Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Commanders Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Commanders win this season?
The Commanders are predicted to win 7.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Commanders Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The Commanders have the second-largest improvement in strength of schedule from 2021. After facing the most difficult schedule last year, Washington is projected to face the sixth-easiest schedule. After facing an onslaught of elite quarterbacks in 2021, such as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers, the defense has a much easier path to success in 2022.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The front office was aggressive in terms of acquisitions to fix immediate needs and improve on last season. Trading a potential second-round pick in 2023 for Carson Wentz and over-drafting Johan Dotson and Phidarian Mathis well above consensus to upgrade positions of need, indicate the franchise is aggressively focused on short-term results.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The defense struggled on third downs, allowing a 48.5% conversion rate, the second-highest rate in the league, which was 6.7% over expectation. Positive third down regression will be aided by facing the fifth-easiest slate of offenses in terms of efficiency after facing the second-most efficient offenses in 2021.
Field goal luck is also likely to regress in the Commander’s favor as opponents finished with the sixth-highest field goals made over expectation.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Commanders Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Commanders play four teams coming off mini byes that play the Thursday game the previous week. All four of these games occur from Week 10 onward, later in the season when extra rest becomes more of an advantage. Another scheduling disadvantage the Commanders face are three short week road games.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Commanders went 2-4 against division foes in 2021, with both victories coming against the New York Giants, including a Week 18 victory against Jake Fromm.
Washington swapped a couple of offensive linemen and changed quarterbacks but are relatively the same team as last year, while the Eagles and Giants are both trending upward from last year. A similar division record is in the range of outcomes in 2022.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
After finishing with the fifth-worst pass defense DVOA, the Commanders made no significant upgrades to the secondary. The pass defense allowed the third highest passing success rate and was relatively healthy last year. Lacking significant depth, the Commanders could continue to struggle to stop the pass which would be magnified with worse injury luck.
Washington Commanders Strength of Schedule:
The Commanders are ranked #6 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the easiest schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.