With three games on Christmas Day in the rear-view mirror, we now have two games on Saturday, 10 on Sunday, and one on Monday to look forward to.
On Christmas Day, I also provided three prop bets and got all three correct, so let’s hope to keep the streak alive.
Below, I’ll provide my three best prop bets for the remainder of the slate.
Week 17 Prediction: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+146)
As you likely know by now, Allen can be somewhat unpredictable when it comes to his passing performances.
We all know he’s a more than capable passer.
Still, he can have a game like last week, where he attempts just 19 passes, averages 6.8 yards per attempt, and has no touchdowns or interceptions
Of course, there are other times where he’ll complete 22 of 28 passes for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns, as he did against the Cincinnati Bengals.
That said, in this spot, getting a +146 value is worth a shot.
Allen didn’t have a passing touchdown last week, but he had three in back-to-back games before that and has had multiple touchdown passes in nine of 15 games.
Yes, he’s facing an Eagles defense that’s allowing the fewest passing touchdowns per game at 0.87.
So why this spot?
Well, if you look at who the Eagles have played, you can start to pick apart some of those opponents.
They’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in three games: Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield earlier in the season, and Dak Prescott.
Over their last four games, they’ve played a tandem of Josh Johnson and Marcus Mariota, Kenny Pickett, Justin Herbert fresh off surgery, and Caleb Williams.
Williams has made some highlight reel throws, but he’s another quarterback who’s been up and down regarding passing touchdowns
Regardless, the Bears won that game by 9 points and had a lead throughout, so throwing wasn’t as necessary.
Now, let’s dive into some numbers.
The Eagles play Cover 3 more than anything else, but Cover 1 and Cover 6 have been seen by opposing quarterbacks on 126 of their dropbacks or more.
Against those three coverages, Allen has completed 198 of 292 passes (67.8%) for 2,377 yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.
He has 25 passing touchdowns on the season, so that’s nearly half of his passing touchdown production.
That said, when you look more into the numbers, you’ll find that he’s only attempted 29 passes against Cover 6 all season and has just 1 passing touchdown, but has completed 72.4% of those passes.
Something else worth pointing out: In seven home games, Allen has multiple touchdown passes in six of them.
He plays well at home, and I believe he’ll do much better against this Eagles pass defense than most would expect.
Week 17 Prediction: C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-170)
We covered one AFC quarterback, and now we’ll look at another, but this time, I’m going under on the passing touchdowns.
Stroud has multiple touchdown passes in only four of 12 games this season, and he’s facing a Chargers defense that allows the second-fewest passing touchdowns per game at 0.93.
They’ve allowed three quarterbacks to have multiple touchdown passes against them.
Those quarterbacks were Daniel Jones when he was red-hot earlier in the season, Prescott, and Geno Smith.
Smith may seem like an outlier, and he is, but honestly, some oddities tend to occur with divisional matchups.
Still, it’s worth noting, as I’d say Stroud is objectively a better passer and quarterback than Smith.
That aside, the numbers don’t lie: Stroud struggles against the coverages the Chargers most often play, which are Cover 3 and Cover 4.
Against these, Stroud has completed 107 of 164 passes (65.2%) for 1,148 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
That amounts to close to 44% of his passing yardage production, but just 12.5% of his passing touchdowns.
In fact, he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass against either coverage since Week 3, which was more than 123 pass attempts ago.
The Chargers have been scoring some points lately, which could put the Texans in a position to have to throw more, but over the course of the season, their average scoring margin is just +3.2.
So, game plan-wise, the Texans could simply try to run the ball, play strong defense, and try to grit out a low-scoring contest.
I don’t see Stroud throwing multiple touchdown passes in this spot.
Week 17 Prediction: Tre Harris Over 1.5 Receptions (-155)
To close things out, I’m sticking with the Chargers-Texans game and taking the over on the Chargers’ rookie receivers' receptions.
Over their last four games, Harris is third on the team in target share at 16.3%, catching 11 of 16 passes for 151 yards.
He trails only Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, who are barely ahead of him, both at 20.4%.
Over the last two games, he’s second at 18.5%, catching 7 of 10 passes for 103 yards.
His target share has actually been higher than Ladd McConkey‘s.
Harris has had 2 catches or more in eight of his last 10 games.
While the Texans defense is one of the best Herbert and the Chargers will face all season, Harris has been getting more involved.
As the Chargers gear up for a playoff run, getting a downfield threat more intertwined with the offense will only be helpful.
Take the over on 1.5 catches.