In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Consider the over on David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop
Against a struggling Green Bay Packers run defense, take the over on David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop.
David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop, current line:
- Take the over 65.5 yards or lower
The Packers are coming off a game in which they surrendered 363 yards on the ground to the Philadelphia Eagles, but that performance was not an isolated incident.
Miles Sanders ran for 143 yards in that game and was the sixth consecutive starting running back to hit the over on his rushing yards prop against Green Bay.
Green Bay’s issue is a lack of disruption up front.
The Packers have contacted opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 39% of carries, the fifth-lowest rate, per TruMedia.
In their Week 2 matchup, the Bears successfully exploited this weakness in Green Bay’s defense, as Montgomery and Khalil Herbert were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 16% of their attempts 一 the Packers’ lowest rate of the year.
Although Montgomery is capable of fighting through early contact, he greatly benefits from clear running lanes based on this data from TruMedia:
Yards Before Contact Yds/Att % of Att for 10+ Yds 0 or Fewer YBC 1.7 3% 1+ YBC 5.6 15%
In that Week 2 matchup against Green Bay, Montgomery ran for 122 yards, with a season-high 2.1 yards before contact per attempt.
Justin Fields’s health will also be a factor in this game 一 he missed last week’s action with a shoulder injury 一 but it shouldn’t affect our confidence in Montgomery.
Last week against the Jets, the Bears used an even run-pass split (28 plays apiece) with Trevor Siemian at quarterback, and Montgomery finished with 79 yards on 14 carries.
Consider the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop
This will be Nick Chubb’s easiest matchup of the season 一 take the over on Chubb’s longest rush prop.
Nick Chubb’s longest rush prop, current line:
- Take the over at 20.5 yards or lower
Chubb has broken off a run of at least 20 yards in nine of 11 games this season and 13 of his last 15 contests dating back to 2021.
The Houston Texans are arguably the worst run defense in the league and have surrendered a run of at least 20 yards to seven different running backs.
Houston’s issue is a tendency to allow gaping holes at the line of scrimmage.
The Texans have allowed running backs to pick up at least three yards before contact on 29% of their attempts, the league’s fourth-highest rate per TruMedia.
Consider the under on Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop
The Dallas Cowboys defense looks like a bad matchup for the Indianapolis Colts, so take the under on Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop.
Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop, current line:
- Take the under at 228.5 yards or higher
Ryan has struggled against pressure this season, and faces a Dallas defense leading the league with a 44% pressure rate generated per TruMedia.
Perhaps more importantly, the Cowboys lead the league with a 42% pressure rate without the blitz.
Take a look at Ryan’s numbers when pressured on non-blitzes, via TruMedia:
- 56% completion rate
- 5.6 yards per attempt
- 1 touchdown, 6 interceptions
- 20% sack rate
If Dallas is able to get consistent pressure on Ryan without needing to send extra pass-rushers, it looks like it will be a long day for the Colts quarterback.
It’s also worth noting, passing yard unders have been a winner in nine of 11 games against the Cowboys.
Consider the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop
If left tackle Terron Armstead is unable to suit up, take the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards against the San Francisco 49ers.
Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop, current line:
- Take the under at 265.5 yards or higher
Tua and his receivers get all the attention, but Armstead has a case for MVP of the Miami Dolphins’ offense.
Take a look at Miami’s pressure rate allowed this season, based on data from TruMedia/PFF:
- With Armstead on the field: 26%
- Without Armstead: 54%
After Armstead’s injury last week, Tagovailoa was pressured six times on 11 snaps with four sacks 一 the loss of their left tackle completely derailed an offense that had been lighting up the scoreboard to that point.
Brandon Shell stepped in for Armstead with Greg Little also taking some snaps, and both have filled in at left tackle at various points this season.
According to TruMedia, there have been 51 players with at least 50 snaps in pass protection at left tackle 一 Shell and Little rank 50th and 51st in pressure rate allowed.
Here are the pressure rate numbers for Miami’s left tackles:
- Armstead: 3.8%
- Little: 18.6%
- Shell: 21.6%
The 49ers’ defense ranks 16th in pressure rate generated and should be able to exploit this weakness if Armstead is unable to play.