Week 14 is here, and so too is the final week of bye weeks.
Here, I’ll look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 14, including a rookie quarterback.
Week 14 Prediction: Kirk Cousins Over 1+ INT (-108)
Heading into this game, the Seattle Seahawks are second in the NFL in interceptions with 13, averaging 1.08 per game.
They’ve intercepted a pass in seven games this season, and last week they picked off 4 passes from Minnesota Vikings quarterback Max Brosmer.
As for Cousins, he’s made three starts this season and has 1 interception and 2 turnover-worthy plays.
Additionally, he hasn't been great under pressure in the last two seasons.
Under pressure in that timeframe, he has a completion percentage of 51.9% with 5 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 15 turnover-worthy plays.
The Seahawks are first in the NFL in pressures with 214.
In fact, they’re the only team with more than 200.
Finally, let’s examine how Cousins has performed against the coverages the Seahawks most often play: Cover 3 and Cover 6.
Dating back to 2024, here are his numbers against these coverages:
- Against Cover 3: 121 of 177 (68.4%) for 1,348 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.
- Against Cover 6: 28 of 36 (77.8%) for 279 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks.
That’s a combined line of 3 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions.
So, he has a 0.4 TD/INT ratio across 228 dropbacks.
Not only that, but the Falcons are underdogs, so he’ll be in a position to have to throw more.
An interception is coming.
Week 14 Prediction: Chase Brown Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
It’s been a rough season for the Bengals overall, but one thing is for certain: Brown is the lead back in this offense, and it’s not particularly close.
Over the course of this season, he’s received 73.7% of the running back carries.
He’s also had 49 rushing yards or more in each of his last three games and in four of his last five.
Opposing running backs are averaging 22.1 carries for 113.3 rushing yards, 5.1 yards per carry, and 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game against the Buffalo Bills.
This has been a massive area of weakness for the AFC East squad, and Brown heads into this game averaging 5.2 yards per carry or better in each of his last three games.
The Bills have allowed 11 running backs to run for 49 yards or more, and of those, four have run for 106 yards or more.
The Bengals are road underdogs, but in those situations, Brown has still gotten 70% of the Bengals’ running back carries.
In games where the Bengals are simply underdogs, he’s run for 541 yards on 111 carries.
Add in the road team qualifier, and he’s still posted a respectable line of 62 carries for 262 yards (4.2 yards per carry).
Sticking with that theme, Brown has run for 49 yards or more in each of his last two road games where the Bengals were underdogs.
He ran 15 times for 78 yards against the Baltimore Ravens and 18 times for 99 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bengals called a run play just 41.3% of the time last week, but in a game like this, where you’ll want to keep the Bills and quarterback Josh Allen off the field against a horrendous Bengals defense, running the ball with Brown against an extremely beatable run defense could be an excellent game plan.
Week 14 Prediction: Cam Ward Under 0.5 Passing TDs (+132)
As soon as I saw this prop had “+” odds, I immediately began investigating, and I’m absolutely all in on this prop bet for Week 14.
This season, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft has completed 246 of 412 passes (59.7%) for 2,351 yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.
Now, this week, he’ll take on a stout Browns defense that most plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.
Here’s how Ward has done against those:
- Against Cover 1: 29 of 61 (47.5%) for 348 yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
- Against Cover 3: 89 of 135 (65.9%) for 887 yards, 6.6 yards per attempt, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
From there, I wanted to check in on how he does against pressure.
Against pressure:
- 48 of 118 (40.7%) for 598 yards, 5.1 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.
Not only that, but he’s had 0 touchdown passes in five games this season.
While the Browns allow 1.42 passing touchdowns per game, there have been two games where the opposing quarterback hasn’t thrown one.
To be fair, though, it’s not often quarterbacks have just 7 touchdown passes in Week 14.
The numbers against pressure are concerning because over the last three weeks, the Browns have led the league in pressures with 58, and Myles Garrett is hunting the sack record.
This doesn’t mesh well for a Titans team that’s seventh in pressures allowed with 177.
Again, this is a tough Browns defense, and it wouldn’t be at all shocking to see the Browns shut Ward down.
Furthermore, I don’t expect the Browns to have a big enough lead that would prompt throwing more than usual to attempt to keep up.
At +132 odds, definitely take a chance.