Best Over/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 16

In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.

This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.

Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.

Join the Sharp Football Newsletter
Get NFL insights & analysis

Consider the over on Derrick Henry’s longest rush prop

We’ve won three weeks in a row betting on longest rush overs against the Houston Texans, so take the over on Derrick Henry’s longest rush prop on Saturday.   

Derrick Henry’s longest rush prop, current line:

  • Take the over at 17.5 or lower

According to TruMedia, 78% of carries of 15 or more yards occur with at least three yards before contact 一 and this is why the Texans have been a friendly defense for longest rush overs. 

Houston allows three or more yards before contact to running backs on 28% of carries, the third highest rate in the league. 

Take a look at the longest rushes allowed by Houston over the last three weeks:

  • Isiah Pacheco 18 yards
  • Tony Pollard: 18 yards
  • Ezekiel Elliott: 25 yards
  • Nick Chubb: 21 yards

Henry has picked up 15 or more yards on 4.7% of his carries, slightly above the league average of 4.6%. 

Over his last five games, Henry has hit the over on his longest rush only once, but we shouldn’t be concerned about that trend against Houston. In fact, it may work to our advantage by lowering the number. 

Consider the under on Brian Robinson’s longest rush prop

Against a tough San Francisco 49ers defense, take the under on Brian Robinson’s longest rush prop on Saturday.   

Brian Robinson’s longest rush prop, current line:

  • Take the under at 14.5 or higher

This recommendation is mostly based on the 49ers defense. Take a look at some key numbers for the 49ers versus running backs, via TruMedia:

  • Allowed 15 or more yards on 2.5% of carries, ranked second
  • Allowed three or more yards before contact on 18% of carries, ranked third

Robinson has been more explosive as of late, breaking off a run of at least 16 yards in three straight games. However, those games were against the New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons 一 two friendly run defenses. 

Prior to this recent stretch, Robinson had topped 15 yards only twice in seven games. 

When provided two or fewer yards before contact, Robinson has gained 15 or more yards just once in 128 attempts. So a defense like San Francisco, which creates early contact, is likely to cause problems for the Washington run game.

With the 49ers favored by seven points, it’s also possible the game script limits Robinson’s touches, further diminishing the odds of him breaking off a long run. 

Consider the under on D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop

The Detroit Lions run defense is improving, which makes this a good opportunity to take the under on D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop on Saturday.   

D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop, current line:

  • Take the under at 56.5 or higher

Foreman is coming off a performance of 10 carries for nine yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but this recommendation is based on the Lions defense more than Foreman’s recent outing. 

Take a look at these impressive numbers for Detroit’s defense since Week 10:

  • 3.2 yards per attempt allowed to running backs, ranked third
  • Contacting ball carrier at or behind LOS on 50% of carries, ranked fifth
  • Allowing three or more yards before contact on 16% of attempts, ranked second

During that span, the Lions have held Dalvin Cook to 23 yards on 15 carries and Saquon Barkley to 22 yards on 15 carries. 

The weather in Carolina doesn’t look great 一 mid-30s with light winds 一 but that shouldn’t be enough to severely limit passing. So there does not appear to be a risk of losing this bet based on an extreme run-heavy game plan for the Panthers. 

Consider the under on Mac Jones’s interceptions prop

We played this last week and won, so let’s go back to the well and take the under on Mac Jones’s interceptions prop on Saturday.   

Mac Jones’s interceptions prop, current line:

Based on their playcalling, the Patriots appear to have lost faith in Jones. Since his return from injury in Week 7, 30% of his pass attempts do not cross the line of scrimmage, the league’s second-highest rate per TruMedia. 

Prior to his injury 一 a span during which he threw five interceptions in three games 一 only 16% of Jones’s passes failed to cross the line of scrimmage, the fifth lowest rate. 

Since his return, Jones has thrown three interceptions in eight games and it can mostly be attributed to the coaching staff simply not letting him put the ball in harm’s way.

Get up to $1,000 First Bet Offer
For new customers to BetMGM