Best Over/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 18

In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.

Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.

This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.

Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these props.

Consider the over on C.J. Stroud’s completions prop

Based on the Indianapolis Colts’ defensive approach, take the over on C.J. Stroud’s completions on Saturday night.

C.J. Stroud’s completions prop, current line:

The Colts have a conservative defensive approach, playing zone coverage with no blitz on a league-high 74% of snaps. It’s been a consistent approach as well, topping 50% in every game and 70% in all but two. 

This bodes well for C.J. Stroud’s completions based on these numbers from TruMedia:

  • versus no blitz/zone: 68.5% completion rate
  • all other coverages: 55.3% completion rate

The Colts’ strategy will likely force Houston into a more conservative passing attack, taking away some downfield opportunities, but open up plenty of easy throws underneath to boost the completion rate. 

Facing no blitz/zone coverage at a 75% rate in their first meeting, Stroud completed a season-high 30 passes. 

Consider the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop

The over on this prop is 9-1 in the Green Bay Packers’ last 10 games, so take the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop against the Chicago Bears.  

Jordan Love’s completions prop, current line:

Since the Packers adjusted their passing game approach, Jordan Love has been playing well and crushing the over on his completions prop. 

Early in the year, Love threw downfield at a high rate, and it resulted in an inconsistent Packers offense.

Over the last 10 games, however, just 32.8% of Love’s passes have traveled 10 or more yards downfield, which has led to a 66% completion rate in that span, per TruMedia. 

This matchup could also lead to increased pass attempts for Love. Rather than try to run into a nasty Bears defense, it would make sense to lean more heavily on Love’s efficiency in the short passing game. 

This game will be outdoors at Lambeau Field, so keep an eye on the weather. As of now, it is expected to be cold but without significant wind. 

Consider the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop

This prop just keeps on winning, so take the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush against the Minnesota Vikings.

Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush prop, current line:

For unknown reasons, this prop was unavailable for most bettors last week. This also happened to us once last year when riding a long winning streak on Nick Chubb’s longest rush. 

Hopefully, this prop returns against the Vikings, as we may get a favorable line due to Minnesota’s strong run defense. 

Minnesota allows 15 or more yards to running backs at the league’s lowest rate (1.8%), but we just saw Gibbs hit the over on this prop two weeks ago against the Vikings, giving us confidence his explosive ability is matchup-proof. 

Gibbs has a run of 18 or more yards in eight of his last 10 games, topping 20 yards in seven of those. 

Before playing this prop, keep an eye on the news out of Detroit to see how the Lions plan to handle this game. Earning the No. 2 seed is a longshot and they can finish no worse than third, so resting players or limiting snaps is a possibility. 

Consider the over on De’Von Achane’s receptions prop

Based on this matchup with the Buffalo Bills, take the over on De’Von Achane’s receptions.

De’Von Achane’s receptions prop, current line:

The Bills are likely to do everything they can to take away the Dolphins’ deep passing attack, which they did in the first meeting by playing two-high coverages on 66% of snaps, per TruMedia.

That was the Bills’ second-highest rate of two-high coverage this year, trailing only their game against the Philadelphia Eagles, another potent downfield passing attack. 

This coverage scheme should force Tua Tagovailoa to look to his receivers on underneath routes more often, including his running backs.

Take a look at the combined target share numbers for Achane and Raheem Mostert by coverage type:

  • versus two high: 15.6%
  • versus single high: 9.7%

In the last meeting between these teams, Achane and Mostert each had three receptions on five targets. 

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