In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.
Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these props.
Consider the over on Devin Singletary’s longest rush prop
Playing this prop against the Cleveland Browns defense has been a winning strategy this season, so let's take the over on Devin Singletary's longest rush.
Devin Singletary's longest rush prop, current line:
The Browns have arguably the league’s stingiest defense, but one glaring weakness is their tendency to give up big plays on the ground.
Cleveland is aggressive at the line of scrimmage, and it pays off with a league-high 62% rate of contact at or behind the line of scrimmage, per TruMedia.
However, that aggressive approach also leads to busts, and Cleveland allows 15 or more yards at a league-worst 9.9% rate.
Singletary picks up 15 or more yards at a rate slightly above league average (4.6%) and should be able to take advantage of the Browns' defensive miscues.
In the last meeting between these teams, Singletary ripped off a 17-yard run and has reached at least 17 yards on his longest rush in four of his last five games.
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Consider the over on David Njoku’s receptions prop
As one of Joe Flacco’s favorite targets, take the over on David Njoku’s receptions prop against the Houston Texans.
David Njoku’s receptions prop, current line:
The Texans' coverage scheme bodes well for increased usage for David Njoku.
According to TruMedia, Houston uses two-high coverage at the league’s fourth-highest rate (49%).
When both Njoku and Amari Cooper are active, Njoku is second on the Browns in target share against two-high coverage at 21.6% (Cooper is 22.5%), per TruMedia.
Given Cooper’s success against the Texans in the last matchup (11 catches for 265 yards), it would make sense for Houston to try to take him away as much as possible, likely creating more opportunities for Njoku.
Consider the over on De'Von Achane’s longest rush prop
Against a weak Kansas City Chiefs defense, take the over on De'Von Achane’s longest rush prop.
De'Von Achane’s longest rush prop, current line:
Kansas City has allowed 15 or more yards on the ground on 5.6% of carries by running backs, the league’s fifth-worst rate.
One of the Chiefs’ issues is an inability to generate early contact, as they contact ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage and the league’s second lowest rate (37%).
The Chiefs' defensive production has improved slightly down the stretch since linebacker Nick Bolton returned, but the run defense has surprisingly been worse with Bolton on the field.
Take a look at these splits with and without Bolton on the field, per TruMedia:
- with Bolton: 33% early contact rate
- without Bolton: 39% early contact rate
This is a critical trend for Achane because when he is allowed to cross the line of scrimmage without contact, he gains 15 or more yards on 14% of his carries, the league’s highest rate and more than triple the NFL average of 4.6%.
Consider the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop
The over on this prop is 10-1 in the Green Bay Packers' last 11 games, so take the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop against the Dallas Cowboys.
Jordan Love’s completions prop, current line:
We’ve been riding this prop for a few weeks now, and it continues to win without the line climbing, so it’s another easy decision this week.
After a slow start to the year, Green Bay adjusted to a more conservative passing attack, and Jordan Love has responded.
Since Week 5, only 31% of Love’s passes have been targeted 10 or more yards downfield, which has led to an increased completion rate.
Over his last 11 games, during which this prop is 10-1, Love is completing 68% of his passes with an average of 23.7 completions per game.
The Cowboys defense presents a challenge, as they allowed the second-fewest completions in the league.
However, the game script could help us out, as Dallas is favored by 7.5 points and Green Bay may be forced to lean on a pass-heavy approach to keep up.
Consider the under on Rachaad White’s rush attempts prop
The Philadelphia Eagles are three-point favorites, making this a good spot to take the under on Rachaad White’s rush attempts prop.
Rachaad White’s rush attempts, current line:
In eight Buccaneers losses, Rachaad White has topped 17 carries only once 一 and that came in a game against the Texans in which Tampa was winning for the majority of the second half.
When trailing, Tampa hands the ball off to a running back on just 28% of its plays, slightly below the league average of 29%, per TruMedia.
In the second half, that rate drops to 23%, also below the league average of 27%.
Weather could be a factor in this game, which would increase the potential for a run-heavy script 一 there were initial reports of rain. As of now, however, the Monday weather forecast looks clear.