In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming Conference Championship games.
Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Best 49ers Player Prop Bet: Miles Sanders Longest Rush
Consider the under on Miles Sanders’s longest rush prop:
The San Francisco 49ers’ run defense poses a challenge for the Philadelphia Eagles, so take the under on Miles Sanders’s longest rush prop.
Miles Sanders’s longest rush prop, current line:
We played this prop against the 49ers with Ezekiel Elliott and Kenneth Walker III in each of the last two weeks and won, and this looks like another favorable matchup for the Niners’ defense.
The longest rush the 49ers have allowed to a running back this postseason was a 10-yard gain by Tony Pollard last week.
According to TruMedia, San Francisco is allowing three or more yards before contact on 19% of carries by running backs this year (postseason included), the league’s third-lowest rate.
This is a critical rate to account for when betting longest rush props based on these league average numbers:
- 33.8% of carries with three or more yards before contact produce 10 or more yards
- 3.2% of carries with less than three yards before contact produce 10 or more yards
Sanders’s rush attempts prop is set to just 14.5, so he is not expected to see a massive workload in this game.
With a modest workload and an expectation of limited open running lanes, the under on Sanders’s longest rush looks like a strong bet.
Best Eagles Player Prop Bet: AJ Brown Total Receptions
Consider the over on A.J. Brown’s receptions prop:
If the 49ers limit the Eagles’ rushing attack, expect them to give A.J. Brown more opportunities, making the over on Brown’s receptions prop a strong bet.
A.J. Brown’s receptions prop, current line:
This line appears to be discounted due to some modest recent performances by Brown 一 he’s had four or fewer receptions in each of his last three games.
However, in those last three games, Brown has seen 10, nine, and six targets, so the workload has remained strong.
Against a defense like San Francisco, we should expect an increase for Brown, as he’s often used as an extension of the run game.
According to TruMedia, Philly has played six games in which its running backs were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on at least 50% of their carries 一 we’ll use this sample size to represent games in which the Eagles run game was bottled up.
In those six games, Brown averaged 6.3 receptions per game. In his other 12 games, he averaged 4.6 receptions.
We used the same logic to bet the over on CeeDee Lamb’s receptions last week and it was an easy win (he finished with 10 catches). There’s a good chance Brown puts up a similar stat line against San Francisco this week.
Best Bengals Player Prop Bet: Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Consider the over on Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop:
If the Kansas City Chiefs’ run defense appears to be a good matchup for Joe Mixon, so take the over on Mixon’s rushing yards.
Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop, current line:
Mixon’s rushing attempts prop is set to 14.5, which means the expectation is for him to average 3.9 yards per attempt (identical to his season average). However, the Chiefs do not have an average run defense.
Kansas City contacts running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 37% of carries, per TruMedia, the league’s third-lowest rate.
This is a critical stat for Mixon, as he’s struggled to create for himself when faced with early contact. According to TruMedia, Mixon ranks 24th in yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage (1.4 yards per attempt).
When allowed to cross the line of scrimmage without contact, however, Mixon averages 5.9 yards per carry.
Mixon did not play in the regular season meeting between these teams, but Samaje Perine picked up 106 yards on 21 carries (5.1 yards per attempt) and was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 24% of his carries.
With a similar lack of early contact in this matchup, Mixon should easily hit the over on his rushing yards.
It’s also worth noting Patrick Mahomes’s injury. If Mahomes were healthy, the possibility would exist of a Chiefs blowout victory limiting Mixon’s workload. With Mahomes limited, however, the probability of that outcome is significantly diminished.