Here we go: It’s Week 18, the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season.
This week, there are no Thursday Night Football or Monday Night Football games.
Instead, there are two on Saturday and 14 on Sunday.
Let's get into my three best prop bets for this slate before we head into the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.
Week 18 Prediction: Sam Darnold Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-113)
There are a few massively important games in Week 18, and one of them is the Seattle Seahawks and Darnold against the San Francisco 49ers.
The winner of this game will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
With that, I think this is going to be a slightly different game than you may expect based on these teams’ recent performances.
The 49ers have been on an offensive rampage lately, averaging 42 points per game over their last three, and the Seahawks have won six in a row and put up 27 points or more in three of their last four.
The two coverages the Seahawks play most are Cover 3 and Cover 6, and 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has just 5 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions against those.
Couple that with this being a divisional matchup and the total being at 47.5, and this may not turn into a shootout that’ll put Darnold in a position to keep pace.
Heading into this game, Darnold has thrown for 243 yards or fewer in seven of 16 games.
In one of those games, he had 244 yards.
One of his worst games of the season came against these 49ers, but to be fair to him, that was in Week 1.
He threw for just 150 yards.
Darnold is averaging about 30 dropbacks per game, and opposing quarterbacks see Cover 3 on about 40% of their dropbacks when facing the 49ers.
Against Cover 3, Darnold has had some success, averaging about 8.5 yards per dropback.
So, at a 40% rate (12 dropbacks), that’s about 102 passing yards.
I’m just not sure he’ll have enough dropbacks or attempts to get to this line.
Finally, while I cannot quantify this statistically, there’s another narrative to keep in mind: Will Darnold fall apart?
This is a crucial game, similar to the one he played for the Minnesota Vikings last season.
Take the under.
Week 18 Prediction: Shedeur Sanders Over 0.5 Passing TDs (-245)
Sanders has made six starts this season and has thrown 1 touchdown or more in six of them, including in each of his last two.
Now, he’ll face the Cincinnati Bengals defense that should allow him to show out a bit before the Cleveland Browns head into the offseason and make a decision on where to go with the quarterback position.
The Bengals are allowing 1.88 passing touchdowns per game.
They’ve allowed at least 1 touchdown pass in all but two games this season: Week 13 against a banged-up Lamar Jackson and Week 16 against Quinn Ewers in his first NFL start.
In fact, they’ve allowed more multi-passing touchdown games than they have those with one or fewer.
Sanders is without a few key options: tight ends Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku, and running back Quinshon Judkins.
His top weapon will be wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who has only 2 touchdowns this season, but they’ve both come against the coverage the Bengals most often play.
With Joe Burrow under center for the Bengals, chances are they’ll put up some points and put the Browns and Sanders into a spot where he needs to throw.
Sanders will have 1 passing touchdown against this dreadful Bengals defense.
Week 18 Prediction: Matthew Stafford Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-200)
Before diving into my analysis, there’s something massive to consider with this prop: If the 49ers beat the Seahawks, the Rams are locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC regardless of whatever happens this week.
So, this could be a scenario where Stafford may not play the whole game.
To play devil’s advocate, though, he could stay out there to push for the MVP award.
Still, in Week 18, these are angles we need to consider.
The 49ers certainly have a chance to win, so taking the under on the line could prove even more valuable if, for example, Stafford plays only the first half.
Now let’s dive into the numbers.
These teams met in Week 14, and Stafford threw 3 touchdowns and had 281 passing yards.
However — and sure, this could happen again this week — one of Stafford’s 3 touchdowns (his 3rd) came immediately after an interception from Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett at the Cardinals’ 22-yard line.
Additionally, looking at the numbers, the Cardinals play Cover 3 and Cover 4 more than anything else.
Against these, Stafford has thrown 12 of his 42 touchdowns.
He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in three games this season, including against the Cardinals.
Something else to consider is that, while wide receiver Davante Adams didn’t catch any touchdowns, his presence on the field certainly helps open things up for the other weapons, including Puka Nacua.
Overall, there are too many things going against wagering on him hitting 3 touchdown passes: There’s a reality where he doesn’t play the whole game, Adams is questionable, 1 of his touchdowns in their last meeting came after an interception in favorable field position, and he’s never thrown 3 touchdowns in a game against Cover 3 and Cover 4.