Week 11 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the New England Patriots host the New York Jets.
Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 11, starting with a player in that Thursday night game.
Week 11 Prediction: Drake Maye Under 0.5 INTs (-167)
While Maye has been on a bit of an interception streak, throwing 1 in each of his last three games with 5 on the season, I’ll take the under.
Yes, he’s been a bit sporadic, throwing 1 interception against the Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Still, the Jets are dealing with some notable injuries and have traded away prominent defenders.
Before the trade deadline, the Jets traded away cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.
Sauce was excellent pass coverage, and Williams provided some pressure while also excelling in the run game.
Now, heading into this game, they may be without edge rusher Will McDonald IV (questionable), who leads the team in pressures with 23.
Speaking of pressures, the Jets generate the fewest in the league with 89 total this season.
When kept clean in the pocket, Maye is completing 78.6% of his passes for 15 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and has 4 turnover-worthy plays.
The Jets haven’t intercepted a single pass all season, and they’ve only dropped 3.
The Jets’ pass coverage unit has also collectively allowed a 68.2% reception rate.
Although Maye has some statistics that point toward a possible interception, such as his recent run of them, the Jets are without numerous prominent defensive players, either via trade or injury, and Maye shouldn’t have much of an issue against them.
Not only that, but the Patriots are 12.5 or 13-point favorites depending on where you look.
Will he even need to throw the ball that much?
The odds don’t provide a ton of value at -167, but it’s a safe bet.
Week 11 Prediction: Rashee Rice Under 8.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
I always enjoy investigating these wide receiver rushing props, and for this one, I’m taking the under on Rice at 8.5.
Over the last two Chiefs games, Weeks 8 and 9, Rice did clear this number once.
He ran twice in Week 8 for 12 yards.
In Week 9, he followed that up with 2 carries for 6 yards.
Part of this has been creative playcalling, to be sure, but also the Chiefs' running game out of the backfield is simply not effective.
In Week 11, running back Isiah Pacheco is questionable and hasn’t practiced this week.
If he were to suit up, I’d feel even more confident in the under.
This season, the Broncos are allowing just 2.2 rushing yards per game to receivers, which is 22nd in the NFL.
In all, they’ve allowed 22 rushing yards on 6 carries.
In Week 10, Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker had 1 carry and 7 yards.
This season, only one receiver has hit 9 rushing yards, and that was Chimere Dike of the Tennessee Titans in Week 1.
Digging into the carries against the Broncos further, 5 of the 6 have come in the first quarter.
As for Rice’s carries in Week 8 specifically, he had a seven-yard run in the second quarter in the red zone that was initially ruled a touchdown, but called back to the one-yard line.
The other came in the third quarter on a five-yard run.
Speaking of the red zone, the Broncos allow just 2.4 yards per carry in the red zone.
Of course, that’s comprised of running backs, but they certainly tighten up against running plays down there.
Rice is a unique weapon that can pick this up with one jet sweep, but 9 rushing yards is too high for me to feel comfortable taking the over.
Week 11 Prediction: Davis Mills Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-165)
It looks like Mills is in line to start once again in Week 11 for the concussed C.J. Stroud, and his opponent this week will be none other than the Tennessee Titans, a team the Texans beat 26-0 earlier this season.
Over his career against the Titans, Mills has three starts and has been subbed on in one game, which happened last season in the first quarter.
In those contests, he has completed 61.6% of his passes for 759 yards (6.8 yards per attempt), 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
In that appearance last season, he completed 12 of 22 passes for 128 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions.
This season, the Titans play Cover 3 more than anything else — 28% of opposing quarterback dropbacks.
Over his career, Mills has completed 67% of his passes against that coverage, but he has just 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 324 attempts.
That works out to about 46 attempts per passing touchdown.
Across 27 starts, Mills has reached 2 touchdowns or more in just 12 games.
Additionally, the Titans are allowing just 1.56 passing touchdowns per game, and four out of nine signal-callers have thrown 1 or fewer.
Look for the Texans defense to make the Titans offense inept once again and for Mills not to really have to do too much in this one for the Texans to get the win on the road.