Best Over/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 17

In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.

Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.

This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.

Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.

Consider the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop

This prop has been easy money this season, so take the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush against the Dallas Cowboys.

Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop, current line:

Jahmyr Gibbs has broken off a run of at least 20 yards in seven of his last nine games, yet this prop has consistently been available well below that number. 

Although the Cowboys have one of the league’s toughest defenses, this appears to be a matchup-proof prop. 

Just last week, we played and won with this prop against the Minnesota Vikings, the NFL’s stingiest defense when it comes to allowing long runs. Per TruMedia, Minnesota allows 15 or more yards on just 1.3% of carries by running backs, the league’s lowest rate.

Still, Gibbs ripped off an 18-yard run to hit the over. 

Dallas ranks 16th in that same metric, so there’s no reason to be worried about this defensive matchup for Gibbs. 

Consider the over on DeVonta Smith’s longest reception prop

We frequently play this prop against the Arizona Cardinals, so let’s take the over on DeVonta Smith’s longest reception.

DeVonta Smith’s longest reception prop, current line:

Arizona allows a league-worst 57.6% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield, per TruMedia. For this reason, we often take longest receptions props against the Cardinals defense. 

It’s reasonable to play this prop with A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, but we’ll select Smith based on how he matches up with Arizona’s coverage scheme. 

The Cardinals use two-high safety coverages on 54% of snaps, the league’s second-highest rate per TruMedia. 

That trend bodes well for Smith’s usage, as he leads the Eagles in overall target share against two-high coverage (26%) and on downfield targets against two-high coverage (53%). 

Consider the under on Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards prop

We can’t trust Arthur Smith, so let’s take the under on Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards.

Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards prop, current line:

Due to inconsistent usage, Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards under has hit in three of his last four games. 

The under for Robinson’s rushing yards is 5-3 in Atlanta Falcons losses this year compared to 2-5 in victories. So as road underdogs against a tough Chicago Bears defense, we should bet the under. 

The Bears have contacted ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on 50% of attempts, the league’s second-highest rate per TruMedia. That’s a concerning trend for Atlanta, which is allowing early contact on 50% of attempts, ranked 27th. 

With limited room to run and potentially playing from behind, it could be a tough day for Robinson. 

Consider the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop

We’re revisiting this prop after a couple of weeks off 一 take the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop against the Minnesota Vikings.  

Jordan Love’s completions prop, current line:

After some early-season struggles, the Green Bay Packers adjusted their pass-game strategy, leaning more on short, quick passes for Jordan Love

Through his first four games, 41% of Love’s attempts were 10 or more yards downfield, but that rate has dropped to 31% since Week 5, per TruMedia. 

Against a blitz-heavy Vikings defense, that rate of short, quick passes could rise, and we should expect a high completion rate from Love as a result. 

By leaning on the blitz, the Vikings sacrifice some easy completions in an effort to generate splash plays. As a result, Minnesota allows a league-worst 70% completion rate. 

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