Week 15 is here, and bye weeks are in the rear-view mirror.
Here, I’ll look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 15, including a rookie quarterback.
Week 15 Prediction: Cam Ward Over 0.5 Passing TDs (-224)
Last week, I picked Ward to finish with 0 touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns, and he finished with 2.
This week, he has a much better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers have just 146 pressures this season, which is the fifth-fewest in the NFL.
When they pressure opposing quarterbacks, they have allowed 4 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
When Ward is kept clean, he’s thrown 7 of his 9 passing touchdowns this season.
Furthermore, the 49ers use a mix of coverages, with the top ones being Cover 1, Cover 3, and Cover 4.
Over his last four games, Ward has thrown 3 touchdowns against those.
The 49ers' defense has also given up at least 1 passing touchdown in nearly every game this season, with Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks being the only exception.
In fact, the 49ers allow 1.77 passing touchdowns per game, which is fifth-most in the NFL.
The player on the Titans' side I’ll be watching in this game is rookie wide receiver Chimere Dike.
Against those three coverages mentioned before, Dike has caught 26 passes on 39 targets for 117 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Additionally, Elic Ayomanor has caught 21 passes for 265 yards and a score.
The 49ers have allowed 7 touchdowns to wide receivers over their last six games.
Something else worth mentioning is that, in Week 13, before their bye week, the 49ers allowed a passing touchdown to Browns rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders in his first NFL start.
Ward has been playing better lately, and with the Titans listed at close to a 2-touchdown underdog, I expect him to throw plenty.
Week 15 Prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (-122)
The Patriots have used a running back by committee approach this season, with TreVeyon Henderson at 45.7% of the running back carries, followed by Stevenson at 35.8% and other players like Antonio Gibson, Terrell Jennings, and D’Ernest Johnson at 8.9% or less.
Of course, Gibson is out for the season, so it’s really been Stevenson and Henderson.
Over Henderson’s last five games, he’s gotten more work at 52.1% of the running back carries compared to Henderson’s 41.3%.
Stevenson is not explosive whatsoever.
In those five games, he ran 63 times for 185 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry.
Only 25.4% of his runs went for five yards or more, and 4.8% went for 10 yards or more.
He also managed just 0.24 yards before contact per rush.
Looking at his three most recent games, he’s run 32 times for 79 yards, which is 2.5 yards per carry.
In the Patriots’ 26-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12, he ran 6 times for 5 yards.
Against the Bills earlier this season in the Patriots’ 23-20 win, Stevenson did score twice, sure, but he had just 7 carries for 14 yards.
Not to mention, the Bills’ run defense has been better lately, facing 18 or fewer carries to running backs over the last two weeks and allowing 3.41 yards per carry or worse.
This game has a lot of stakes, including the Bills trying to chip away at the Patriots’ lead in the AFC East and the Patriots holding onto the division and the No. 1 overall seed.
Giving Stevenson carries is harming the football team, whereas with Henderson, he’s run 48 times for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns over his last three games.
Last week against the Giants, he averaged north of 6 yards per carry.
Stevenson takes a backseat in this massive game.
Week 15 Prediction: Keon Coleman Over 1.5 Receptions (-197)
While the odds on this prop may not be fantastic, I’m not sure how you pass it up.
This season, Coleman has had 2 catches or more in every game he has been active, even after he was benched for off-field behavior.
Over his last two games, he’s caught 4 passes on 6 targets and has even scored a touchdown.
As for the Patriots' defense, there’s been just one occasion all season where a player has been targeted twice or more and caught 1 pass or fewer, and that was back in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins and their wide receiver Malik Washington.
Coleman has a 14.7% target share this season, which is second-highest on the team and, again, that figure includes missing two games due to being benched.
While he’s boasted a 12% target share over the last two weeks, that also includes a massive performance from tight end Dawson Knox, who caught 6 passes for 93 yards last week.
For context, he hasn’t had 6 receptions in a game since Week 15 of the 2022 season against the Dolphins.
In the matchup earlier this season against the Patriots, Coleman caught 4 passes on 7 targets for 23 yards and a touchdown.
Looking at the Patriots’ coverages, they play a mix of them, but looking at the ones in which opposing quarterbacks have faced it on more than 100 dropbacks (Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3), Coleman has 36 receptions on the season.
Snag this while you can with a line of 1.5 receptions.