In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Consider the under on Mac Jones’s interceptions prop
The New England Patriots conservative offensive approach is designed around limiting mistakes, giving us a good opportunity to bet the under on Mac Jones’s interception prop.
Mac Jones’s interceptions prop, current line:
- Take the under at 0.5 interceptions or higher
Early in the season, the Patriots tried to open up the offense, with Jones throwing downfield at a decent rate. During his first three starts, however, Jones threw five interceptions and New England bailed on that plan.
Take a look at the rate at which Jones’s passes do not cross the line of scrimmage, via TruMedia:
- First three starts: 16%, fifth lowest rate
- Since return from injury: 31%, league’s highest rate
Since his return from injury, Jones’s primary responsibility is to protect the ball and he should be able to accomplish that against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders have just four interceptions this year 一 and while interceptions can rise and fall with an element of luck, there’s evidence this low total has been earned.
According to Sports Info Solutions, when teams throw past the line of scrimmage against the Raiders, they have a ball-hawk rate (rate of making a play on the ball) of just 7.3%, the league’s third-worst mark.
So in this matchup, we have a quarterback who rarely throws downfield and a defense unlikely to play the ball when he does 一 a great opportunity to bet the under on Jones’s interception prop.
Consider the under on Latavius Murray’s longest rush
This prop was a winner for us last week, so let’s go back to the well and take the under on Latavius Murray’s longest rush.
Latavius Murray’s longest rush prop, current line:
- Take the under 10.5 yards or higher
Murray is among the least explosive running backs in the league, gaining 10 or more yards on just 6.3% of his carries 一 only his former teammate Melvin Gordon has a lower rate, per TruMedia.
Even when Murray is able to avoid contact in the backfield, he still struggled to break off long runs, gaining 10 or more yards on just 7.9% of his attempts 一 well below the league average of 14%.
The Arizona Cardinals run defense is nothing special but it should be able to contain Murray.
According to TruMedia, Arizona creates contact at or behind the line of scrimmage on 45% of running back carries (league average is 44%) and allows three or more yards before contact on 25% of attempts (league average is 24%).
Consider the over on Adam Thielen’s receptions prop
This is another prop we played (and won) last week and it looks like a favorable matchup again 一 take the over on Adam Thielen’s receptions against the Indianapolis Colts.
Adam Thielen’s receptions prop, current line:
- Take the over 4.5 receptions or lower
The Vikings disproportionately feed the ball to Thielen versus single-high coverage, which creates more opportunities on the outside of the field.
Take a look at Thielen’s target share by coverage type, via TruMedia/PFF:
- Versus two-high safeties: 15%
- Versus single-high safety: 24%
Although the Colts don’t use single-high coverage to the extreme degree of a team like the Patriots, Indy has used it over 50% of the time in all but one game this season.
Take a look at Thielen’s production in six games in which the defense used single-high coverage on at least 50% of Minnesota’s dropbacks:
- 6 receptions on 8 targets versus Detroit
- 8 receptions on 9 targets versus New Orleans
- 4 receptions on 8 targets versus Miami
- 6 receptions on 7 targets versus Arizona
- 9 receptions on 10 targets versus New England
- 7 receptions on 8 targets versus Detroit (last week)
That’s six or more receptions in five of the six games, which makes it an easy choice to take the over on Thielen’s receptions prop, which has consistently been available at 4.5 or lower.
Consider the over on Christian McCaffrey’s receiving yards prop
The loss of Deebo Samuel will alter the San Francisco 49ers offense and gives us an opportunity to bet the over on Christian McCaffrey’s receiving yards prop.
Christian McCaffrey’s receiving yards prop, current line:
- 39.5 yards at BetMGM
The line on McCaffrey’s receiving yards is surprisingly unchanged despite San Francisco losing Samuel. This prop was available at 38.5 yards last week and has been available between 35.5 and 39.5 since he joined the Niners.
The lack of a line shift is surprising considering McCaffrey’s usage and how it has shifted without Samuel on the field.
Since San Francisco acquired McCaffrey, 49ers quarterbacks have attempted 61 passes without Samuel on the field 一 McCaffrey leads the team with a 30% target share on those plays, per TruMedia.
When Samuel is on the field during that span, McCaffrey has seen a 15% target share.
Although McCaffrey had just two receptions for 34 yards last week, the larger trend indicates he’s likely to see elevated usage in the pass game while Samuel is out.