has run just 35 times, though the yards per carry average is much higher (7.7 yards per carry).
This is important because his opponent, the Denver Broncos, are second in the NFL in pressures with 292.
I don’t expect Maye to be pressured on every dropback, of course, but this season, when pressured, Maye hasn’t run more than 4 times in any game.
He’s also finished with 1 carry or fewer per game when pressured 9 times.
Not only that, but opposing quarterbacks average 4.6 carries per game against the Broncos, and there have been 4 quarterbacks all year to run 7 times or more against them: Justin Fields, Marcus Mariota, Trey Lance, and Josh Allen.
So, not only is it a small sample, but three of those four quarterbacks aren’t great passers and are likely create more value and have better playmaking ability with their legs, and I’m not referring to Allen.
I’ll take the under at 6.5 carries.
It could end up being close, but I expect Maye to utilize his running backs a bit more and try to avoid putting himself in harm’s way and potentially cause a turnover.