Week 16 is here, and there are several massively important games, including the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams.
With that in mind, I’ll provide my three best prop bets for this week's action.
Week 16 Prediction: Philip Rivers Over 17.5 Pass Completions (-109)
I was actually somewhat surprised to see his pass completions line at 17.5.
You heard it 100 times leading up to the Week 15 game, but Rivers hadn’t played in five years before last week, is 44 years old, and was on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
He completed 18 of 27 passes (66.7%) for 120 yards (4.4 yards per attempt) for 1 touchdown, and he threw 1 interception when they had less than 20 seconds left to get down the field.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t expect Rivers to light up the stat sheet for 300 yards, but the offense is based around short completions, making it third-and-manageable, and running the ball.
Rivers also spread the ball out fairly well, completing five passes to Ameer Abdullah and three to Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman, and Josh Downs.
Rivers’ opponent this week, the San Francisco 49ers, mostly plays Cover 3 and Cover 4.
Against Cover 3 last week, Rivers completed 4 of 6 passes.
The 49ers could play more man coverage, but again, 62.9% of his pass attempts were either behind the line of scrimmage or no deeper than 9 yards downfield.
Finally, I know Rivers is a unique case given his age and only one game under his belt in five years, but opposing quarterbacks average 23.57 completions per game against the 49ers.
This season, only one quarterback has completed 16 passes or fewer against the 49ers, and that was Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold in Week 1 when he had 16 completions on 23 attempts.
It may not be pretty, but Rivers will reach at least 18 completions.
Week 16 Prediction: Jeremy Ruckert Over 1.5 Receptions (-145)
It’s confirmed: Brady Cook will be the starting quarterback once again for the Jets in Week 16 on the road against the New Orleans Saints.
Last week, in a 48-20 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cook completed 22 of 33 passes for 176 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.
While the Saints offense won’t be nearly as potent as the Jaguars, the Jets will still be playing from behind.
Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has been playing well, completing 70% of his passes from Week 10 on.
This all matters to Ruckert, as Cook will have to continue throwing the ball, and the conditions will be fine, just like last week in Jacksonville, as this will be played in a dome.
Against the Jaguars, Ruckert caught 2 passes on 2 targets for 13 yards.
The Saints allow 5.07 receptions per game to opposing tight ends.
There are a few other important variables to consider:
Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard caught 1 pass on 2 targets for 6 yards last week. He’s since been released.
Ruckert just signed a two-year, $10 million extension.
Fellow tight end Mason Taylor has yet to practice this week and missed last week's game.
Without Taylor on the field, Ruckert was the only tight end on the Jets to see any targets.
Fresh off the extension with no Taylor on the field, Lazard released, and against a team that the Jets will be trailing against, resulting in Cook needing to throw, Ruckert should catch a couple of passes once again.
Week 16 Prediction: Quinn Ewers Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-193)
This line of touchdown passes is actually quite surprising.
I get it: The Bengals are completely terrible, allowing 255.93 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.
But there’s a key metric in there, which is that the Bengals allow exactly 2 passing touchdowns per game.
Thus, if you were to take the over, you’d be wagering that Ewers, a seventh-round rookie quarterback who had issues with keeping his job when he was in college, will be able to come in and throw multiple touchdowns against an NFL defense.
Again, I know the Bengals are terrible, but they have held five quarterbacks to 1 passing touchdown or fewer.
Those quarterbacks include Joe Flacco, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Drake Maye, and Lamar Jackson.
While Ewers is a different quarterback than the guy he’s replacing, Tua Tagovailoa, it’s worth mentioning that Dolphins pass catchers have only scored 4 times this season against Cover 3.
The Bengals play Cover 3 far more than anything else, as opposing quarterbacks have seen it on 171 dropbacks.
The next closest is Cover 1 (96 dropbacks) and Cover 6 (94 dropbacks).
Sure, there’s a chance Ewers could dump the ball off to De’Von Achane, and he could take it to the house.
Or maybe wide receiver Jaylen Waddle outruns defenders.
But multiple touchdown passes is asking quite a lot of Ewers in this spot, regardless of the defense he’s playing against.
Here’s another fun fact: In his final season with Texas, Ewers had 1 passing touchdown or fewer in three of his final five games.
His opponents were Texas A&M, Clemson, and Georgia.
Don’t take the over, no matter how bad the Bengals defense is.